童年期居住环境卫生对农村居民中老年期慢性病患病的影响研究

目的探讨童年期居住环境卫生对农村居民中老年期慢性病患病的影响, 并检验童年期健康状况在其中的中介效应。方法基于中国健康与养老追踪调查2018年最新调查和2014年生命历程调查共同访问的12 506名农村居民数据, 运用χ2检验、秩和检验、logistic回归分析模型、倾向评分加权法、负二项回归模型和KHB分析法进行分析。结果调整其他混杂因素后, 相比童年期居住环境卫生较好的农村居民, 童年居住环境卫生较差的中老年农村居民患哮喘风险提高23.7%(OR=1.237, 95%CI:1.060～1.445), 患肝脏疾病、肾脏疾病和消化系统疾病的风险增加16.4%(OR=1.164, 95%CI:1.006～1.347)、22.4%(OR=1.224, 95%CI:1.083～1.383)和19.6%(OR=1.196, 95%CI:1.103～1.296), 患血脂异常和心脏病的可能性上升了26.6%(OR=1.266, 95%CI:1.153～1.390)和13.6%(OR=1.136, 95%CI:1.031～1.253)。负二项回归模型分析结果显示, 童年居住环境卫生较差的中老年农村...     

What attracts and sustain urban poor to informal healthcare practitioners? A study on practitioners' perspectives and patients' experiences in an Indian city

The practice of allopathic medicine by informal healthcare practitioners (IHPs) is ubiquitous in India. However, a little is known about the patients' experiences and IHPs' perspectives. The core questions guided the present study were (1) why do urban poor approach IHPs for healthcare? (2) what are their experiences of availing services from IHPs? and (3) what are the perspectives of IHPs about their practice with the population they serve? A qualitative research design guided the study. The study was conducted in the Gurugram city of Haryana, India. Nine IHPs and twenty‐seven patients who fit into the pre‐established inclusion criteria were interviewed. The findings of the study underline the structural constrains of healthcare access to the poor in India and the mutual dependencies between IHPs and the urban poor. Three themes were emerged corresponding to the perspectives of IHPs, and five themes were generated, which describes patients' experiences and perspectives of availing treatment. The factors that attract and sustain patients to IHPs are a mixture of socio‐economic aspects, which include poverty, inaccessibility, unaffordability, inefficient public healthcare facilities, and the positive behavioural and treatment attributes of the practitioners. The study implies urgent policy interventions to ensure quality healthcare to urban poor.     

基于ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测医保补偿住院费用

目的 探讨ARIMA-GRNN组合模型在城乡居民基本医疗保险的医保补偿住院费用预测中的应用,比较它与ARIMA模型预测的效果。方法 收集2016年1月至2020年12月河南某市城乡居民基本医疗保险的住院补偿费用,使用Matlab R2016a建立ARIMA-GRNN组合模型,使用R 4.0.3建立ARIMA模型,用2020年5月至12月的数据对两模型的预测效果做评价。结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12模型相对最优,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为3998.4、10.9%、5642.9,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为6521.9、16.5%、6675.8。ARIMA-GRNN模型最优光滑因子为0.166,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为4044.5、11.1%、5622.0,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为5831.8、14.8%、6013.7。结论 ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测效果比单纯ARIMA模型好,可短期预测医保补偿住院费用。     

上海市中心城轨道交通网络规划合理规模研究

介绍了估算城市轨道交通网络规划规模的3种方法--几何分析法、运输强度分析法及类比分析法,并结合上海市的实际情况对上海市中心城轨道交通网络规划规模进行了估算。通过对比和分析各种估算结果,提出了上海市中心城轨道交通网络规划的合理规模。     

Single-handed practices – their contribution to an undergraduate teaching network in the first year of the new curriculum

