“一站式”社区系统家庭治疗模式对精神分裂症康复效果分析

目的探讨"一站式"社区系统家庭治疗模式对精神分裂症患者家庭环境和自测健康状况的影响。方法将病情处于缓解期的精神分裂症患者120例分为研究组和对照组各60例,两组病例均维持抗精神病药物治疗和一般性健康教育,研究组在"社区工疗站"定期接受系统家庭治疗,对照组不参与"社区工疗站"活动。采用阳性和阴性症状量表(PANSS)、自测健康评定量表(SRHMS)、家庭环境量表中文版(FES-CV)在治疗前及治疗两年后对两组患者进行评定。结果治疗后研究组和对照组PANSS评分、SRHMS总评分差异均有统计学意义[(50.01±13.93)分vs.(78.59±14.88)分,(339.97±41.86)分vs.(290.46±41.84)分,P均0.01]。结论 "一站式"社区系统家庭治疗可能有助于稳定精神分裂症患者的病情,减少复发,提高患者的健康自测水平。     

混合神经网络模型用于煤焦气化过程的模拟

以煤焦气化反应模型为基础,结合BP神经网络参数估计器,建立了用于模拟煤焦气化过程的混合神经网络模型。结果表明该混合神经网络模型能很好地描述煤焦的气化过程,可以得到在实验过程中无法测得的2个参数,即：在煤焦中具有活性的碳与总碳的比值A和具有活性碳的单位质量反应速率Rr。     

一种基于多授权系统模型的高效CP-ABE方法

密文策略的属性基加密(Ciphertext-Policy Attribute-Based Encryption, CP-ABE)是一种可靠的方法,它既能实现数据机密性,又能实现细粒度的访问控制。但CP-ABE只支持单授权系统模型,不适合云存储的多授权。通过引入角色和规则的概念,提出了一种多授权系统模型的改进方法,并改进标准CP-ABE方法以形成MACP-ABE方案。该方案能支持改进的多授权系统,实现细粒度的访问控制。此外,MACP-ABE方法可支持用户的属性撤销,从而实现动态属性管理。实验结果表明该方法可以有效地减少整体计算开销。     

2011-2018年中国手足口病发病的时空特征及影响因素研究

目的 分析我国手足口病的时空特征,探讨社会、经济、人口和卫生服务等因素对我国手足口病发病的影响,为手足口病疫情防控提供参考依据。方法 采用贝叶斯时空模型对手足口病数据进行拟合,评估手足口病的时空变化,并识别手足口病发病风险与社会、经济、人口和卫生服务等因素的潜在关联。结果 2011-2018年,我国共报告手足口病例17 118 050例,死亡2 283例,2011-2014年报告发病率呈波动上升趋势,2014-2018年报告发病率呈波动下降趋势,报告死亡率一直呈波动下降趋势。手足口病的发病具有空间聚集性,报告发病率最高的地区为华南地区且为热点区域及高风险区域,报告发病率最低的为西北地区,冷点区域及低风险区域也集中在其部分区域。手足口病发病风险与人均地区生产总值（RR=3.54）、每万人规模以上工业企业单位数（RR=1.61）、城市化率（RR=3.00）、人口出生率（RR=2.36）、每万人医疗机构床位数（RR=3.40）和人均公园绿地面积（RR=0.57）有关。结论 2011-2018年我国手足口病防控重点区域为东南沿海地区,在加快城市化进程的同时需考虑增加人均公园绿地面积,以降低手足口病的发病率。     

丹红注射液对大鼠深静脉血栓形成模型的作用研究

目的 考察丹红注射液对大鼠深静脉血栓形成模型的作用。方法 以大鼠深静脉血栓形成模型为研究对象,通过检测出血时间、纤维蛋白原含量（FIB）、凝血酶时间（TT）、活化部分凝血活酶时间（APTT）、凝血酶原时间（PT）和血栓重量等指标,全面考察丹红注射液对大鼠深静脉血栓形成模型的改善作用。结果 丹红注射液2、1 mL·kg^-1剂量下可明显延长模型大鼠的出血时间、TT、APTT和PT,显著降低纤维蛋白原含量和静脉血栓的重量。结论 丹红注射液对大鼠深静脉血栓形成有明显的改善作用。     

Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models

ObjectiveWe propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population.Study Design and SettingUsing simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease.ResultsWe estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval.ConclusionWe conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance.     

