Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Clinical parameters that predict histology of postchemotherapy retroperitoneal lymph node mass in testicular cancer

BACKGROUND: Since the advent of cisplatin-based chemotherapy, the majority of metastatic testicular cancers can be cured by chemotherapy followed by retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND). However, postchemotherapy RPLND confers no therapeutic benefit if the residual mass contains no viable cells. Therefore, to determine which parameters predict a patient's likelihood of having only necrosis in the residual mass, we retrospectively analyzed clinical parameters of patients who underwent postchemotherapy RPLND. METHODS: Data from 27 patients with metastatic testicular cancer were analyzed. The histology of the primary tumor was seminoma in 11 cases and non-seminoma in 16 cases. All of the patients with non-seminoma showed a normalization of tumor markers after chemotherapy. Analysis of clinical parameters included data for the initial histology, pretreatment tumor marker levels, postchemotherapy retroperitoneal mass size, and the histology of the dissected RPLNs. RESULTS: Histological examination of dissected RPLNs showed residual tumor in 27% of seminoma patients and 38% of non-seminoma patients. In seminoma patients, no viable cells were found in all six patients with pretreatment lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels below 7.5 times the upper limit of normal, or in all five of the patients with postchemotherapy RPLNs less than 2.5 cm. In non-seminoma patients, no viable cells were found in nine of 10 patients with pretreatment alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels less than 2700 ng/mL, or in eight of nine patients with residual mass less than 2.5 cm. CONCLUSIONS: Both postchemotherapy RPLN mass size and pretreatment tumor marker levels are possible predictors for necrosis of the residual mass in testicular cancer patients.     

Reduction of Nitric Oxide with L–/Vc–Monomethyl Arginine in lnterleukin–2 and Anti–CD3 Monoclonal Antibody Combination Therapy

We evaluated nitric oxide induction in antitumor therapy consisting of anti–CD3 monoclonal antibody (anti–CD3) and interleukin–2 (IL–2), then determined the effect of nitric oxide reduction with L–N^G–monomethyl arginine (LNMA) on the therapeutic methods. Female C57BL/6 mice, MCA102 (a non immunogenic, NK–resistant murine fibrosarcoma cell line), and 145–2C11 (hamster anti–murine–CD3 mAb) were utilized in an experimental hepatic metastasis model developed by injecting a tumor cell suspension into the spleen of mice. A marked increase in serum NO₂^–+ NO₁ was observed at 19 hours after anti–CD3 (10 μ, IV) and additional IL–2 administrations (40times10¹ U, twice, If) induced a further increase. The NO₂, + NO_3- elevation in spot urine in the combination therapy was not suppressed with LNMA at a dose of 100 μg/h but was significantly lowered at 300 μg/h. The efficacy of the anti–CD3 + IL–2 therapy was not diminished by LNMA administration either at 100 μg/h or at 300 μg/h.     

High-dose intravenous immunoglobulin therapy improved muscle strength in a patient with multifocal motor neuropathy and antibodies against the glycolipid LK1

We report improvement in muscle strength in a patient with multifocal motor neuropathy (MMN) when given high-dose intravenous immunoglobin (i.v.-Ig) treatment. The patient had asymmetrical limb weakness, atrophy and absent or weak reflexes, but no sensory disturbances. Neurography showed multiple conduction blocks in peripheral motor nerves but no sensory nerve abnormalities. Serum and anti-GM1 antibodies were not found, however, the patient had serum antibodies against the glycolipid LK1, an epitope found both in glycolipid and also in some glycoproteins in peripheral nerve myelin. Muscle strength improved 5 days after i.v.-Ig therapy, and lasted about 10 weeks. Repeated courses of treatment resulted in similar improvement. This is, to our knowledge, the first patient reported with MMN found to have antibodies against the glycolipid LK1.     