OBJECTIVES: The new curriculum at King's College School of Medicine and Dentistry, which commenced in September 1996, requires all medical undergraduates to have a general practice placement throughout the 5 years of their medical education. DESIGN: This paper discusses recruitment, training and support of teaching practices for the new curriculum, reviews the distribution of single-handed general practices in the network and, via a selection of monitoring and evaluation procedures, discusses the implications of a policy which is inclusive of single-handed practices. The findings relate to the experience of the first semester of the first year of the new curriculum. It also examines the contributions that single-handed practices have made to the teaching network and the kind of support needed, if single-handed practices are to continue to contribute to the King's teaching network. SETTING: King's College School of Medicine and Dentistry. SUBJECTS: Medical undergraduates. RESULTS: The findings of this paper revealed that over a third of general practice provision is via single-handed practices in South-east London. Within the undergraduate teaching network, 10% of practices are single-handed. Students are welcomed and receive a learning experience comparable to those students in larger practices. Attendance at training events has proved difficult for some of these tutors, but the extra input from the department, in order to address this deficit, has not been onerous. Indeed, single-handed practices have not been unique with regard to difficulties in attendance at training events. CONCLUSIONS: The study concludes that single-handed practices can make satisfactory provision for undergraduates in the new curriculum and there is no evidence from this study to suggest otherwise.     

黄浦区社区居民吸烟知信行纵向观察

目的纵向观察黄浦区某社区居民吸烟的知识、态度和行为变化情况,为制定干预措施和评价防治效果提供科学依据信息。方法三阶段分层随机抽样方法。抽取黄浦区15~69岁上海户籍居民,调查1996~2002年吸烟方面的信息。结果吸烟知识、态度等改变均呈良好趋势,但是吸烟行为下降趋势不明显。结论政府应当制定和执行有利于健康的控烟政策和法律、法规,采取宣传、教育与立法相结合的措施,降低中心城区居民的吸烟率,提高中心城区居民的健康水平。     

1996～2001年北京市城区居民吸烟知、信、行变化趋势分析

目的了解北京市城区居民吸烟危害知识、态度、行为变化趋势,为控烟工作提供参考依据。方法采用三阶段整群随机抽样方法,对北京市城区15~69岁常驻居民进行问卷调查,获得16735份有效问卷,率值根据2000年普查结果采用后权重法进行标化处理。结果知晓吸烟易得冠心病率波动在29.41%~39.06%,吸烟易得高血压率21.37%~33.46%;46.61%~61.97%的人赞同禁止烟草广告,31.34%~47.15%的人赞同提高香烟价格;总吸烟率由1996年的34.56%下降到2001年的28.49%,现在吸烟率从30.30%下降到25.07%,戒烟率从4.30%下降到3.28%。结论北京市吸烟干预工作取得一定效果,但吸烟危害健康知识传播尚有待于进一步加强,尤其是对青少年和吸烟者。     

合肥市2003～2005年空气微生物污染状况调查

目的：了解合肥市空气微生物污染情况,并分析造成污染的可能因素.方法：采用自然沉降法于2003～2005年对合肥市95个采样点进行空气细菌总数监测,共采集样品1 355份.结果：3个年度空气细菌总数合格率分别为71%、72%和76%,差别无统计学意义（x^2=2.78,P＞0.01）;各类公共场所空气细菌总数合格率不同,饭店宾馆89%、咖啡厅88%、图书馆86%、美容院82%、普通旅店和饭馆81%、商场80%、医院候诊室70%、理发店50%、歌舞厅9%、乒乓球馆5%,差别有统计学意义（x^2=428.60,P＜0.01）.结论：合肥市空气微生物污染状况受时间、场所等多嘀忠蛩氐挠跋？     

我国城镇职工基本医疗保险道德风险博弈分析

我国城镇职工基本医疗保险长期以来受到道德风险的困扰,道德风险对医疗保险事业的健康发展产生了巨大危害.本文运用博弈论方法,对医疗保险制度中医疗机构、参保人、医疗保险机构之间存在的道德风险博弈条件、博弈过程进行了分析,揭示了医疗保险道德风险存在条件、原因以及必然性.结合博弈分析,提出从破坏博弈条件、干扰破坏博弈过程两个角度防范医疗保险道德风险,具体包括加强道德体系建设、削弱医疗机构侵害医保的利益驱动、加强医疗保险信息化建设、降低博弈发生概率、建立监督激励机制等方面.