某城市不同活动场所男男性行为人群特征和规模估计的研究

目的 了解中国某城市实体活动场所和虚拟活动场所男男性行为(MSM)人群的特征、安全性行为特点和人群规模.方法 在MSM活动的实体和虚拟场所开展现场调查,运用单样本人群规模估计法(LMS法)进行人群规模估计.结果 该市在实体场所中活动的MSM以24～43岁年龄组为主,一般拥有中等学历,在虚拟场所中活动的MSM以29岁以下年龄组为主,具有较高学历,有部分是在校学生.实体和虚拟场所中的MSM对艾滋病的知晓情况和安全性行为特点等的差异无统计学意义.城区实体和虚拟场所MSM规模分别占21.22%(16383人,95%CI:11514～21252)和78.78%(60830人,95%CI:57327～64329).考虑到两类场所人群部分重复,城区MSM规模应介于60830～77213人,约占15～64岁性活跃期男性人数的5.03%～6.38%.结论 该市城区MSM规模较大,不同活动场所的MSM特征不尽一致,以在虚拟场所活动为主.应重视在互联网等虚拟场所实施有针对性的艾滋病防制策略.

Abstract：

Objective To study the features,safe Sex behavior and the size of men who have sex with men(MSM)population in actuaI and virtual venues in one city.Methods We carried out a cross-sectional study in actual and virtual venues,using the Estimated Size of Population from a Single Sample(LMS method)to estimate the size of MSM population.Results Most MSM in actual venues were 24-43 year olds and had received high school education,whereas in virtual venues,the majority of this population were younger than 29 years old and had higher education,including some college students.The awareness of AIDS of the two groups from different venues showed no statistically significant difierence,neither the safe sex behaviors.Proportions of the MSM population in actual and virtuaI venues were 21.22%(16 383,95%CI:11514-21252)and 78.78%(60830,95%CI:57327-64329),respectively.After adjusting the overlapping part of the MSM from both venues,the total number was between 60 830 and 77213,constituting a proportion of 5.03%-6.38%in the sexually active male population(15-64 year olds)in this city.Conclusion The size of the MSM population was large but the characteristics were different in the actual or virtual venues.As most MSM preferred going to the virtual venues,intervention program on AIDS-specific strategy in this area,in particular dealing with the Internet,should be strenthened.     

邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模调查估计

目的调查估计邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模,分析影响评估结果的因素。方法结合乘数法和捕获-再捕获法对邯郸市男性同性恋活动场所进行调查估计。结果计算得出男性同性恋人群为1 453人,95%可信区间为（1 227,1 681）。结论捕获-再捕获法和乘数法都是比较可行的对男同性恋人群进行规模估计的间接方法。用时短,花费低,适合在卫生资源有限的情况下进行艾滋病高危人群的规模估计。     

A note on fractal dimensions of biomedical waveforms

In this paper, we study performance of Katz method of computing fractal dimension of waveforms, and its estimation accuracy is compared with Higuchi's method. The study is performed on four synthetic parametric fractal waveforms for which true fractal dimensions can be calculated, and real sleep electroencephalogram. The dependence of Katz's fractal dimension on amplitude, frequency and sampling frequency of waveforms is noted. Even though the Higuchi's method has given more accurate estimation of fractal dimensions, the study suggests that the results of Katz's based fractal dimension analysis of biomedical waveforms have to be carefully interpreted.     

Integrated feature and parameter optimization for an evolving spiking neural network: Exploring heterogeneous probabilistic models

This study introduces a quantum-inspired spiking neural network (QiSNN) as an integrated connectionist system, in which the features and parameters of an evolving spiking neural network are optimized together with the use of a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm. We propose here a novel optimization method that uses different representations to explore the two search spaces: A binary representation for optimizing feature subsets and a continuous representation for evolving appropriate real-valued configurations of the spiking network. The properties and characteristics of the improved framework are studied on two different synthetic benchmark datasets. Results are compared to traditional methods, namely a multi-layer-perceptron and a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC). A previously used real world ecological dataset on invasive species establishment prediction is revisited and new results are obtained and analyzed by an ecological expert. The proposed method results in a much faster convergence to an optimal solution (or a close to it), in a better accuracy, and in a more informative set of features selected.     

