Spatial Modeling and Analysis of Heat-Related Morbidity in Maricopa County,Arizona

The objective of the present study was to examine the effects of a confluence of demographic, socioeconomic, housing, and environmental factors that systematically contribute to heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County, Arizona, from theoretical, empirical, and spatial perspectives. The present study utilized ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to analyze health data, U.S. census data, and remotely sensed data. The results suggested that the MGWR model showed a significant improvement in goodness of fit over the OLS regression model, which implies that spatial heterogeneity is an essential factor that influences the relationship between these factors. Populations of people aged 65+, Hispanic people, disabled people, people who do not own vehicles, and housing occupancy rate have much stronger local effects than other variables. These findings can be used to inform and educate local residents, communities, stakeholders, city managers, and urban planners in their ongoing and extensive efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of extreme heat on human health in Maricopa County.     

2005—2015年全国肝癌发病趋势分析

目的 通过分析《中国肿瘤登记年报》中肝癌发病的变化趋势,为有效开展肝癌防治工作提供科学参考依据。 方法 整理2005—2015年肝癌发病数据,运用Joinpoint软件进行回归模型分析我国肝癌发病率变化趋势,利用R软件进行负二项回归模型分析肝癌在人群水平上发病的危险因素。 结果 2005—2015年我国肝癌标化发病率基本表现为农村高于城市,男性高于女性。肝癌标化发病率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-0.818,P<0.05);城乡男性肝癌年龄别发病率大多在30~岁年龄组呈快速上升趋势,农村和城市女性年龄别发病率分别在45~和50~岁年龄组,随时间增长呈快速上升趋势。城市人群的发病风险是农村人群的1.198倍(95%CI:1.041~1.379,P＜0.05),男性是女性的3.715倍(95%CI:3.228~4.275,P＜0.001),每增加5岁,肝癌的发病风险平均增大8.0%(OR=1.080,95%CI:1.077~1.083,P＜0.001)。 结论 2005—2015年我国肝癌发病情况总体呈下降趋势,但存在城乡、性别及年龄差异,需要制定更加有效完善的预防措施,从而达到预防肝癌的最优效果。     

广西农村暗娼安全套坚持使用情况及影响因素分析

目的 了解广西农村地区暗娼人群商业性行为时安全套使用情况及影响因素, 为制定暗娼艾滋病综合干预措施提供参考依据。 方法 采用多级抽样的方法,2019年4—6月在国家和省级暗娼哨点招募农村暗娼进行横断面问卷调查,调查内容包括场所位置、一般人口学信息、艾滋病知识、性行为特征及安全套使用等。用多因素非条件logistic 回归方法分析最近一个月坚持使用安全套的相关因素。 结果 2019年共调查农村暗娼1 350人,平均年龄(42.71±8.62)岁,艾滋病知识知晓率为95.63%(1 291/1 530),最近一次商业性性行为使用安全套比例为94.72%(1 274/1 345),最近一个月商业性性行为每次均使用安全套的比例为87.85%(1 186/1 350)。多因素非条件logistic 回归显示,知晓艾滋病知识(OR=14.857,95%CI:8.196～26.932)是安全套坚持使用的促进因素;交易场所为村屯(OR=0.180,95%CI:0.106～0.304)、30岁及以上年龄(30～岁组,OR=0.275,95%CI:0.090～0.841;50～岁组,OR=0.131,95%CI:0.042～0.407)是安全套坚持使用的障碍因素。 结论 应进一步加强对农村地区、大年龄暗娼人群安全套推广使用等综合干预力度。     

