Clinical and Actuarial Prediction of Physical Violence in a Forensic Intellectual Disability Hospital: A Longitudinal Study

Background There is a high rate of physical violence in populations with intellectual disabilities, and this has been linked to problems for the victim, the assailant, members of staff and services. Despite the clinical significance of this behaviour, few studies have assessed methods of predicting its occurrence. The present study examined clinical and actuarial methods of predicting violence in a forensic intellectual disability hospital. Methods The sample for the study consisted of people resident in the hospital during a 1‐year period (n = 124). Clinical prediction used a risk rating made by members of the person's clinical team, whereas actuarial prediction used the number of violent incidents in the 6‐months before the date of the clinical risk assessment. Computerized hospital records of violence in the 6 months after the assessment were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the two methods. Results The clinical method produced an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.65–0.83) in a receiver–operating characteristic curve analysis. The value for the actuarial method was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.86). Both methods performed at levels significantly above chance, but no one method was found to be superior to the other. Conclusions These findings suggest that it is possible to predict who is at risk of violence in forensic populations with intellectual disabilities. Here, the authors discuss the clinical implications of these findings and the clinical application of risk prediction within clinical services.     

A simulation study of three sequential methods for the comparison of two treatment groups when the response criterion is censored

Three recent sequential methods, group sequential analysis (GSA), the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and the triangular test (TT) are well suited to randomized clinical trials with a censored response criterion, as they do not require matched pairs of patients. We undertook a simulation study to investigate their statistical properties and to compare these three methods with the fixed-sample design. Our results suggest that the three methods have the expected statistical properties for size and power; they allow an important reduction of the average number of events before stopping, except with GSA when there is no treatment difference; the triangular test (closed design) appears the optimal design, as the variance of the number of events is smaller than with the sequential probability ratio test (open design) and analysis after every twenty new events does not alter the statistical properties of these sequential methods and enhances their usefulness.     

解磷注射液救治急性有机磷农药中毒34例临床报告

将急性有机磷农药中毒患者69例随机分为2组,一组主要应用解磷注射液治疗(新疗法34例),另一组(35例)主要应用阿托品治疗。两组治愈率分别为97.1％及77.1％,疗效比较差异显著(P<0.05)。新疗法的优点是起效快,作用持久,疗程短(两组比较P<0.001),副反应轻,值得推广应用。并就应用方法及注意事项等作了探讨,也强调了早期足量用药的重要性。     

Clinical Efficacy of New Antiepileptic Drugs in Refractory Partial Epilepsy: Experience in the United States With Three Novel Drugs

Summary: A number of new antiepileptic drugs (AEDs), including topiramate (TPM), felbamate (FBM), and gabapentin (GBP), are approved or believed to be close to approval for marketing in the United States. Key efficacy findings for these AEDs in refractory partial epilepsy were reviewed. Large and significant drug-placebo differences were observed with TPM in two large dose-finding trials conducted in the United States. The minimal effective dose of TPM in the population studied was determined to be approximately 200 mg/day, and doses above 600 mg/day produced good efficacy but little incremental benefit versus the lower dosages for the overall study population. FBM is active in partial epilepsy, although seizure reduction is less marked and drug interactions complicate the findings. GBP is also active in this population, but only the 1,800 mg/day dosage was significantly better than placebo with respect to percent re-sponders. It may be useful to explore higher dosage ranges for both FBM and GBP if they can be well tolerated.     

Relationship of "bleeding on probing" and "gingival index bleeding" as clinical parameters of gingival inflammation

Abstract Bleeding on probing (BOP) and the gingival index have been used to clinically characterize the degree of gingival inflammation. It is, however, unclear to what extent these parameters correlate to each other and to probing pocket depth (PD). The purpose of this clinical study was to evaluate the association between BOP and GI bleeding (scores of 2 and 3), as well as the relationship of these variables to PD, in a group of patients presenting with naturally-occurring gingivitis. Based on screening examinations of 125 subjects with at least 20 teeth, no more than 4 sites with PD over 6 mm, a BOP frequency of 30% or greater, and no systemic condition that would influence the inflammatory response, were selected. 2 weeks after screening they were examined at 6 sites per tooth for plaque index, GI, PD and BOP. A standardized pressure sensitive probe (Florida Probe) with 20 g probing force was used for BOP and PD measurements. In this population, means of 40.9% (S.E.= 1.36) BOP sites and 35.3% (S.E, = 1.81) GI bleeding sites per patient were found. A total of 20,008 sites ranging in PD up to 5.9 mm were evaluated; however, the majority of sites (19,723, 98.6%) presented with <4 mm PD. When sites were evaluated, BOP demonstrated a positive correlation with PD, whereas GI bleeding correlated with PH. For sites characterized by the absence of BOP as well as the absence of GI bleeding (scores 0 and 1), the highest % of agreement between the 2 indices (77.7%) was found in shallow sites (0.1–2 mm). In contrast, when sites presenting with both BOP and GI bleeding were analyzed, the highest % of agreement (85,4%) was found for sites with PD >4.0 mm. In this gingivitis population group, it appears that BOP and GI bleeding evaluate distinct inflammatory1 conditions of the gingival tissues, and the relationship between the 2 clinical parameters may vary according to PD at the individual site examined.     

Reflections and Perspectives on Pediatric Psychology: Editor's Vale Dictum

Reviews major activities of the Editor and changes in the Journalof Pediatric Psychology (JPP) for issues published in 1993 through1997. Significant trends and accomplishments are reviewed, includingthe increased use of Special Issues and Special Sections tohighlight current pediatric psychological research. Articlespublished during the term are analyzed interms of article typeand population type Comarisons are made to earlier trends inJPP publication as reported by Roberts (1 992).     

A study to explore the role of a community oncology nurse specialist

Cancer patients are increasingly being cared for in the community. However, the role of the community oncology nurse specialist (CONS) remains a rare appointment in the United Kingdom. There is little research evidence to substantiate the view that this is a worthwhile and effective role. This study aimed to explore the role of one CONS using a qualitative case study approach. The sample consisted of the CONS, seven patients, no relatives and five community nurses. Semi-structured interviews were used to elicit the view of these participants. In addition, documents containing details of the CONS's work to date were reviewed. A number of the CONS's role components were identified by the different respondent groups. Five themes were identified within the data collected: functions of the CONS, communication between the CONS and other health care professionals, structural and organizational factors, characteristics of the service and benefits to patients and their families. Furthermore, all respondent groups were positive about the service offered by the CONS, and felt that the role was valuable. Some negative features were identified and these were concerned with organizational aspects of the service. The findings suggest the need for further research and evaluation in this area.     

Measuring clinical outcome

At the present time, there are many fundamental issues coming from the Department of Health or from other national organizations, which will have an effect on the future development of the dietetic profession. The British Diatetic Association (BDA) Professional Development Committee will consider these issues, as and when appropriate, and will publish the information in the form of Briefing Papers.
The first Briefing Paper on 'Quality Assurance' was published by the BDA in November 1989. The second on 'Measuring clinical outcome' is published below. In each case the opinion of BDA members and specialist groups has been sought and the Professional Development Committee wishes to thank individuals and the specialist groups for their comments.
The Briefing Papers are intended to provide information and promote discussion among the membership. I would welcome further comments from readers, which may be directed to the British Dietetic Association Office.