Conditional estimation of sensitivity and specificity from a phase 2 biomarker study allowing early termination for futility

Development of a disease screening biomarker involves several phases. In phase 2 its sensitivity and specificity is compared with established thresholds for minimally acceptable performance. Since we anticipate that most candidate markers will not prove to be useful and availability of specimens and funding is limited, early termination of a study is appropriate, if accumulating data indicate that the marker is inadequate. Yet, for markers that complete phase 2, we seek estimates of sensitivity and specificity to proceed with the design of subsequent phase 3 studies. We suggest early stopping criteria and estimation procedures that adjust for bias caused by the early termination option. An important aspect of our approach is to focus on properties of estimates conditional on reaching full study enrollment. We propose the conditional‐UMVUE and contrast it with other estimates, including naïve estimators, the well‐studied unconditional‐UMVUE and the mean and median Whitehead‐adjusted estimators. The conditional‐UMVUE appears to be a very good choice. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

All-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic subjects increases significantly with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR): 10 years' data from the South Tees Diabetes Mortality study.

AIMS: To investigate the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and total and cardiovascular mortality in a population-based cohort of diabetic subjects. METHODS: A longitudinal study using a population-based district diabetes register comprising 3288 subjects in South Tees, UK. The eGFR was calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation. Patients were stratified by baseline eGFR into five stages as per the National Kidney Foundation guidelines: Stage 1, eGFR > 90; Stage 2, eGFR 60-89; Stage 3, eGFR 30-59; Stage 4, eGFR 15-29; and Stage 5, eGFR < 15 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Main outcome was all-cause and cardiovascular mortality between 1 January 1994 and 31 July 2004. RESULTS: At baseline, mean age (58.4 years) differed between groups. Persons with lower eGFR were older (P < 0.001). Thirty-six percent (n = 1193, males 56%) had died by 10 years (cardiovascular cause in 60%). Median follow-up was 10.5 years amounting to 28 342 person years. Stages 4 and 5 (eGFR 相似文献   

氧化苦参碱对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞株生长的影响

目的观察氧化苦参碱对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞株体外增殖率的影响情况。方法噻唑蓝（MTT）比色测定法确定氧化苦参碱对胃癌SGC-7901细胞存活抑制作用。结果试验浓度下氧化苦参碱对SGC-7901细胞增殖抑制作用呈剂量依赖性，当浓度为12mg／ml时，对SGC-7901增殖的抑制率最大，达到87．63％。结论氧化苦参碱对人胃癌SGC-7901细胞的增殖具有明显的抑制作用。     

围生期窒息发生率和死亡率近10年变迁及相关因素

目的 分析近10年来围生期窒息发生率和死亡率的变迁，探讨围生期窒息相关因素及开展新法复苏对围生期窒息发生率和死亡率的影响。方法对近10年郑州大学第三附属医院分娩的所有活产新生儿的病历资料进行回顾性分析，计算窒息的发生率、死亡率、病死率，观察上述指标的逐年变化趋势及季节变化的情况，并探讨性别、双／多胎、出生体质量、胎龄分娩方式对这些指标的影响。结果轻度窒息发生率在开展新法复苏后明显下降，并稳定在1．5％左右，而重度窒息的发生率和病死率均无明显变化。窒息儿的发生率以4月份最高，但死亡率和病死率以7月份最高。窒息的发生还与性别、双／多胎、出生体质量、早产以及阴道助产有关。结论围生期窒息的发生与性别、双／多胎、出生体质量、胎龄密切相关；新法复苏能显著降低轻度窒息的发生率，对重度窒息的发生率和窒息病死率无明显影响；窒息儿的死亡率和病死率与季节有关。     

血清胱抑素C对高血压和糖尿病早期肾功能损伤的诊断价值

目的探讨血清胱抑素C(Cys-C)水平对高血压、糖尿病早期肾功能损害的临床价值。方法收集22例高血压患者、28例糖尿病患者及44例肾病患者的血清标本,用酶法测定血清肌酐、尿素氮,用颗粒增强免疫比浊法测定血清Cys-C,放射免疫法测定β2-微球蛋白。结果血清Cys-C和β2-微球蛋白的异常检出率显著高于血清肌酐、尿素氮;高血压及糖尿病两组患者血清Cys-C水平均较正常对照组明显升高(P<0.01);肾病组各项检测指标均显著高于高血压组、糖尿病组和正常对照组。结论对早期肾功能损害的诊断价值,血清Cys-C测定敏感性稍次于β2-微球蛋白,但其特异性优于血清β2-微球蛋白,综合比较,血清Cys-C可作为高血压及糖尿病早期肾功能损害的辅助诊断指标之一。     

Scintigraphic evaluation of myocardial uptake of thallium 201 and technetium 99m pyrophosphate utilizing a rat model of chronic doxorubicin cardiotoxicity

