Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer

We propose a probabilistic model to quantify the cost-benefit of mass Vaccination Scenarios (VSs) against COVID-19. Through this approach, we conduct a six-month simulation, from August 31st, 2021 to March 3rd, 2022, of nine VSs, i.e., the three primary vaccine brands in Brazil (CoronaVac, AstraZeneca and Pfizer), each with three different vaccination rates (2nd doses per week). Since each vaccine has different individual-level effectiveness, we measure the population-level benefit as the probability of reaching herd immunity (HI). We quantify and categorize the cost-benefit of VSs through risk graphs that show: (i) monetary cost vs. probability of reaching HI; and (ii) number of new deaths vs. probability of reaching HI. Results show that AstraZeneca has the best cost-benefit when prioritizing acquisition costs, while Pfizer is the most cost-beneficial when prioritizing the number of deaths. This work provides helpful information that can aid public health authorities in Brazil to better plan VSs. Furthermore, our approach is not restricted to Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic, or the mentioned vaccine brands. Indeed, the method is flexible so that this study can be a valuable reference for future cost-benefit analyses in other countries and pandemics, especially in the early stages of vaccination, when data is scarce and uncertainty is high.     

Measuring disease activity and response to treatment in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: Effective treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) requires suppression of the underlying inflammation. Measurement of such inflammation, the disease activity, is mandatory to target treatment and maximize outcomes. However, this is not as straightforward as it may seem.

Areas covered: The many tools developed to measure disease activity in RA, from composite scores and patient-reported outcomes, to laboratory markers and imaging are discussed, with a focus on their utility in guiding therapy and assessing response. The complex issues in measuring disease activity in RA, whether in clinical trials or normal clinical practice, and in the context of national guidelines and recommendations, available time, and resources are considered.

Expert commentary: The key to effective management of RA is the rapid suppression of inflammation, ideally to remission, with maintenance of such remission. The aim is to prevent disability and maximize quality of life. Central to this is the ability to determine disease activity (potentially open to suppression) as opposed to damage (irreversible). A variety of measures are currently available, allowing better assessment of response to treatment. In the future, the development of predictive biomarkers allowing targeting of drugs may revolutionize this field and render the tools of today redundant.