基于ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测医保补偿住院费用

目的 探讨ARIMA-GRNN组合模型在城乡居民基本医疗保险的医保补偿住院费用预测中的应用,比较它与ARIMA模型预测的效果。方法 收集2016年1月至2020年12月河南某市城乡居民基本医疗保险的住院补偿费用,使用Matlab R2016a建立ARIMA-GRNN组合模型,使用R 4.0.3建立ARIMA模型,用2020年5月至12月的数据对两模型的预测效果做评价。结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12模型相对最优,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为3998.4、10.9%、5642.9,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为6521.9、16.5%、6675.8。ARIMA-GRNN模型最优光滑因子为0.166,其拟合部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为4044.5、11.1%、5622.0,预测部分的MAE、MAPE、RMSE分别为5831.8、14.8%、6013.7。结论 ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测效果比单纯ARIMA模型好,可短期预测医保补偿住院费用。     

A tale of two counties: expanding health insurance coverage for children in California

During difficult economic times, many California counties have expanded health insurance coverage for low-income children. These Children's Health Initiatives (CHIs) enroll children in public programs and provide new health insurance, Healthy Kids, for those ineligible for existing programs. This article describes the policy issues in implementing the Santa Clara and San Mateo County CHIs, as well as the children's enrollment levels and utilization of services. These CHIs are among the first of the thirty California counties planning or implementing such initiatives. Their success depends on leadership from county agencies that have not traditionally worked closely together, as well as the development of a diverse public and private funding base. This effort to provide universal coverage for all children is important to national policymakers desiring similar goals.     

Formal and Informal Costs of Care for People With Dementia Who Experience a Transition to Hospital at the End of Life: A Secondary Data Analysis

ObjectivesTo explore formal and informal care costs in the last 3 months of life for people with dementia, and to evaluate the association between transitions to hospital and usual place of care with costs.DesignCross-sectional study using pooled data from 3 mortality follow-back surveys.Setting and ParticipantsPeople who died with dementia.MethodsThe Client Service Receipt Inventory survey was used to derive formal (health, social) and informal care costs in the last 3 months of life. Generalized linear models were used to explore the association between transitions to hospital and usual place of care with formal and informal care costs.ResultsA total of 146 people who died with dementia were included. The mean age was 88.1 years (SD 6.0), and 98 (67.1%) were female. The usual place of care was care home for 85 (58.2%). Sixty-five individuals (44.5%) died in a care home, and 85 (58.2%) experienced a transition to hospital in the last 3 months. The mean total costs of care in the last 3 months of life were £31,224.7 (SD 23,536.6). People with a transition to hospital had higher total costs (£33,239.2, 95% CI 28,301.8-39,037.8) than people without transition (£21,522.0, 95% CI 17,784.0-26,045.8), mainly explained by hospital costs. People whose usual place of care was care homes had lower total costs (£23,801.3, 95% CI 20,172.0-28,083.6) compared to home (£34,331.4, 95% CI 27,824.7-42,359.5), mainly explained by lower informal care costs.Conclusions and ImplicationsTotal care costs are high among people dying with dementia, and informal care costs represent an important component of end-of-life care costs. Transitions to hospital have a large impact on total costs; preventing these transitions might reduce costs from the health care perspective, but not from patients' and families' perspectives. Access to care homes could help reduce transitions to hospital as well as reduce formal and informal care costs.     

Infectious Disease in a Warming World: How Weather Influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001–2005)

Background

The effects of weather on West Nile virus (WNV) mosquito populations in the United States have been widely reported, but few studies assess their overall impact on transmission to humans.

Objectives

We investigated meteorologic conditions associated with reported human WNV cases in the United States.

Methods

We conducted a case–crossover study to assess 16,298 human WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2005. The primary outcome measures were the incidence rate ratio of disease occurrence associated with mean weekly maximum temperature, cumulative weekly temperature, mean weekly dew point temperature, cumulative weekly precipitation, and the presence of ≥ 1 day of heavy rainfall (≥ 50 mm) during the month prior to symptom onset.

Results

Increasing weekly maximum temperature and weekly cumulative temperature were similarly and significantly associated with a 35–83% higher incidence of reported WNV infection over the next month. An increase in mean weekly dew point temperature was significantly associated with a 9–38% higher incidence over the subsequent 3 weeks. The presence of at least 1 day of heavy rainfall within a week was associated with a 29–66% higher incidence during the same week and over the subsequent 2 weeks. A 20-mm increase in cumulative weekly precipitation was significantly associated with a 4–8% increase in incidence of reported WNV infection over the subsequent 2 weeks.

Conclusions

Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects.     

《癫狂条辨》从痰论治癫狂的学术思想

《癫狂条辨》是中医学第一部系统论述精神疾病的专著,该书以痰为核心病机,对癫狂病的病因、病机、诊法、治法、调护、预后进行了较为详细的论述,提出精神疾病痰热传变脏腑经络的病变规律,运用温中化痰法治疗癫证、清热化痰法治疗狂证,尤其是根据所传之脏腑进行五脏分治,并指出了癫狂的相互转化和善后调护方法,丰富了中医神志病的理论体系。     

Human Rights and Review of the Involuntary Status of Patients with a Mental Illness: Kracke after Momcilovic

Arguably, Australia's most significant judicial pronouncement on the human rights of those with mental illnesses was made in 2009 by Justice Bell, the then President of the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (“VCAT”). The decision is an exhaustive analysis of the application of the Charter of Human Rights and Responsibilities Act 2006 (Vic) to the involuntary status of a person subject to a community treatment order in Victoria. It occurred in the context of delays in the conduct of reviews of the status of a mentally ill person by Victoria's Mental Health Review Board (“the Board”). The outcome of the hearing was a declaration that the Board had breached the person's human rights to a fair hearing, even though the person's involuntary status on a community treatment order was not disturbed by VCAT. Whilst some important aspects of Justice Bell's decision concerning the general methodology to be applied when analysing human rights were overturned in the subsequent Court of Appeal decision of R v Momcilovic [2010] VSCA 50, the latter decision did not concern mental health and so leaves Kracke as the most detailed articulation and analysis of human rights within this difficult sphere.     

