Activation of Stratification Strategies and Results of the interventions on frail patients of Healthcare Services (ASSEHS) DG Sanco Project No. 2013 12 04

To face the challenge of active and healthy ageing (AHA), European Health Systems and services should move towards proactive, anticipatory and integrated care. Health care systems thus need to personalize services, put patients at the centre of care and provide services using the adequate resources. Population health risk management is emphasized through the use of tools to stratify people with chronic diseases according to their risk. Effective screening of frailty is vital for optimizing the care of frail populations at risk. The Activation of Stratification Strategies and Results of the interventions on frail patients of Healthcare Services (ASSEHS) EU project (N° 2013 12 04) is an international effort whose aim is to bring together stratification-related professionals from Health Services, Academia and Research in the EU in order to (i) study current existing health risk stratification strategies and tools, (ii) spread their use and application on frail elderly patients, (iii) minimize deterioration of conditions and/or (iv) prevent emergency or hospital admissions. The analysis of Risk Stratification in different Health Systems will generate conclusions and risk stratification solutions, which will be transferable to a variety of regions in the future. ASSEHS is in line with Area 4 of the B3 Action Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA).     

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Plaque in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) has been shown to predict cardiovascular (CV) risk in multiple large studies. Careful evaluation of CIMT studies reveals discrepancies in the comprehensiveness with which CIMT is assessed—the number of carotid segments evaluated (common carotid artery [CCA], internal carotid artery [ICA], or the carotid bulb), the type of measurements made (mean or maximum of single measurements, mean of the mean, or mean of the maximum for multiple measurements), the number of imaging angles used, whether plaques were included in the intima-media thickness (IMT) measurement, the report of adjusted or unadjusted models, risk association versus risk prediction, and the arbitrary cutoff points for CIMT and for plaque to predict risk. Measuring the far wall of the CCA was shown to be the least variable method for assessing IMT. However, meta-analyses suggest that CCA-IMT alone only minimally improves predictive power beyond traditional risk factors, whereas inclusion of the carotid bulb and ICA-IMT improves prediction of both cardiac risk and stroke risk. Carotid plaque appears to be a more powerful predictor of CV risk compared with CIMT alone. Quantitative measures of plaques such as plaque number, plaque thickness, plaque area, and 3-dimensional assessment of plaque volume appear to be progressively more sensitive in predicting CV risk than mere assessment of plaque presence. Limited data show that plaque characteristics including plaque vascularity may improve CV disease risk stratification further. IMT measurement at the CCA, carotid bulb, and ICA that allows inclusion of plaque in the IMT measurement or CCA-IMT measurement along with plaque assessment in all carotid segments is emerging as the focus of carotid artery ultrasound imaging for CV risk prediction.     

社区2型糖尿病视网膜病变风险预测模型的构建与验证

背景　糖尿病视网膜病变（DR）发病率高,危害性大,是导致成人失明的主要原因,但社区实施眼底筛查较为困难,而DR风险预测模型可帮助全科医生早期识别DR高危人群。目的　探讨社区门诊就诊的2型糖尿病患者发生DR的危险因素,构建并验证DR风险预测模型,进一步提高DR患者筛查效率。方法　收集2018年6月-2019年6月于方庄社区卫生服务中心门诊就诊的421例2型糖尿病患者,采用随机数字表法分为模型组336例,检验组85例。收集患者的一般资料,血压以及空腹血糖（FBG）、餐后2 h血糖、糖化血红蛋白（HbA1c）、血肌酐、尿素氮、总胆固醇（TC）、三酰甘油（TG）、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）及尿蛋白,均行非散瞳眼底彩色照相（NMFCS）。模型组采用单因素Logistic回归分析计算出发生DR的相关因素,得出的相关因素用多因素Logistic回归分析进一步探讨,在此基础上构建DR风险预测模型,并由检验组评估DR风险预测模型的可行性。结果　在421例2型糖尿病患者中DR患者共87例,其中模型组69例,检验组18例。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,DR的危险因素有病程（β=0.196,OR=1.217,P<0.001）,收缩压（SBP）（β=0.028,OR=1.028,P=0.038）,FBG（β=0.409,OR=1.506,P=0.003）,HbA1c（β=0.594,OR=1.811,P=0.001）,LDL-C（β=0.360,OR=1.434,P=0.038）。据此,构建的DR风险预测模型为Y=1/〔1+e-（0.196X1+0.028X2+0.409X3+0.594X4+0.360X5-16.482）〕,其中,Y指DR发生概率,X1指病程,X2指SBP,X3指FBG,X4指HbA1c,X5指LDL-C。DR风险预测模型预测模型组发生DR的ROC曲线下面积是0.884,诊断临界值是0.192。DR风险预测模型预测检验组发生DR的ROC曲线下面积是0.803,灵敏度为72.2%,特异度为79.1%。结论　糖尿病患者的病程、SBP、FBG、HbA1c、LDL-C与DR显著相关,DR风险预测模型对DR有一定的预测价值。     

慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者合并抑郁的COX风险预测模型

背景　慢性乙型病毒性肝炎是我国流行最广、危害最重的传染病,抑郁是其常见并发症,轻者情绪低落,重者不仅可加重固有疾病、甚至可出现轻生行为,目前常用治疗措施疗效不理想,积极预防护理成为医护人员关注的重点。目的　构建慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者合并抑郁的COX风险预测模型。方法　选择2017年6月-2018年5月川北医学院附属医院收治的慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者245例为研究对象,随访慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者合并抑郁的情况。完成数据预处理后,所有因素均进入单因素及多元COX风险因素分析,并构建风险预测模型,采用列线图展示预测模型,受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评价模型区分度,采用calibration plot曲线评价模型准确度,采用临床决策曲线（DCA）评价模型的有效性。结果　单因素分析结果显示不同年龄、职业、学历、乙肝分度、感染时间、确诊时间、复发次数、家庭地位、婚姻满意度、担心疾病难以根治、担心住院环境、疾病分期、有无并发症、对治疗是否有信心慢性乙型病毒性肝炎患者的抑郁发生率比较,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。多元COX风险因素分析结果显示：RR=-1.446 1×（职业为知识分子）-0.688 7×（学历高中或中专）-2.043 0×（经常饮酒）-0.783 5×（偶尔吸烟）-1.068 2×（经常吸烟）-0.894 0×（确诊时间0.5~5年）-1.092 4×（确诊时间<0.5年）+1.335 2×（家庭地位不满意）+1.345 1×（婚姻不满意）-0.574 3×（不担心住院环境不适宜）。本研究构建的COX风险预测模型的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.979 8,模型预测特异度0.972 5,灵敏度0.940 7,准确度为0.954 9,阳性似然比为34.180 2,阴性似然比为0.060 9,诊断价值比为560.916 7,阳性预测值为0.976 9,阴性预测值为0.929 8,模型的区分度较高。在模型准确度评价上：当事件发生率在16%以下时,模型高估风险;当事件发生率在16%~40%时,模型低估风险;当事件发生率在40%~80%时,模型高估风险;当事件发生率在80%~100%时,模型低估风险;而在16%、40%、80%时候,模型预测和观察值完全一致,整体上看本模型构建的准确度较好。临床决策曲线显示模型的净获益（NB）值较高,提示基于本模型预测结果开展临床决策产生的效果能给患者病情带来较好的获益值。结论　本次构建的慢性乙型病毒性肝炎合并抑郁的风险预测模型可用于预测新诊断慢性乙型病毒性肝炎合并抑郁的风险,从而指导临床医护人员进行针对性的干预措施,最终避免或降低患者合并抑郁的可能性,值得临床推广应用。     

Survival of Transcatheter Mitral Valve Repair Compared With Surgical and Conservative Treatment in High-Surgical-Risk Patients

ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to compare survival between transcatheter mitral valve (MV) repair using MitraClip system (Abbott Vascular, Santa Clara, California), MV-surgery, and conservative treatment in high-surgical-risk patients symptomatic with severe mitral valve regurgitation (MR).BackgroundUp to 50% of patients with symptomatic severe MR are denied for surgery due to high perioperative risk. Transcatheter MV repair might be an alternative.MethodsConsecutive patients (n = 139) treated with transcatheter MV repair were included. Comparator surgically (n = 53) and conservatively (n = 59) treated patients were identified retrospectively. Surgical risk was based on the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (log EuroSCORE) or the presence of relevant risk factors, as judged by the heart team.ResultsThe log EuroSCORE was higher in the transcatheter MV repair group (23.9 ± 16.1%) than in the surgically (14.2 ± 8.9%) and conservatively (18.7 ± 13.2%, p < 0.0001) treated patients. Left ventricular ejection fraction was higher in surgical patients (43.9 ± 14.4%, p = 0.003), with similar values for the transcatheter MV repair (36.8 ± 15.3%) and conservatively treated (34.5 ± 16.5%) groups. After 1 year of follow-up, the transcatheter MV repair and surgery groups showed similar survival rates (85.8% and 85.2%, respectively), whereas 67.7% of conservatively treated patients survived. The same trend was observed after the second and third years. After weighting for propensity score and controlling for risk factors, both the transcatheter MV repair (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.22 to 0.78, p = 0.006) and surgical (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p = 0.014) groups showed better survival than the conservatively treated group. The transcatheter MV repair and surgical groups did not differ (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.72 to 2.16, p = 0.430).ConclusionsDespite a higher log EuroSCORE, high-surgical-risk patients with symptomatic severe MR treated with transcatheter MV repair show similar survival rates compared with surgically treated patients, with both displaying survival benefit compared with conservative treatment.     

抑郁症自杀行为简易预测模型构建及其预测价值研究

背景　抑郁症作为最常见的心境障碍之一,具有患病率高、复发率高、致残率高和致死率高等特点,给患者造成巨大的疾病负担,甚至出现自杀行为。但是,目前快速筛查抑郁症患者自杀行为的手段相对有限。目的　调查影响抑郁症患者出现自杀行为的心理社会因素,建立抑郁症患者自杀行为简易预测模型,为抑郁症患者自杀防治工作提供参考依据。方法　采用整群抽样方法选择2018年1-12月在南昌大学第二附属医院和南昌大学第一附属医院就诊的抑郁症患者为调查对象,采用一般情况问卷、抑郁自评量表（SDS）、焦虑自评量表（SAS）和Landeiman社会支持量表进行调查,采用多因素Logistic回归分析探讨抑郁症患者出现自杀行为的影响因素,Risk score法构建抑郁症患者自杀行为简易预测模型,并检测其预测效果。结果　共发放问卷2 233份,回收有效问卷2 090份,问卷有效回收率为93.60%。2 090例抑郁症患者中,142例（6.79%）出现自杀行为。经常吸烟、重度饮酒、既往抑郁发作次数≥1次、既往因抑郁症住院次数≥1次、伴焦虑症状、伴精神病性症状、伴自杀意念、有精神障碍家族史、正在用抗抑郁药物、有其他内外科疾病的抑郁症患者自杀行为比例高（P<0.05）。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,既往抑郁发作次数≥1次〔OR=4.308,95%CI（3.547,5.232）〕、伴焦虑症状〔OR=2.329,95%CI（1.201,4.518）〕、伴精神病性症状〔OR=2.492,95%CI（1.448,4.287）〕、伴自杀意念〔OR=4.044,95%CI（2.305,7.096）〕、SAS标准分高〔OR=1.036,95%CI（1.003,1.071）〕均是抑郁症患者自杀行为的危险因素（P<0.05）,正在用抗抑郁药物〔OR=0.110,95%CI（0.057,0.212）〕是抑郁症患者自杀行为的保护因素（P<0.05）。基于Logistic回归建立的Risk score预测模型为：Risk score=40.56×既往抑郁发作次数+23.50×伴焦虑症状+25.36×伴精神病性症+38.81×伴自杀意念-61.25×正在用抗抑郁药物+1.00×SAS标准分。按照Risk score预测模型绘制的受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下面积（AUC）为0.920〔95%CI（0.907,0.931）〕,Youden指数最大时为0.7,截断值为193.23分,灵敏度为76.8%,特异度为94.2%。结论　抑郁症患者自杀行为发生率较高,既往抑郁发作次数≥1次、伴焦虑症状、伴精神病性症状、伴自杀意念、SAS标准分高均为抑郁症患者自杀行为的危险因素。基于Logistic回归建立的Risk score预测模型预测抑郁症患者自杀行为的灵敏度为76.8%,特异度为94.2%。