北京市2009年甲型H1N1流感实际感染人数的估算

目的 估算北京市2009年甲型H1N1流感的实际感染人数.方法 采用基于蒙特卡罗方法编制的乘法模型Impact 2009 v 1.0软件,根据北京市流感样病例数、流感样病例中甲型H1N1流感阳性率及流感样病例二级以上医院就诊率等参数,估算北京市2009年甲型H1N1流感的实际感染水平.结果 经估算,北京市2009年约有180万人(90%CI:146万～230万)已感染甲型H1N1流感,感染率约为11.0%.发现1例实验室确诊病例实际代表167例感染病例.0～4岁组和5～14岁组人群的感染率最高,分别为32.5%和33.3%.结论 甲型H1N1流感报告病例仅是实际感染人群中的小部分,估算发病地区实际感染水平具有较强的实际意义.     

日本福岛核事故四年来的影响及教训

目的 探讨日本福岛核事故发生四年来的影响及其教训。方法 2011年因日本大地震引发海啸而导致的福岛核事故。此事件是人类史上继切尔诺贝利核事故后的第二个被评为第七级事件的核事故。分析福岛核事故四年来对生物和环境的影响,并总结应该从中吸取的教训。结果 福岛核事故后,环境外照射剂量率增高,主要来自福岛核电站泄露的¹³⁴Cs和¹³⁷Cs,同时也在人母乳中检测到¹³¹I的污染,对人和环境产生最严重影响的放射性核素¹³¹I和¹³⁷Cs的范围分别为100~500 PBq和6~20 PBq。经过调查,发现日本福岛县中、重度污染区野生小鼠(Apodemus argenteus)和家鼠(Mus musculus)的脾脏淋巴细胞的染色体畸变率明显增加。结论 福岛核事故四年来对人类健康、其他生物和环境造成了较大影响。从事故后的人员撤离、健康管理、信息沟通和灾后重建等方面应该吸取诸多教训。     

Repeatability of estimated fetal weight: Comparison between MR imaging versus 2D ultrasound in at- and near-term patients

IntroductionOur aim was to evaluate the intra- and inter-observer variability and the impact of operator experience on the estimation of fetal weight (EFW) as measured by 2-dimensional ultrasound (2D-US) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging.Material and methodsWe estimated fetal weight in 46 singleton pregnancies at 35.6–41.4 weeks gestation using 2D-US according to the Hadlock formula and using MR imaging according to the equation developed by Baker. Each examination was performed twice, once by an inexperienced operator and once by an experienced operator. The MR-EFW was derived from the planimetric measurement of fetal body volume (FBV) using an assisted semi-automated method. Intra- and inter-observer variability was evaluated by Bland-Altman analysis. Regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of maternal BMI, delivery weight, diabetes and fetal gender on the differences in US-EFW between the inexperienced and experienced operators.ResultsUS-EFW showed higher intra-observer variability than MR-EFW, irrespective of operator experience. The 95% limits of agreement of MR were narrower compared with those of the US measurements. Similarly, US-EFW showed higher inter-observer variability than MR-EFW. MR-EFW improvement over 2D-US for the limits of agreement was 77.9% for intra-observer variability and 74.5% for inter-observer variability. Regression analysis showed that the differences between US-EFW measurements were not related to any of the tested variables.ConclusionsOperator experience has a marginal impact on the variability of US-EFW and no impact on MR-EFW variability. The variability in US-EFW measurements is unpredictable.     

长期护理保险基金筹资负担的测算——基于8城长护险试点方案的比较分析

本文使用宏观与微观数据,建立马尔可夫模型,预测2021—2030年全国失能老人规模,并对预测结果进行校准缩减误差率。基于试点政策测算第二批8城长护险试点方案的筹资负担,探究长护险筹资方案的完善方向。发现2021—2030年同期重度失能老人规模在校准后增加5%～7%,支出压力上涨6%,收不抵支节点的出现提前1—2年。针对此情况提出北京、开封方案需设置动态筹资增长率,以社会医疗保险缴费基数为基础的南宁、福州方案考虑调整筹资比例等建议。