慢性鼻窦炎患儿家长疾病知识认知度调查

目的了解鼻窦炎患儿家长对儿童鼻窦炎相关知识的认知情况,为进一步加强卫生宣教、预防儿童鼻窦炎提供理论依据。方法对65名鼻窦炎患儿家长进行关于儿童鼻窦炎发病因素、临床表现、并发症以及对儿童生长发育影响等问题的问卷调查。结果调查显示95.4%的家长对儿童鼻窦炎知识缺乏了解,且知识获得途径单一。结论应通过各种途径加强儿童鼻窦炎知识的宣教,积极预防儿童鼻窦炎。     

2009-2010年度广元市流感监测

目的了解广元市流感流行特征与流感病毒亚型分布情况,分析其流行趋势,为流感防控提供科学依据。方法 收集2009-2010年度广元市各哨点医院流感样病例(Influenza-Like Illness)监测资料、病原学监测结果及暴发疫情信息,用统计学方法对监测结果进行分析。结果2009—2010年度全市哨点医院共报告流感样病例(ILI)8 702例,流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)平均为2.95%(8 702/295 490)。采集流感样病例标本327份,病原学检测阳性率为59.02%,其中新甲型H1N1占70.98%,其次季节性流感甲型H3亚型占15.54%。本年度发生流感样病例聚集性暴发疫情15起,多发生在中小学校和监管场所等处。结论新型甲型H1N1是2009-2010年度广元市流感流行的优势型别,暴发疫情多发生人群聚集的环境。     

Lifetime Doctor-Diagnosed Mental Health Conditions and Current Substance Use Among Gay and Bisexual Men Living in Vancouver,Canada

Background: Studies have found that gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) have higher rates of mental health conditions and substance use than heterosexual men, but are limited by issues of representativeness. Objectives: To determine the prevalence and correlates of mental health disorders among GBM in Metro Vancouver, Canada. Methods: From 2012 to 2014, the Momentum Health Study recruited GBM (≥16 years) via respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to estimate population parameters. Computer-assisted self-interviews (CASI) collected demographic, psychosocial, and behavioral information, while nurse-administered structured interviews asked about mental health diagnoses and treatment. Multivariate logistic regression using manual backward selection was used to identify covariates for any lifetime doctor diagnosed: (1) alcohol/substance use disorder and (2) any other mental health disorder. Results: Of 719 participants, 17.4% reported a substance use disorder and 35.2% reported any other mental health disorder; 24.0% of all GBM were currently receiving treatment. A lifetime substance use disorder diagnosis was negatively associated with being a student (AOR = 0.52, 95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.27–0.99) and an annual income ≥$30,000 CAD (AOR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21–0.67) and positively associated with HIV-positive serostatus (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.63–3.96), recent crystal methamphetamine use (AOR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.69–4.40) and recent heroin use (AOR = 5.59, 95% CI: 2.39–13.12). Any other lifetime mental health disorder diagnosis was negatively associated with self-identifying as Latin American (AOR = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.08–0.81), being a refugee or visa holder (AOR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.05–0.65), and living outside Vancouver (AOR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.33–0.82), and positively associated with abnormal anxiety symptomology scores (AOR = 3.05, 95% CI: 2.06–4.51). Conclusions: Mental health conditions and substance use, which have important implications for clinical and public health practice, were highly prevalent and co-occurring.     

Hidden caring,hidden carers? Exploring the experience of carers for people with long‐term conditions

Informal carers make a significant contribution to illness management in communities, but many struggle to access support and remain ‘hidden carers’. We aimed to explore how carers of people with common long‐term conditions (LTCs, such as coronary heart disease or kidney disease) conceptualised their caring, and whether they struggled to identify themselves with the term ‘carer’ or access for support. We conducted semi‐structured interviews with 19 informal carers of people with LTCs recruited from local support groups. Topic guides were designed to encourage participants to provide their retrospective accounts of identifying as a carer or struggling to do so. Data were analysed using the constant comparative method. The study was designed collaboratively with a patient and public involvement (PPI) partner, and we consulted with a PPI steering group of people with lived experience of caring during the study. Results showed how participants drew on comparisons with those caring for more dependent relatives in explaining their reluctance to define themselves as a carer, and resisted adopting the label due to concerns that it would threaten the identity of the cared‐for person. The data were interpreted in terms of types of ‘work’ undertaken to manage LTCs, and revealed that carers of patients with LTCs appear to primarily engage in biographical and emotional support, which may be more difficult to conceptualise as legitimate caring ‘work’. Participants indicated that health professionals may be in a unique position to validate their role as carers and encourage support seeking. The study suggests how the greater focus on self‐management of LTCs in the community must be complemented by recognition of this group as potentially ‘hidden carers’, who support the patient to minimise the impact the illness has on their lives and consequently may minimise their own caring role, with negative implications for support seeking.