衡阳市人群幽门螺杆菌感染危险因素的病例对照研究

目的 探讨人群幽门螺杆菌（Hp）感染的危险因素,为制定防制对策和措施提供科学依据。方法 以Hp4℃ PCR检测试剂盒对252例研究对象的胃液进行检测,130例阳性者列入病例组,122例阴性者列入对照组,运用病例-对照研究方法作流行病学研究,应用Mantel-Haenszel法及条件Logistic回归作单因素和多因素统计分析。结果 单因素Mantel-Haenszel法及条件Logistic回归分析结果均有显著性意义的因素有：受教育程度、职业、家庭人口数、经济收入、居住面积、饮水来源、喝生水、在外进餐,而居住地仅在Logistic回归分析中有显著性意义。多因素条件Logistic回归分析结果表明,经济收入、喝生水及在外进餐3个因素有非常显著性意义(P=0.000）,比数比（OR）分别为0.700、6.217、9.798。阴性预测正确率77.0%,阳性预测正确率为76.2%,总正确率为76.6%。经济收入与在外进餐之间存在有交互影响（P=0.001）。结论 经常喝生水及在外进餐可显著增加Hp感染的危险性,经济收入越高,Hp感染的危险性越低。经济收入与在外进餐有交互影响。     

意外跌落伤住院儿童转归的影响因素分析

为探讨影响意外跌落伤住院儿童转归的有关因素,提高患儿的住院治疗质量,促进医院建立有效的院内医疗系统,利用多项有序分类反应变量的逐步Logistic回归对3035例0～14岁意外跌落伤住院患儿的转归进行影响因素分析.发现影响转归的因素有住院时间、确诊时间、院前时间、病情程度、受伤部位、并发症、生活环境、手术及术前住院天数、住院费用.结果表明医院要正确处理缩短住院时间与提高治疗效果之间的关系,并通过缩短院前时间、及时确诊、降低并发症、控制病情、降低住院费用、尽量减少术前住院天数,强化和贯彻整体医疗观念等综合措施即可有效地提高意外跌落伤住院儿童的治疗效果.     

Narrative review of prostate cancer grading systems: will the Gleason scores be replaced by the Grade Groups?

The Gleason grading system, proposed by Dr. Donald F. Gleason in 1966, is one of the most important prognostic factors in men with prostate cancer (PCa). At consensus conferences held in 2005 and 2014, organized by the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP), the system was modified to reflect the current diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. In particular, in the 2014 Conference, it was recognized that there were weaknesses with the original and the 2005 ISUP modified Gleason systems. Based on the results of a research conducted by Prof. JI Epstein and his group, a new grading system was proposed by the ISUP in order to address some of such deficiencies: i.e., the five distinct Grade Groups (GGs). Since 2014, results of studies have been published by different groups and societies, including the Genitourinary Pathology Society (GUPS), giving additional support to the prognostic role of the architectural Gleason patterns and, in particular, of the GGs. A revised GG system, taking into account the percentage of Gleason pattern (GP) 4, cribriform and intraductal carcinoma, tertiary GP 5, and reactive stroma grade, has shown to have some advantages, however not ready for adoption in the current practice. The aim of this contribution was to review the major updates and recommendations regarding the GPs and GSs, as well as the GGs, trying to give an answer to the following questions: “How has the grade group system been used in the routine?” and “will the Gleason scoring system be replace by the grade groups?” We also discussed the potential implementation in the future of molecular pathology and artificial intelligence in grading to further define risk groups in patients with PCa.     

Spontaneous regression of lung metastases in hepatocellular carcinoma: A case report

IntroductionSpontaneous regression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a rare condition. However, although there have been multiple reports of spontaneous regression, the definitive pathogenic mechanism of this phenomenon is still unclear.Case presentationWe encountered a case of a 78-year-old man who was undergoing dialysis for end-stage kidney disease with hepatitis C virus-associated chronic hepatitis presenting with HCC. The patient had previously undergone right lobectomy of the liver, but the cancer recurred with multiple lung metastases after 5 months. Approximately 13 months after the initial diagnosis of recurrence, the lung metastases decreased in size and eventually resolved without any anticancer therapy. The patient remains alive for over 41 months after recurrence.DiscussionBased on our case and literature, Hypoxia with hypotension due to hemodialysis can reduce the blood and oxygen supply of the body, which may lead to the spontaneous regression of the metastatic tumors.ConclusionWe herein reported a case of spontaneous regression of HCC undergoing dialysis.     

