补肾生血方联合西药治疗再生障碍性贫血早期疗效预测指标

目的：探讨补肾生血方联合西药治疗再生障碍性贫血（AA）早期疗效的预测指标,为中医补肾治法联合西药治疗AA提供预后参考指标。方法：本研究为回顾性研究,选取2018年9月至2021年3月于中国中医科学院西苑医院等19家医院就诊并采用补肾生血方联合西药治疗6个月有效的126例患者,评价其治疗4个月时的疗效,根据治疗4个月时的疗效评价结果将其分为4个月有效组和4个月无效组,分析比较两组患者治疗前在年龄、性别、疾病分型[包括重型AA(SAA)、非重型AA(NSAA)]、病程、骨髓有核细胞增生程度及基线血象水平[包括白细胞（WBC）、中性粒细胞（ANC）、血红蛋白（HGB）、血小板（PLT）、网织红细胞（RET）]、T淋巴细胞及亚群、T-box转录因子（T-bet）、GATA家族转录因子-3(GATA-3)表达水平指标上的差异。结果：4个月有效组在20岁≤年龄<40岁及60岁≤年龄<80岁患者占比较高（P<0.05）;两组患者在性别、疾病分型（SAA/NSAA）、病程、有无合并症等方面均差异无统计学意义。4个月有效患者治疗前HGB、WBC、ANC、PLT基线水平明显高于治疗4个月...     

饮食模式防治代谢性心血管病——基于中医药理论的解读与思考

代谢性心血管病（CMD）是一组代谢异常和心血管损害存在因果关系的临床综合征。尽管采取了强有力的药物干预和临床治疗方法,其发病率和死亡率仍居高不下。迫切需要有效的、以证据为基础的综合管理措施,以提高患者的寿命和生活质量。从《黄帝内经》中提出“食养尽之”的食养概念到饮食限制、植物性饮食、江南饮食等现代饮食模式的广泛应用,饮食调养在未病先防、已病早治、瘥后调摄中均发挥着重要作用。该文系统梳理了饮食模式的中医理论渊源,阐述了饮食限制等现代饮食模式防治CMD的前沿证据与机制,探索将传统中医药理论与饮食模式相结合的防治策略,以期建立食养医三位一体的中西医结合饮食新模式,为CMD的临床管理提供新思路和新方向。     

Hybrid Approach to Estimation of Underreporting of Tuberculosis Case Notification in High-Burden Settings With Weak Surveillance Infrastructure: Design and Implementation of an Inventory Study

BackgroundThe greatest risk of infectious disease undernotification occurs in settings with limited capacity to detect it reliably. World Health Organization guidance on the measurement of misreporting is paradoxical, requiring robust, independent systems to assess surveillance rigor. Methods are needed to estimate undernotification in settings with incomplete, flawed, or weak surveillance systems. This study attempted to design a tuberculosis (TB) inventory study that balanced rigor with feasibility for high-need settings.ObjectiveThis study aims to design a hybrid TB inventory study for contexts without World Health Organization preconditions. We estimated the proportion of TB cases that were not reported to the Ministry of Health in 2015. The study sought to describe TB surveillance coverage and quality at different levels of TB care provision. Finally, we aimed to identify structural-, facility-, and provider-level barriers to notification and reasons for underreporting, nonreporting, and overreporting.MethodsRetrospective partial digitalization of paper-based surveillance and facility records preceded deterministic and probabilistic record linkage; a hybrid of health facilities and laboratory census with a stratified sampling of HFs with no capacity to notify leveraged a priori knowledge. Distinct extrapolation methods were applied to the sampled health facilities to estimate bacteriologically confirmed versus clinical TB. In-depth interviews and focus groups were used to identify causal factors responsible for undernotification and test the acceptability of remedies.ResultsThe hybrid approach proved viable and instructive. High-specificity verification of paper-based records in the field was efficient and had minimal errors. Limiting extrapolation to clinical cases improved precision. Probabilistic record linkage is computationally intensive, and the choice of software influences estimates. Record absence, decay, and overestimation of the private sector TB treatment behavior threaten validity, meriting mitigation. Data management demands were underestimated. Treatment success was modest in all sectors (R=37.9%–72.0%) and did not align with treatment success reported by the state (6665/8770, 75.99%). One-fifth of TB providers (36/178, 20%) were doubtful that the low volume of patients with TB treated in their facility merited mastery of the extensive TB notification forms and procedures.ConclusionsSubnational inventory studies can be rigorous, relevant, and efficient in countries that need them even in the absence of World Health Organization preconditions, if precautions are taken. The use of triangulation techniques, with minimal recourse to sampling and extrapolation, and the privileging of practical information needs of local decision makers yield reasonable misreporting estimates and viable policy recommendations.     

