2008-2018年云南省人间布鲁菌病流行特征及灰色GM(1,1)模型预测

目的分析云南省布鲁菌病(简称布病)流行特征,建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测云南省布病病情。方法收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统和云南省统计局2008-2018年云南省布病疫情数据和人口资料,分析布病流行病学特征(包括时间、地区、人群分布),并以灰色GM(1,1)模型进行建模,预测2019、2020年云南省布病发病率。结果2008-2018年云南省共报告布病病例1216例,年均发病率为0.2374/10万,呈逐年递增趋势(χ²趋势=843.34,P<0.01)。病例报告主要集中在3-9月份,占总病例数的69.41%(844/1216)。病例报告数居前5位的州市分别为红河州(289例)、曲靖市(264例)、昆明市(258例)、大理州(160例)、玉溪市(134例),占总病例数的90.87%(1105/1216)。职业以农民为主,占79.03%(961/1216)。建立灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2019、2020年云南省布病发病率分别为0.4876/10万和0.4817/10万。结论云南省布病发病较以往上升,应对重点地区、重点人群进行针对性防控,并对预测结果进行前瞻性评价,逐步完善云南省布病预测模型。     

Hybrid Approach to Estimation of Underreporting of Tuberculosis Case Notification in High-Burden Settings With Weak Surveillance Infrastructure: Design and Implementation of an Inventory Study

BackgroundThe greatest risk of infectious disease undernotification occurs in settings with limited capacity to detect it reliably. World Health Organization guidance on the measurement of misreporting is paradoxical, requiring robust, independent systems to assess surveillance rigor. Methods are needed to estimate undernotification in settings with incomplete, flawed, or weak surveillance systems. This study attempted to design a tuberculosis (TB) inventory study that balanced rigor with feasibility for high-need settings.ObjectiveThis study aims to design a hybrid TB inventory study for contexts without World Health Organization preconditions. We estimated the proportion of TB cases that were not reported to the Ministry of Health in 2015. The study sought to describe TB surveillance coverage and quality at different levels of TB care provision. Finally, we aimed to identify structural-, facility-, and provider-level barriers to notification and reasons for underreporting, nonreporting, and overreporting.MethodsRetrospective partial digitalization of paper-based surveillance and facility records preceded deterministic and probabilistic record linkage; a hybrid of health facilities and laboratory census with a stratified sampling of HFs with no capacity to notify leveraged a priori knowledge. Distinct extrapolation methods were applied to the sampled health facilities to estimate bacteriologically confirmed versus clinical TB. In-depth interviews and focus groups were used to identify causal factors responsible for undernotification and test the acceptability of remedies.ResultsThe hybrid approach proved viable and instructive. High-specificity verification of paper-based records in the field was efficient and had minimal errors. Limiting extrapolation to clinical cases improved precision. Probabilistic record linkage is computationally intensive, and the choice of software influences estimates. Record absence, decay, and overestimation of the private sector TB treatment behavior threaten validity, meriting mitigation. Data management demands were underestimated. Treatment success was modest in all sectors (R=37.9%–72.0%) and did not align with treatment success reported by the state (6665/8770, 75.99%). One-fifth of TB providers (36/178, 20%) were doubtful that the low volume of patients with TB treated in their facility merited mastery of the extensive TB notification forms and procedures.ConclusionsSubnational inventory studies can be rigorous, relevant, and efficient in countries that need them even in the absence of World Health Organization preconditions, if precautions are taken. The use of triangulation techniques, with minimal recourse to sampling and extrapolation, and the privileging of practical information needs of local decision makers yield reasonable misreporting estimates and viable policy recommendations.     

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications,Malawi

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.     

Prevalence of Vision Loss and Associations With Age-Related Eye Diseases Among Nursing Home Residents Aged ≥65 Years

ObjectivesTo examine data from Delaware nursing homes to determine prevalence of age-related eye diseases (AREDs), vision impairment, and blindness and to compare the findings with the results of 11 US investigations of vision and eye health in nursing homes.DesignThis is a cross-sectional, retrospective study of nursing home patients.Setting and ParticipantsTwenty nursing homes in Delaware participated in the study, yielding comprehensive eye examination records for 2019 study participants.MethodsSummary statistics and regression analyses.ResultsThe overall prevalence of vision impairment or blindness was 63.8% and was above 60% for each age, sex, and race category. Prevalence of vision impairment or blindness was 68.4% among patients with cataracts, 69.4% among patients with macular degeneration, 70.5% among patients with glaucoma, and 68.4% among patients with diabetic retinopathy. Prevalence of blindness was 14.1%. Among patients with AREDs, prevalence of blindness ranged from 15.0% for patients with cataracts to 22.6% for patients with diabetic retinopathy. When compared with other investigations, we found wide variation in vision and eye factors reported and wide variation in the prevalence of those factors. Only 4 studies diagnosed both AREDs and visual function. Seven studies reported AREDs, and 7 reported vision impairment and/or blindness. Vision impairment or blindness ranged from 29% to 67%; cataract ranged from 32% to 83%; macular degeneration ranged from 4.6% to 70.7%. Glaucoma ranged from 5.3% to 41.4%; diabetic retinopathy ranged from 1.7% to 3.1%.Conclusions and ImplicationsComprehensive eye examinations showed that vision impairment and blindness affected 63.8% of nursing home residents. Compared with other studies, there was a wide range of vision factors reported and wide variation in the prevalence of vision impairment or blindness and AREDs. This investigation suggests the importance of eye care in nursing homes and the importance of reporting standard vision and eye health factors to inform policy and practice.     

