Training doctors for the year 2000

The World Health Organization's strategy, Health for All by the Year 2000, presents a challenge to those responsible for training doctors. Doctors are needed who are concerned to promote health not just treat disease. A review of the medical undergraduate curriculum is required to achieve this. We describe a small step towards this by the restructuring of a community medicine teaching programme so that students are introduced to health promotion and the principles of Health for All.     

多变量改进GMDH及其在国民经济中的应用

提出了一种计算量小、建立的模型精度高的非线性建模法——带有多变量组合发生器的多变量改进GMDH。用以建立我国工农业总产值和国民收入的动态模型、预测我国将来的经济发展和分析工农业总产值翻两番应采取的政策。     

RNA二级结构的预测

分析了碱基最大配对，极小化自由能、螺旋区组织和基于多序列比较的ＲＮＡ二级结构预测等典型算法的优劣；并比较了ＲＮＡ二级结构的各种显示方式：点阵表示，半圆表示，圆形表示，正多边形表示和树状表示等。最后，讨论了ＲＮＡ二级结构预测在大肠杆菌中外源基因表达水平分析和核酶设计等方面的应用。     

百色市妊娠图设计

根据本地区新生儿出生体重分布情况，确定了百色市孕妇孕１６～４１周子宫底高度、腹围、体重正常值，其范围在标准曲线的第１０百分位数至第９０百分位数之间。经临床验证，可预测７１％的小于胎龄儿，６０％大于胎龄儿，８１％适于胎龄儿，供百色地区作产前诊断参考     

2001年中药工业经济运行分析与2002年市场预测

本文从中药行业的宏观角度，综合分析了中药行业经济发展的现状以及存在的主要问题，特别对2001年中药工业生产，零售市场，进出口，企业经济效益等经济运行情况作了综述性分析。并就2002年中药市场作了前瞻性预测。     

MRI参数预测聚焦超声治疗子宫肌瘤的消融效果研究

目的 探讨子宫肌瘤的相关磁共振成像(MRI)参数在预测子宫肌瘤消融效果方面的价值.方法 回顾性分析上海市徐汇区中心医院超声消融治疗中心2012年4月至2013年12月共91例患者144个子宫肌瘤超声消融治疗的相关数据,分析术前靶肌瘤的血供类型、MRI-T2 WI信号强度比值(SIR)、信号均匀度、信号强度值(SI)和表观弥散系数(ADC)与超声消融疗效的关系,设定MRI参数阈值并分组比较各组间治疗后肌瘤的消融率.结果 少血供和多血供类型的肌瘤平均消融率为89.4％、80.9％(P＜0.05);T2WI SIR＜1.5、≥1.5的肌瘤平均消融率分别为89.1％、83.6％(P＜0.05);T2WI SI＜200、≥200的肌瘤平均消融率分别为89.5％、81.4％ (P＜0.05);ADC＜1.4×10-3 mm2/s、≥1.4×10-3 mm2/s的肌瘤平均消融率分别为88.3％、81.7％(P＜0.05);肌瘤为多血供伴T2 WI SIR≥1.5的消融率低于多血供或少血供伴T2WI SIR＜1.5、少血供伴T2 WI SIR≥1.5(P＜0.05);肌瘤为T2 WI均匀高信号的消融率低于均匀低信号、不均匀高信号、不均匀低信号(P＜0.05).结论 子宫肌瘤的MRI参数可预测超声消融子宫肌瘤的疗效,血供丰富和T2 WI均匀高信号的肌瘤超声消融率较低.     

The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end‐of‐life capacity and financial planning

Planners, actuaries, and others involved in forecasting capacity and costs must manipulate historical data. Data from calendar/financial year totals have been assumed to be adequate and reliable. This relies on the assumption that year‐to‐year differences do not arise from patterns concealed in the data. While the seasonal cycle is widely recognized, longer term patterns such as disease outbreaks will act to modify annual demand and costs. Monthly data relating to deaths in local government areas in England and Wales are used to demonstrate curious semipermanent bursts of high behavior. There is no seasonal pattern for the start of these events, and the sudden switch to high deaths can occur at any time, even in immediately adjacent areas. Higher deaths and related demand and costs endure for around 12 months before they suddenly revert to the former level where they stay until the next of these curious high events. In England and Wales (and many other countries), a period of unexplained higher deaths, reduced life expectancy, and health care and life insurance costs since 2011 appears to be coming to an end and looks to have arisen from a coincidence of these events at sub‐national level.     

Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF,OECD and EC

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.