Predictability of Individual Differences in Activation Processes in a Field Setting Based on Laboratory Measures

The predictability of individual differences in activation processes was investigated in a multi-method laboratory-field study. Male students of physical education (N=58) were examined under various emotionally activating and physically demanding conditions (mental arithmetic, reaction time, free speech, cold pressor test, bicycle ergometer). The assessment included multi-channel recordings of pre-start phases in an athletic stadium and performance on a 1000 m run. Basal heart rate was also recorded during sleep. This multi-situational assessment was repeated after three weeks, three months, and, for most (N=42) subjects, after one year. Significant relationships exist between scores from corresponding conditions of relaxation, anticipation, and performance of physical exercise. However, with the exception of heart rate, correlation coefficients are rather small and seem to be of questionable predictive validity. A generalizability study further supports the general conclusion: To increase the practical relevance in psychophysiological investigations of stress/strain phenomena, such studies should directly assess individual differences in the criterion situations themselves.     

利用神经网络集成预测MHC-Ⅰ类分子结合肽

目的：利用神经网络集成（NNE）预测MHC-Ⅰ类分子结合肽。 方法： 基于HLA-A*0201编码的MHC-Ⅰ类分子结合肽数据库（含有628个9聚物）及其结合能力分类，利用NNE分别对具有无、低、中和高4类亲合性的结合肽进行分类预测；同时还进一步利用T细胞真实表位集（含50个表位）评估了NNE的预测性能。 结果： 集成数为12的NNE对上述分类的平均预测命中率可达0.8,而且NNE对潜在T细胞表位的预测能力也较高，约84%的真实表位归于高和中等亲合性的潜在抗原肽一类。 结论： 可以利用神经网络集成预测MHC-Ⅰ类分子结合肽，并进而预测相应的T细胞表位。经适当修改，NNE预测工具可扩展为能涵盖任意长度的Ⅰ类分子结合肽甚至可扩展到Ⅱ类分子结合肽的预测。     

Cord blood IgE. III. Prediction of IgE high-response and allergy

Screening of total IgE in 2814 cord blood samples was analysed by Phadebas IgE PRIST in 2 1-year birth cohorts (1983–1984 and 1985–1986) in Denmark (n= 1189 + 1625). For follow-up we chose all infants with cord blood IgE≥0.5 kU/1 and a randomly chosen group of the same size with cord blood IgE < 0.5 kU/1. A total group of 762 infants were clinically evaluated at 18 months of age, and in 688 of these we evaluated total and specific IgE. A diagnosis of definite atopy, probable atopy or no atopy was established. In the present study we defined allergic disease as atopic disease combined with elevated total IgE. We found a statistically significant correlation between cord blood IgE and IgE at 18 months of age. Significantly more infants with elevated cord blood IgE had developed allergic disease at 18 months. A cut-off value of 0.3 kU/1 for cord blood IgE was superior to the originally suggested 0.5 kU/1. Significantly more infants with elevated cord blood IgE had developed specific IgE antibodies at 18 months. The most frequent specific IgE antibody was towards cow's milk. Specific IgE antibodies were very rarely found when total IgE was not elevated. A total IgE at the age of 18 months > 26 kU/1 could be regarded as elevated. With regard to allergic disease the positive predictive values of cord blood lgE≥0.3 kU/1 in the 2 series were 21 % and the corresponding sensitivities 67% and 46%, respectively. The risk of developing allergic disease was elevated with a factor 3 to 4 when cord blood IgE ≥ 0.3 kU/1. In a high-risk group based on atopic predisposition and elevated eord blood IgE ≥0.5 kU/1 the relative risk of allergic disease was 5, the predictive value of positive test 38%, the sensitivity 24% and the specificity 96%. Clinical aspects Cord blood IgE was a good predictor of allergic disease at the age of 18 months. A cord blood cut-off IgE value of 0.3 kU/l was superior to other cord blood IgE values with the Phadebas IgE PRIST method.     

Patient involvement in oral hygiene cooperation: a factor analytic study

In a previous study the concept "patient involvement" was found to be strongly predictive of therapy outcome. On the basis of a questionnaire concerning patients' background and motivation, 82 patients were interviewed before treatment. To cover the concept "patient involvement" 16 variables were considered as relevant measures. In a factor analysis four factors accounted for 90% of the common variance. The factors were interpreted in terms of: initial attitudes, attendance, self-confidence and teeth-mindedness.     