Proposals for person‐centred care in the COVID‐19 era. Delphi study

BackgroundIn this COVID‐19 era, we need to rethink the criteria used to measure the results of person‐centred care strategies.ObjectiveTo identify priorities, and criteria that health services can use to pursue actually the goal of achieving person‐centred care.DesignThree‐phase online qualitative study performed during May–July of 2020 using the Delphi technique.Setting and ParticipantsAn online platform was used for a consensus meeting of 114 participants, including health planning experts, health‐care institution managers, clinicians and patients.Main Outcome MeasuresCriteria and indicators for the achievement of person‐centred care.Main ResultsThe first round began with 125 proposals and 11 dimensions. After the second round, 28 ideas reached a high level of consensus among the participants. Ultimately, the workgroup agreed on 20 criteria for goals in the implementation of person‐centred care during the COVID‐19 era and 21 related indicators to measure goal achievement.DiscussionNine dimensions and 28 priorities were identified. These priorities are also in accordance with the quadruple aim approach, which emphasizes the need for care for health‐care professionals, without whom it is impossible to achieve a better quality of care.ConclusionsPerson‐centred care continues to be a key objective. However, new metrics are needed to ensure its continued development during the restoration of public health services beyond the control of COVID‐19.Patient or Public ContributionTwelve professionals and patient representatives participated voluntarily in the construction of the baseline questionnaire and in the selection of the criteria and indicators using an online platform for consensus meetings.     

基于季节性ARIMA模型的新疆肺结核发病预测分析

目的 探讨季节性时间序列模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)在新疆肺结核发病预测中的应用,并验证模型的可行性和适用性。 方法 采用季节性ARIMA(p, d, q )(P, D, Q)_s拟合2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核月发病人数,建立多个季节时间序列模型并进行比较,选出最优模型对2019年9—12月肺结核发病人数进行预测。 结果 2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核累积发病人数为627 869例,年平均发病人数为3 567例。 新疆地区肺结核月发病数具有季节性,1—5月平均发病数高于平均水平,6—12月平均发病数低于平均水平,发病高峰为1月和3月,发病低谷为9月。通过赤池信息量(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)和贝叶斯信息量(Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC)最小原则得出,ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂是最优模型,其残差序列为白噪声,参数的回归系数均具有统计学意义,拟合的平均绝对百分比误差MAPE为8.723%。预测的MAPE为18.674%,真实值均处于预测值的95%置信区间内。 结论 ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂模型能够较好地拟合新疆肺结核发病数据,并进行短期预测,对新疆卫生防控措施的制定具有一定指导意义。     

城镇污水综合排放消毒效果实验研究

用实验的方法观察城镇污水综合排放消毒前后效果。消毒前,菌落总数为48000(cuf/ml),总大肠菌和粪大肠菌群>16000(个/L)。消毒后,菌落总数灭活率90分钟达85.93％,总大肠菌群和粪大肠菌群30分钟灭活率达98％,经统计学处理,有极显著差异。结论 加入有效氯30mg/L,消毒30分钟能达到较好效果,提示城镇污水应有效地消毒后排放。     

基于一体化手术平台的LC联合术中ERCP治疗胆囊结石合并胆总管结石的效果研究

目的 探讨一体化手术平台中行腹腔镜胆囊切除术（LC）联合术中内镜逆行性胆胰管造影（ERCP）治疗胆囊结石合并胆总管结石的效果,并与序贯二步法ERCP+LC进行比较。方法 回顾性分析2019年12月至2020年12月由台州医院和恩泽医院肝胆胰外科完成治疗的82例胆囊结石合并胆总管结石患者临床资料,其中在一体化手术平台完成LC联合术中ERCP治疗的37例患者分为A组,完成序贯二步法ERCP+LC治疗的45例患者分为B组,比较两组手术时间、术中出血量、结石清除率、疼痛评分、排气时间、下床活动时间、术后并发症发生率、住院时间、住院费用等指标的差异。结果 两组术前基本资料比较无统计学差异,具有可比性（P>0.05）。两组在手术时间、术中出血量、结石清除率、术后疼痛评分、住院费用等方面无明显统计学差异（P>0.05）。A组术后排气时间[（16.0±4.5）h vs （19.9±6.0）h]、下床活动时间[（8.4±2.0）h vs （13.4±3.8）h]以及住院时间[（4.7±0.7）d vs （7.4±1.0）d]均明显短于B组（P<0.05）。两组患者在术后疼痛评分、住院费用方面无明显差异（P>0.05）。A组患者手术并发症总发生率[2.7%（1/37） vs 20.0%（9/45）]明显少于B组,差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论 在一体化手术平台行LC联合术中ERCP治疗胆囊结石合并胆总管结石较序贯二步法ERCP+LC效果更好,能缩短住院时间,减少手术并发症,且不增加住院费用,是一种较好的治疗手段。     

