Routine mortality monitoring for detecting mass murder in UK general practice: test of effectiveness using modelling.

BACKGROUND: The Shipman Inquiry recommended mortality rate monitoring if it could be 'shown to be workable' in detecting a future mass murderer in general practice. AIM: To examine the effectiveness of cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts, cross-sectional Shewhart charts, and exponentially-weighted, moving-average control charts in mortality monitoring at practice level. DESIGN OF STUDY: Analysis of Scottish routine general practice data combined with estimation of control chart effectiveness in detecting a 'murderer' in a simulated dataset. METHOD: Practice stability was calculated from routine data to determine feasible lengths of monitoring. A simulated dataset of 405,000 'patients' was created, registered with 75 'practices' whose underlying mortality rates varied with the same distribution as case-mix-adjusted mortality in all Scottish practices. The sensitivity of each chart to detect five and 10 excess deaths was examined in repeated simulations. The sensitivity of control charts to excess deaths in simulated data, and the number of alarm signals when control charts were applied to routine data were estimated. RESULTS: Practice instability limited the length of monitoring and modelling was consequently restricted to a 3-year period. Monitoring mortality over 3 years, CUSUM charts were most sensitive but only reliably achieved >50% successful detection for 10 excess deaths per year and generated multiple false alarms (>15%). CONCLUSION: At best, mortality monitoring can act as a backstop to detect a particularly prolific serial killer when other means of detection have failed. Policy should focus on changes likely to improve detection of individual murders, such as reform of death certification and the coroner system.     

人血清免疫球蛋白工作标准的制备与标定

本文报导混合浓缩人血清工作标准(89-1)的制备和用WHO相应参考标准血清标定出其中五类免疫球蛋白(Igs)及IgG4亚类含量。该制剂主要用于体外测定IgG、IgA、IgM的工作标准,也可供作体外测定IgD、IgE、IgG4的工作标准。混合前每份血清均无乙型肝炎表面抗原、转氨酶正常。定量分装为每安瓿0.5ml,经冷冻干燥后,4℃保存。参照国际参考标准血清67/97及67/37,分别以免疫单扩散法标定89-1中IgG、IgA、ISM含量;以酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)标定IgD、IgG4和IgE含量。其中IgG、IgG4、IgA、IgM含量,应用本室制备的相应单克隆抗体(McAb)标定,而IgD和IgE应用多克隆抗体(PcAb)进行标定。并用五剂量法及四剂量法分别计算Igs含量。     

Changes in agent variability and time course of disease incidence during a year (as exemplified by dysentery)

The vulnerability of epidemic process during the period of minimum annual incidence of the disease is validated. Biological properties of Shigella sonnei are studied and their variability examined using the index for evaluation of the mean number of variations for a sign. Minimum agent heterogeneity coincides with minimum incidence of disease and maximum heterogeneity with its seasonal rises.     

颈静脉孔区的显微解剖及定位标志研究

目的:研究颈静脉孔区的显微外科解剖,探讨寰椎横突(TPA)、头侧直肌、二腹肌沟、颈静脉突等解剖标志在颈静脉孔区病变手术中的定位意义。方法:成人头颈标本15例,男13例,女2例,红色乳胶灌注颈总动脉和椎动脉。手术显微镜下(×3～×30)逐层显露颈静脉孔区结构,明确该区显微解剖特征、相关的解剖标志及其定位意义。结果:颈静脉孔区多数重要的解剖结构均可以TPA为参照标志予以明确。二腹肌后腹位于其浅层。TPA的后方为枕下三角,三角内有椎动脉、椎静脉丛和颈1神经通过。头侧直肌起始于TPA的外表面,止于枕骨颈静脉突的下表面,可作为确定颅外颈静脉孔的解剖标志。茎突位于TPA的前方,颈内静脉、迷走神经、副神经、舌下神经穿行于茎突与TPA之间,颈内动脉位于颈内静脉的前内侧。二腹肌、颈静脉突、颈动脉嵴对定位面神经、颈静脉孔及舌咽神经等结构具有重要意义。结论:颈静脉孔区解剖结构复杂,利用寰椎横突、头侧直肌、二腹肌沟、颈静脉突等解剖标志有助于明确此区域重要的解剖结构,避免术中不必要的损伤。     

中国激光杂志社期刊封面设计的实践与思考

【目的】 总结科技期刊封面设计流程管理模式并探讨其中的相关问题,为同行提供经验借鉴。【方法】 从版面、设计风格等方面对科技期刊封面图片的特征进行归纳。以中国激光杂志社期刊封面为例,总结封面设计流程管理模式,探讨封面设计过程中的相关问题。【结果】 期刊应对封面的主题策划、生产流程、版权保护等方面进行有效的流程管理。此外,就封面设置及风格、元素文化、版权意识、与设计公司合作等问题进行思考总结。【结论】 科技期刊可通过合理的封面设计流程,将科技与艺术融合,更准确地传播前沿科技成果,并弘扬中国传统文化。     