Predictors of condom use behaviour among male street labourers in urban Vietnam using a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model

HIV risk in vulnerable groups such as itinerant male street labourers is often examined via a focus on individual determinants. This study provides a test of a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model to predict condom use behaviour among male street workers in urban Vietnam. In a cross-sectional survey using a social mapping technique, 450 male street labourers from 13 districts of Hanoi, Vietnam were recruited and interviewed. Collected data were first examined for completeness; structural equation modelling was then employed to test the model fit. Condoms were used inconsistently by many of these men, and usage varied in relation to a number of factors. A modified IMB model had a better fit than the original IMB model in predicting condom use behaviour. This modified model accounted for 49% of the variance, versus 10% by the original version. In the modified model, the influence of psychosocial factors was moderately high, whilst the influence of HIV prevention information, motivation and perceived behavioural skills was moderately low, explaining in part the limited level of condom use behaviour. This study provides insights into social factors that should be taken into account in public health planning to promote safer sexual behaviour among Asian male street labourers.     

Acute toxicity when concentration varies with time: A case study with carbon monoxide inhalation by rats

Exposure to time-varying concentrations of toxic compounds is the norm in both occupational settings and daily human life, but little has been done to investigate the impact of variations in concentration on toxic outcomes; this case study with carbon monoxide helps fill that gap. Median acute lethality of 10-, 20-, 40-, and 60-min continuous exposures of rats to carbon monoxide was well described by the toxic load model (k = Cⁿ × t; k is constant, C = test concentration, n = toxic load exponent, and t = exposure duration) with n = 1.74. Dose response-relationships for 1-h exposures including a recovery period between 10- or 20-min pulses showed greater similarity (in both median lethality and steepness of dose-response curve) to continuous exposures with equivalent pulse duration and concentration, rather than a 60-min exposure with equivalent time-weighted average concentrations or toxic load. When pulses were of unequal concentration (3:1 ratio), only the high concentration pulse contributed to lethality. These findings show that fluctuations or interruptions in exposure over a short time scale (60 min or less) can have a substantial impact on outcomes (when n > 1), and thus high-resolution monitoring data are needed to aid interpretation of resulting outcomes.     

A Transitional Model for the Evaluation of West Nile Virus Transmission in Italy

In August 2008, after 10 years of apparent silence, West Nile virus (WNV) infection re‐emerged in northern Italy, spreading through the territories of three regions. In the following years, new cases occurred in the same area and additional foci of infection were observed in central and southern Italy, involving also Sicily and Sardinia islands. The Italian Ministry of Health ordered to test by RT‐PCR all blood and organ donors from 15th June to 15th November of each year in the infected areas. The period at risk of WNV transmission was defined on the basis of literature data, but a more scientific estimation of the transmission season, under Italian circumstances, needs to be performed. A transitional model previously developed by other Authors was applied and adapted to Italian circumstances, to describe and quantify the WNV transmission cycle between birds and mosquitoes. Culex spp. was considered the main vector, and mosquito parameters were adapted to this genus. Magpies (Pica pica) were considered the main bird host. The model was partially validated through the results of the entomological surveys carried out in central Italy and in Po Valley. The results of the transitional model permitted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀) during 2010 for the whole Italian territory at 1 km of spatial resolution, estimating the risk of WNV transmission during the year and creating detailed risk maps for Italy. The mean values of R₀ for the whole Italy varied between 0.4 and 4.8, with values >1 from the end of May to the middle of September. The coastal and flat zones of Italy showed the highest R₀ values. Although partially validated, the model showed a substantial acceptable capacity of defining the period at major risk of WNV transmission in Italy, helping Public health authorities in the application of appropriate and timely control and preventive measures.     

The Possibility of Using the ICR Mouse as an Animal Model to Assess Antimonkeypox Drug Efficacy

As a result of the conducted experimental studies on intranasal challenge of ICR mice, rabbits and miniature pigs (even in the maximum variant) with the doses of 4.0–5.5 lg PFU of monkeypox virus (MPXV), some clinical signs such as purulent conjunctivitis, blepharitis and ruffled fur were found only in mice. The 50% infective dose (_CID₅₀) of MPXV for these animals estimated by the presence of external clinical signs was 4.8 lg PFU, and _LID₅₀ estimated by the virus presence in the lungs of mice 7 days post‐infection taking into account its 10% application in the animal respiratory tract was 1.4 lg PFU. When studying the dynamics of MPXV propagation in mice challenged intranasally with 25 _LID₅₀ of MPXV, the maximum pathogen accumulation was revealed in nasal cavity, lungs and brain: 5.7 ± 0.1, 5.5 ± 0.1 and 5.3 ± 0.3 lg PFU/ml, respectively. The pathomorphological examination of these animals revealed the presence and replication of the pathogen in the traditional primary target cells for MPXV (mononuclear phagocyte system cells and respiratory tract epitheliocytes) as well as in some other types of cells (endothelial cells, reticular cells, connective tissue cells). Our use of these animals to assess the antiviral efficacy of some drugs demonstrated the agreement of the results (a significant positive effect of NIOCH‐14 and ST‐246) with those described in scientific literature, which opens up the prospects of using ICR mice as animal models for monkeypox to develop preventive antismallpox drugs.