The Problem of Intractability: The Continuing Need for New Medical Therapies in Epilepsy

Summary: Treatment of epilepsy, one of the most common neurologic disorders, has evolved from "institutional" poly-therapy to "dogmatic" monotherapy, and, most recently, to "rational" polypharmacy. The introduction of bromides for the treatment of epilepsy was followed first by phenobarbital and then by phenytoin as therapeutic options. Although attempts to combine medications were legion, none was supported by studies that demonstrated the benefit of such combinations. The issue of adverse effects became a principal argument in favor of monotherapy. Monotherapy, using newly developed drugs, avoided problems due to drug interactions but was ineffective in 20–30% of patients. A greater understanding of basic disease mechanisms and developments in molecular biology have led to an increased number of effective drugs for the estimated 6–12% of patients with epilepsy whose condition is intractable. Clinical research continues to build on the work of basic scientists in attempting to develop treatments based on a desire to move beyond the palliative and to affect the causative mechanisms of the disease. Novel medical approaches now under exploration include the use of drugs with complementary mechanisms of action, stimulation of various components of the nervous system, biochemical manipulations, focal intracerebral drug perfusion, and gene therapy.     

Benefits and risks of antifibrinolytic therapy in the management of ruptured intracranial aneurysms

Summary One hundred patients with a verified subarachnoid haemorrhage were studied in a double blind, placebo-controlled trial at a single centre to determine the value and relative risks of tranexamic acid (TXA) in the management of ruptured intracranial aneurysms. The incidence of recurrent haemorrhage between active and placebo groups was identical (12%) and the mortality from recurrent haemorrhage was 7% and 5%, respectively. The overall incidence of cerebral infarction before surgery, at discharge and at 6 months follow-up was greater in the TXA group (27%) than in the control group (11%). Post-operative cerebral ischaemia was significantly more frequent in the active, 18 of 29 as compared to 6 of 32 patients, in the placebo group. In a fifth of the patients in whom cerebral blood flow was estimated there was a significant reduction of cerebral blood flow (CBF) on the side of the ruptured aneurysm in the TXA treated group. It is suggested that this may be the cause of the increased incidence of cerebral ischaemia in this group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of cerebral vasospasm, hydrocephalus, visual disturbances and gastrointestinal disturbances.More fatalities were encountered from ischaemia and recurrent haemorrhage in the TXA group but these differences did not reach statistical significance at the 5% level. Given that disability was due to either vasospasm or recurrent haemorrhage then a patient under TXA treatment was significantly more likely to have disability due to vasospasm (p<0.04); the reverse was true for the placebo patient (p<0.05).     

Grip and pinch strength among selected adult occupational groups

A survey of 402 normal subjects (203 men, 199 women) was conducted to assist in distinguishing potential differences in norms of hand strength. Norm data had previously been collected from mixed occupational groups, but in the present study it was hypothesised that people involved in heavy manual work on a daily basis might possess greater hand strength than others. The volunteers were adults working in industry and agriculture; they were subdivided into occupational categories. Measurements of grip, key and palmar pinch using the Jamar dynamometer and B and L pinch gauge were collected, using the protocol described by Mathiowetz. Volunteers also rated their individual hand strength job requirements subjectively. Mean values were established with regard to age, sex, dominance, occupational group and subjective rating. Significant differences were found with regard to age and sex but not to dominance; there was no evidence of differences between occupational groups or between subjective rating and individual scoring, i.e. volunteers who perceived their job as requiring a high degree of strength did not achieve higher test measurements than others. A high interrater reliability was demonstrated when comparing these follow-up measurements with the original data. It was concluded that, for clinical and rehabilitative purposes, therapists can interpret assessment of outcome most accurately by comparing patients' results with the existing norm data.     

Practical guidelines for physicians in the management of febrile seizures

Recent studies have shown that adequate medication can prevent the recurrence of febrile seizures (FS). It has also been clarified that the vast majority of, though not all, FS patients follow a benign course. Then, questions arise as to whether or not FS should be prevented, particularly in light of the risks of side effects from drugs. Which kinds of FS can be prevented, if necessary? The guidelines presented here are aimed primarily at helping general practitioners in considering how to manage FS most appropriately. The guidelines stress that judgements should be individualized, while referring to a few specific ‘warning factors’. The guidelines follow a ‘laissez-faire’ principle for the majority of FS cases, whereas intermittent therapy with diazepam and continuous medication with either phenobarbital or valproate are indicated in other limited cases meeting respective definite criteria.