医院重大建设工程项目全过程跟踪审计成果转化探析

以湛江中心人民医院迁建工程项目为例,剖析项目全过程跟踪审计的各层级关系和作用。医院重大建设工程项目审计成果的生成和转化,要以国家审计为主导、社会审计为补充、内部审计为保障,齐抓共管,闭环整改,达到全过程跟踪审计的预期效果。     

Bayesian semiparametric joint modeling of longitudinal explanatory variables of mixed types and a binary outcome

Many prospective biomedical studies collect longitudinal clinical and lifestyle data that are both continuous and discrete. In some studies, there is interest in the association between a binary outcome and the values of these longitudinal measurements at a specific time point. A common problem in these studies is inconsistency in timing of measurements and missing follow-ups which can lead to few measurements at the time of interest. Some methods have been developed to address this problem, but are only applicable to continuous measurements. To address this limitation, we propose a new class of joint models for a binary outcome and longitudinal explanatory variables of mixed types. The longitudinal model uses a latent normal random variable construction with regression splines to model time-dependent trends in mean with a Dirichlet Process prior assigned to random effects to relax distribution assumptions. We also standardize timing of the explanatory variables by relating the binary outcome to imputed longitudinal values at a set time point. The proposed model is evaluated through simulation studies and applied to data from a cancer survivor study of participants in the Women's Health Initiative.     

补肾益智方治疗阿尔兹海默病的研究进展

阿尔茨海默病（AD）是最常见的痴呆形式,目前缺少疾病修饰性的治疗药物。中医理论认为肾精亏虚是AD发生发展的内在机制,补肾益精是中医治疗AD的基本原则,贯穿AD治疗的始终。补肾益智方是治疗AD的临床经验方。补肾益智方治疗AD已有大量文献报道,但补肾益智方缺乏临床应用安全性评价,同时其基础研究薄弱,有效成分不明、多靶点作用机制不清。为阐明补肾益智方多成分、多靶点、多途径治疗AD的作用机制,该文综述了补肾益智方治疗AD的研究进展。进一步收集了16个基于高效液相色谱指纹图谱的补肾益智方主要化学成分,并对其成药性与安全性进行评价。利用基于AD重要病理生理学过程的网络药理学与文献综述相结合的方法,深入分析了补肾益智方靶向胆碱能系统、AD神经病理学特征的有效成分及可能机制。该研究为AD对症治疗、疾病修饰性治疗的药物研发提供了一系列有潜力的先导化合物,并为深入拓展补肾益智方的临床应用提供了理论依据。     

肺结核专科护理质量评价指标体系的构建

目的：构建肺结核专科护理质量评价指标体系,为肺结核临床护理质量管理提供参考依据。方法：以Donabedian的“结构–过程–结果 ”三维质量评价模型为理论基础,通过文献检索、德尔菲专家函询法、层次分析法确立肺结核专科护理质量评价指标体系。结果：共有45名专家完成两轮函询,问卷有效回收率均为100%;专家权威系数（Cr）分别为0.822和0.859;两轮函询肯德尔协调系数（Kendall’s W）分别为0.140～0.379和0.107～0.665,P均<0.01。根据条目筛选标准、专家意见及院内外专家小组会议讨论结果,确立终版评价指标体系含一级指标3项,二级指标18项,三级指标73项。结论：肺结核专科护理质量评价指标体系结构合理,构建过程科学、可靠,可为肺结核专科护理质量管理及专业学科发展提供理论参考。     

Teacher Evaluation of an Experiential Vegetable Education Program for Australian Primary Schools: Does Face-to-Face Training Add Value above Digital Training?

The teacher-led implementation of healthy eating programs in schools is cost-effective and potentially impactful. Teacher acceptability is important for uptake; however, process evaluations are scarce. This study evaluated the effect of two intensities of teacher training on the evaluation of a vegetable education program for Australian primary schools by teachers. The teachers (n = 65) who implemented the program as part of a cluster RCT (25 schools in two states, New South Wales and South Australia) received either low- (provision with materials and online training) or high (additional face-to-face (F2F) training)-intensity training prior to implementing a 5-week vegetable education program. They evaluated the acceptability of a digital training module and program by indicating the level of agreement with 15 and 18 statements, respectively, using 5-point Likert scales. The average item scores ranged from 3.0 to 4.2. All but one item, including student engagement, alignment to the curriculum and intent for reuse of the program, had a rounded average or median score of 4. The level of training intensity did not impact the teacher acceptability ratings. In conclusion, the teacher acceptability was good, and additional F2F training does not add value above the solely digital training of the teachers.