Clinical prediction models to predict the risk of multiple binary outcomes: a comparison of approaches

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) can predict clinically relevant outcomes or events. Typically, prognostic CPMs are derived to predict the risk of a single future outcome. However, there are many medical applications where two or more outcomes are of interest, meaning this should be more widely reflected in CPMs so they can accurately estimate the joint risk of multiple outcomes simultaneously. A potentially naïve approach to multi‐outcome risk prediction is to derive a CPM for each outcome separately, then multiply the predicted risks. This approach is only valid if the outcomes are conditionally independent given the covariates, and it fails to exploit the potential relationships between the outcomes. This paper outlines several approaches that could be used to develop CPMs for multiple binary outcomes. We consider four methods, ranging in complexity and conditional independence assumptions: namely, probabilistic classifier chain, multinomial logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and a Bayesian probit model. These are compared with methods that rely on conditional independence: separate univariate CPMs and stacked regression. Employing a simulation study and real‐world example, we illustrate that CPMs for joint risk prediction of multiple outcomes should only be derived using methods that model the residual correlation between outcomes. In such a situation, our results suggest that probabilistic classification chains, multinomial logistic regression or the Bayesian probit model are all appropriate choices. We call into question the development of CPMs for each outcome in isolation when multiple correlated or structurally related outcomes are of interest and recommend more multivariate approaches to risk prediction.     

冠状动脉搭桥术后医院感染风险预测模型构建

目的构建冠状动脉搭桥术(CABG)后医院感染的风险预测模型。方法选择2017年6月-2020年6月在郑州市第七人民医院接受CABG治疗的冠心病患者121例,根据术后住院期间是否发生医院感染,分为感染组34例和未感染组87例。采集感染患者临床标本进行病原菌分离和鉴定,收集患者年龄、有无糖尿病、血清白蛋白(ALB)、体外循环时间、术后引流量、引流管留置时间、术后气管插管时间和住院时间等。采用Logistic回归和卡方自动交互检测(CHAID)模型分析CABG术后医院感染的危险因素,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线检测模型的预测效能。结果 121例患者CABG术后有34例患者发生医院感染,感染率为28.10%;术后医院感染患者共分离病原菌29株,主要为肺炎克雷伯菌(27.59%)、大肠埃希菌(20.69%)、铜绿假单胞菌(17.24%);Logistic回归分析显示,年龄>60岁、ALB<30 g/L、体外循环时间>120 min、引流管留置时间>7 d、术后气管插管时间>24 h、住院时间>30 d均为CABG术后医院感染的危险因素;CHAID模型分析显示,引流管留置时间、体外循环时间、年龄及术后气管插管时间均为CABG术后医院感染的危险因素,模型预测的准确性为72.70%(P<0.05);ROC分析显示,Logistic回归模型预测医院感染的AUC为0.808,显著高于CHAID模型预测的0.640(P<0.05)。结论 Logistic回归模型可以有效预测CABG术后医院感染的发生,CHAID模型可以显示各变量的相互关系,可与Logistic回归模型互补应用于临床风险因素分析。     

急诊冠状动脉内支架植入治疗急性心肌梗死——围术期死亡和近期预后的研究

为评价急性心肌梗死(AMI)患者急诊经皮冠状动脉腔内成形(PTCA)和冠状动脉内支架植入围术期死亡和近期预后的影响因素,通过对74例行急诊冠状动脉内支架植入的AMI,术后6个月内的临床随访和冠状动脉造影随访,进行多因素相关回归分析。结果表明,多支病变患者的糖尿病、高血压和高血脂的合并比例明显高于单支病变患者;总围术期内死亡率为5.4％,剔除合并心源性休克患者后,死亡率为1.4％;12例75岁以上的患者中,2例死于心源性休克,1例死于心脏破裂,5例心源性休克患者死亡3例;术中非致命性合并症的发生率在单支和多支病变组之间差异无显著性(P>0.05);多元回归分析表明血流动力学状态和患者的年龄是决定AMI患者围术期死亡的独立相关因素;多支病变患者术后6个月内心脏事件发生率明显高于单支病变组;术前和术后6个月内的患者左心室射血分数(LVEF)明显改善;而且单支和多支病变组之间术后6个月时的LVEF之间无显著性差异。