Differences in patient perceptions of integrated care among black,hispanic, and white Medicare beneficiaries

ObjectiveThis study sought to identify potential disparities among racial/ethnic groups in patient perceptions of integrated care (PPIC) and to explore how methodological differences may influence measured disparities.Data SourceData from Medicare beneficiaries who completed the 2015 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) and were enrolled in Part A benefits for an entire year.Study DesignWe used 4‐point measures of eight dimensions of PPIC and assessed differences in dimensions among racial/ethnic groups. To estimate differences, we applied a “rank and replace” method using multiple regression models in three steps, balancing differences in health status among racial groups and adjusting for differences in socioeconomic status. We reran all analyses with additional SES controls and using standard multiple variable regression.Data Collection/Extraction MethodsNot applicable.Principal FindingsWe found several significant differences in perceived integrated care between Black versus White (three of eight measures) and Hispanic versus White (one of eight) Medicare beneficiaries. On average, Black beneficiaries perceived more integrated support for self‐care than did White beneficiaries (mean difference = 0.14, SE = 0.06, P =.02). Black beneficiaries perceived more integrated specialists’ knowledge of past medical history than did White beneficiaries (mean difference = 0.12, SE = 0.06, P =.01). Black and Hispanic beneficiaries also each reported, on average, 0.18 more integrated medication and home health management than did White beneficiaries (P <.01 and P <.01). These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses and model specifications.ConclusionsThere exist some aspects of care for which Black and Hispanic beneficiaries may perceive greater integrated care than non‐Hispanic White beneficiaries. Further studies should test theories explaining why racial/ethnic groups perceive differences in integrated care.     

时间序列模型应用于新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情预测效果比较研究

目的比较常见时间序列模型应用于新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情预测的效果。方法收集2020年4月1日至9月30日美国、印度和巴西3个国家COVID-19每日确诊病例数,分别建立差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型和循环神经网络(RNN)模型,使用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)等指标,比较不同模型预测9月21-30日确诊病例的表现。结果应用ARIMA模型预测美国、印度和巴西疫情的MAPE分别为13.18%、9.18%和17.30%,RMSE分别为6542.32、8069.50和3954.59;应用RNN模型预测美国、印度和巴西疫情的MAPE分别为15.27%、7.23%和26.02%,RMSE分别为6877.71、6457.07和5950.88。结论ARIMA和RNN模型的COVID-19预测效果存在地区差异,ARIMA模型的预测效果在美国和巴西较优,而RNN模型的预测效果在印度较优。     

Timebanking and the co-production of preventive social care with adults; what can we learn from the challenges of implementing person-to-person timebanks in England?

This paper explores the potential contribution of timebanking, an innovative volunteering scheme, to the co-production of preventive social care with adults in England. Interest in volunteering in social care has increased as one proposed solution to the international crisis of a rising demand for services in juxtaposition with decreased resources. Volunteering has been particularly promoted in preventive services that prevent or delay care needs arising. Despite sustained interest in volunteering and co-production in social care, little is known about how theory translates into practice. Reporting implementation data from a Realistic Evaluation of six case studies in England, this paper explores one volunteering scheme, timebanking. The research explores how timebanks were working, what contribution they can make to adult social care, and whether they are an example of co-production. Data collected included interviews, focus groups or open question responses on surveys from 84 timebank members, and semi-structured interviews with 13 timebank staff. Each timebank was visited at least twice, and all timebank activity was analysed for a period of 12 months. Data were triangulated to improve reliability. The research found that in practice, timebanks were not working as described in theory, there were small numbers of person-to-person exchanges and some timebanks had abandoned this exchange model. Timebanks faced significant implementation challenges including managing risk and safeguarding and the associated bureaucracy, a paternalistic professional culture and the complexity of the timebank mechanism which required adequate resources. Lessons for timebanks are identified, as well as transferable lessons about co-production and volunteering in social care if such schemes are to be successful in the future.