2017-2019年某医院综合ICU医院感染目标监测分析

目的分析某医院综合重症医学科(ICU)医院感染目标性监测情况。方法对2017-2019年宁夏回族自治区人民医院ICU目标性监测数据,包括医院感染发病率、医院感染部位分布、三管使用及其相关感染、医院感染病原菌分布等进行回顾性分析。结果共监测ICU患者4953例,医院感染发病率为6.42%,医院感染例次发病率为8.46%;感染部位以呼吸系统为主占73.03%;泌尿道插管相关泌尿道感染(CAUTI)、血管导管相关血流感染(CRBSI)、呼吸机相关肺炎(VAP)感染发病率分别为1.50‰、2.46‰和13.66‰;检出病原菌356株,前三位依次为鲍氏不动杆菌、肺炎克雷伯菌和金黄色葡萄球菌。结论医院ICU医院感染发病率较高,感染部位以呼吸系统为主,分离病原菌以革兰阴性菌为主,总器械使用率高,提示临床应严格留置导管指征,对VAP等医院感染高危因素及时采取有效地预防措施,降低感染风险,保障患者安全。     

德尔菲法构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系

目的 构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,为指导学生传染病症状监测预警工作提供科学依据。方法 在文献查阅基础上,通过两轮德尔菲法专家咨询筛选学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标,并通过层次分析法和专家评分法确立指标权重,构建指标体系。结果 32位专家两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为87.5%(28/32)和100.0%(28/28),专家平均权威系数(Cr)为0.792,第二轮咨询专家协调系数为0.245(χ²=459.416,P<0.001),经指标筛选,形成由6项一级指标、19项二级指标和43项三级指标构成的学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系。6项一级指标权重从高到低依次为信息质量(0.2281)、学校管理(0.2123)、疾控管理(0.1927)、预警信息管理(0.1450)、系统维护(0.2)和预警效果评价(0.1108)。结论 本研究建立了学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,本体系专家积极程度和权威程度较高,意见趋于一致,可为国内学生传染病症状监测工作提供参考。     

High Case-Fatality Rate for Human Anthrax,Northern Ghana, 2005–2016

The human cutaneous anthrax case-fatality rate is ≈1% when treated, 5%–20% when untreated. We report high case-fatality rates (median 35.0%; 95% CI 21.1%–66.7%) during 2005–2016 linked to livestock handling in northern Ghana, where veterinary resources are limited. Livestock vaccination and access to human treatment should be evaluated.     

Surveillance of COVID-19–Associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children,South Korea

A concerning development during the coronavirus disease pandemic has been multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. Reports of this condition in East Asia have been limited. In South Korea, 3 cases were reported to the national surveillance system for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. All case-patients were hospitalized and survived with no major disease sequelae.     

淮南市区华支睾吸虫病流行危险因素的研究

目的调查淮南市区华支睾吸虫病流行的危险因素。方法现场采集豆螺、沼螺,用直接压片法分离尾蚴,并感染淡水鱼,分离囊蚴,用该囊蚴感染家猫,分离成虫;对市区部分居民作现场查询、体检和粪检,以确定有无华支睾吸虫感染及伴随症状。结果从现场捕获的豆螺、沼螺体内可分离出有尾鞘的单尾蚴,用该尾蚴感染淡水鱼可获囊蚴,用该囊蚴感染家猫可获华支睾吸虫成虫;从淮南市区部分居民粪便中及其放养家猪粪便中均可检出华支睾吸虫卵;市区部分居民有炊事时菜刀、砧板生熟不分和生食或半生食淡水鱼虾的习惯,等等。结论 淮南市区存在多种华支睾吸虫病流行的危险因素,各危险因素构成华支睾吸虫病在淮南市区传播和流行。     

五年住院病人医院感染率分析

目的 :了解五年中医院感染的动态变化情况 ,为控制医院感染提供依据。方法 :科室自报和专职人员补漏相结合 ,发现医院感染病例 ,调查所有住院病人。结果 :1994年 7月～ 1998年 10月 ,某医院住院病人共计 5 9413例 ,发生医院感染 362 2例次 ,总医院感染率 6 10 % ,1994～ 1998年感染率分别为 8 0 5 %、7 98%、6 16%、4 97%、4 5 1% ,呈持续下降。部位例次感染率以上呼吸道最高 ( 2 67% ) ,手术伤口 ( 1 15 % )次之 ,下呼吸道感染率( 1 0 8% )居第三位 ,但不同年份的不同部位感染率的位次略有变化 ,外科、儿科、内科感染率分别为 9 0 3%、8 0 6%和 6 70 % ,居前三位。但不同年份不同科室所居位次变化较大。结论 :医院感染率的持续下降 ,原因是多方面的 ,但监测工作对感染率的降低所起的作用 ,是不容忽视的。在医院感染控制时应以上一年的监测结果为依据 ,把感染率最高的科室作为重点 ,查找其感染率高的原因 ,并采取相应控制措施 ,降低其医院感染率。这样交替进行 ,最终将能达到降低全院感染率之目的