To evaluate the usefulness of myocardial scintigraphy as a monitoring tool for chronic doxorubicin (DXR) cardiotoxicity, a rat model was used to investigate the relationship between the myocardial uptake of thallium 201 (Tl) or rechnetium 99m pyrophosphate (^99mTc-PPi) and histological changes of the heart. Although there was no significant difference in myocardial Tl uptake between control and DXR-treated rats at an early phase after Tl injection, late-phase Tl uptake was significantly higher in the DXR-treated rats than in the control rats, indicating a slow wash-out of Tl from the myocardium. The wash-out rate calculated from scintigraphic examination of DXR-treated rats was significantly decreased with increasing degree of cardiomyopathy. Since the Tl wash-out rate was sharply decreased even in animals with minimal histological changes, it may be a possible monitoring tool for the early detection of chronic DXR cardiotoxicity. On the other hand, myocardial^99mTc-PPi images could be obtained only in rats with severe myocardial changes and hence would not useful for early detection.     

An internal rate of return approach to investigate pharmacist supply in the united states

Internal rates of return were used to examine the status of pharmacist supply in the United States between the years 1987-1991. Age-earnings profiles were estimated for pharmacists, college graduates and high school graduates. Rates of return to pharmacists and college graduates were compared and a ratio of the pharmacist rate to the college graduate rate was computed for each year. Results suggest a shortage of pharmacists in the United States. Enrollments in pharmacy schools and adopted changes in the training of pharmacists are discussed in relation to their effects on the pharmacist labour market.     

富氧对海拔3700m高原人体运动心力储备的影响

目的　探讨富氧对高原人体运动心力储备方面的影响。方法　对海拔 3 70 0m高原的 1 2名健康青年富氧 (氧浓度为 2 4%～ 2 5 %)前后分别进行踏阶运动 ,采用心力监护仪采集和记录心动周期和心力信息 ,把完成规定运动量运动后第一心音 (S1 )幅值对安静时S1 幅值增加的相应倍数评估心肌收缩能力储备指数 (CCRI) ;利用舒张期和收缩期时限数据计算舒张期 /收缩期比值 (D/S比 )。结果　运动后较安静时HR ,D/S ,S1 幅值均增高 ,有非常显著性差异 (P <0 .0 1 ) ;富氧运动较未富氧运动CCRI,D/S ,S1 幅值增高 ,有显著性差异 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,HR无统计学意义 (P >0 .0 5 )。结论　高原低氧环境下心脏储备主要是心肌收缩能力储备而不是心率储备。富氧对增强机体心力储备具有重要作用     

激光上皮下角膜磨镶术后角膜上皮瓣临床观察

目的 观察及探讨准分子激光上皮下角膜磨镶术(Laser subepithel ialkeratomileusis，LASEK)后，角膜上皮瓣的成活率及其影响因素。方法 对行LASEK治疗的42例(80眼)于术后1、2、3天，1、2、3、4周在裂隙灯显微镜下进行角膜上皮瓣的观察。结果 34例(68眼)，角膜上皮瓣成活，成活占85％(68／80)；未成活8例(12眼)，未成活占15％(12／80)。结论 LASEK术后角膜上皮瓣成活率的高低，决定着LASEK的临床疗效，影响其成活的因素是多方面的。其中角膜上皮瓣边缘不整齐、破裂、对位不良、操作时间过长可能是其主要原因。     

计算法测定肾小球滤过率的临床应用价值

目的 :探讨采用 WCP公式计算方法测定肾小球滤过率 (GFR)的临床应用价值。方法 :采用 99m Tc DTPA清除率测定 6 6例不同疾病住院患者 GFR(Tc GFR) ,并测血清肌酐 (SCr)及尿素氮 (BU N) ,同时以 WCP公式、Robert公式计算 GFR(WCP GFR,Robert GFR) ,以 Cockcroft/ Gault公式计算内生肌酐清除率 (CG CCr) ,所得数据进行对比研究及相关性分析。结果 :除肾功能正常者 CG CCr与 BU N无显著相关外 ,肾功能不全及肾功能正常者的 WCP GFR、Robert GFR、CG CCr均分别与 Tc GFR呈显著正相关(P均 <0 .0 1) ,与 BU N、SCr呈显著负相关 (P<0 .0 1或 P<0 .0 5 ) ;与 Robert GFR、CG CCr比较 ,WCPGFR始终与 Tc GFR最接近 (P均 >0 .0 5 ) ;WCP GFR、Robert GFR、CG CCr与 Tc GFR的平均差绝对值逐渐增大 ,三者间差异显著 (P均 <0 .0 5 )。结论 :WCP GFR、Robert GFR、CG CCr均能在一定程度上准确反映 GFR,而以 WCP GFR更准确 ,且简便、快速、安全而廉价 ,可代替 Tc GFR应用于临床