妊娠期高血压患者妊娠结局调查及相关影响因素分析

目的 调查温州市人民医院2018—2021年妊娠期高血压疾病(hypertensive disorders of pregnancy,HDP)患者妊娠结局,并分析其妊娠结局的相关影响因素,为临床采取对应干预措施、降低不良妊娠结局发生风险提供参考。 方法 选取2018年1月—2021年12月于温州市人民医院分娩的400例HDP患者(单胎妊娠)的临床资料,开展回顾性分析,根据其妊娠结局分为不良妊娠结局组(n=157)与正常妊娠结局组(n=243)。比较两组临床资料,分析HDP患者不良妊娠结局发生的影响因素,构建logistic回归模型方程,并分析logistic回归模型的预测价值。 结果 400例HDP患者中共157例(39.25%)发生不良妊娠结局;单因素分析显示患者年龄、孕前BMI、分娩方式、妊娠期糖尿病(gestational diabetes mellitus,GDM)、负性情绪与不良妊娠结局的发生有关(P＜0.05);logistic回归模型显示,年龄≥35岁(OR=23.815,95%CI:10.370～54.655)、孕前BMI≥24.0(OR=16.010,95%CI:6.832～34.620)、阴道分娩(OR=16.336,95%CI:7.325～36.403)、GDM(OR=26.337,95%CI:11.908～58.253)、负性情绪(OR=20.682,95%CI:2.791～54.876)均为HDP患者不良妊娠结局发生的独立危险因素(P＜0.05);5个独立危险因素构建logistic回归模型方程为logistic(P)=-4.125+年龄×3.170+孕前BMI×2.773+阴道分娩×2.793+GDM×3.271+负性情绪×3.029;当logistic(P)=4.11,预测HDP患者发生不良妊娠结局的曲线下面积为0.899(95%CI:0.865～0.926),预测敏感度为84.36%,特异度为82.17%;根据设定的评分标准与不良妊娠结局发生情况,可将HDP患者划分为低风险(0～4分)、中风险(5～8分)与高风险(9～12分)。 结论 HDP患者不良妊娠结局发生率较高,年龄、孕前BMI、阴道分娩、GDM、负性情绪均为不良妊娠结局发生的影响因素,构建logistic回归模型可预测不良妊娠结局发生风险,有助于临床制定相关干预措施。     

放射卫生机构在核辐射卫生应急体系作用探讨

分析和探讨放射卫生机构在核辐射卫生应急体系中发挥的作用。通过对比发现,核辐射紧急医学救援基地多由取得放射卫生技术服务（甲级）资质或放射性疾病诊断机构资质的单位承担建设任务。放射卫生机构在平时工作中积累的辐射监测、污染检测、剂量估算、健康效应评价等技术能力可在核辐射卫生应急处置中发挥重要作用,实现能力建设的“平急结合”。建议各级放射卫生机构继续发挥自身所长,通过参加放射卫生监测项目的机会提高自身能力,并积极参与放射卫生技术机构检测能力考核,为核辐射卫生应急工作做好人才和技术储备。     

The Role of Maternal Weight in the Hierarchy of Macrosomia Predictors; Overall Effect of Analysis of Three Prediction Indicators

So far it has not been established which maternal features play the most important role in newborn macrosomia. The aim of this study is to provide assessment of a hierarchy of twenty six (26) maternal characteristics in macrosomia prediction. A Polish prospective cohort of women with singleton pregnancy (N = 912) which was recruited in the years 2015–2016 has been studied. Two analyses were performed: for probability of macrosomia > 4000 g (n = 97) (vs. 755 newborns 2500–4000 g); and for birthweight > 90th percentile (n = 99) (vs. 741 newborns 10–90th percentile). A multiple logistic regression was used (with 95% confidence intervals (CI)). A hierarchy of significance of potential predictors was established after summing up of three prediction indicators (NRI, IDI and AUC) calculated for the basic prediction model (maternal age + parity) extended with one (test) predictor. ‘Net reclassification improvement’ (NRI) focuses on the reclassification table describing the number of women in whom an upward or downward shift in the disease probability value occurred after a new factor had been added, including the results for healthy and ill women. ‘Integrated discrimination improvement’ (IDI) shows the difference between the value of mean change in predicted probability between the group of ill and healthy women when a new factor is added to the model. The area under curve (AUC) is a commonly used indicator. Results. The macrosomia risk was the highest for prior macrosomia (AOR = 7.53, 95%CI: 3.15–18.00, p < 0.001). A few maternal characteristics were associated with more than three times higher macrosomia odds ratios, e.g., maternal obesity and gestational age ≥ 38 weeks. A different hierarchy was shown by the prediction study. Compared to the basic prediction model (AUC = 0.564 (0.501–0.627), p = 0.04), AUC increased most when pre-pregnancy weight (kg) was added to the base model (AUC = 0.706 (0.649–0.764), p < 0.001). The values of IDI and NRI were also the highest for the model with maternal weight (IDI = 0.061 (0.039–0.083), p < 0.001), and (NRI = 0.538 (0.33–0.746), p < 0.001). Adding another factor to the base model was connected with significantly weaker prediction, e.g., for gestational age ≥ 38 weeks (AUC = 0.602 (0.543–0.662), p = 0.001), (IDI = 0.009 (0.004; 0.013), p < 0.001), and (NRI = 0.155 (0.073; 0.237), p < 0.001). After summing up the effects of NRI, IDI and AUC, the probability of macrosomia was most strongly improved (in order) by: pre-pregnancy weight, body mass index (BMI), excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m². Maternal height, prior macrosomia, fetal sex-son, and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) occupied an intermediate place in the hierarchy. The main conclusions: newer prediction indicators showed that (among 26 features) excessive pre-pregnancy weight/BMI and excessive GWG played a much more important role in macrosomia prediction than other maternal characteristics. These indicators more strongly highlighted the differences between predictors than the results of commonly used odds ratios.     

某传染病医院空调通风系统设计

结合某新建传染病医院实例,分别从空调冷热源系统形式、通风系统、空调冷凝水系统等方面,系统性地介绍了负压病区空调通风系统的设计要点,并提出了合理性建议。     

基于季节性ARIMA模型的新疆肺结核发病预测分析

目的 探讨季节性时间序列模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)在新疆肺结核发病预测中的应用,并验证模型的可行性和适用性。 方法 采用季节性ARIMA(p, d, q )(P, D, Q)_s拟合2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核月发病人数,建立多个季节时间序列模型并进行比较,选出最优模型对2019年9—12月肺结核发病人数进行预测。 结果 2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核累积发病人数为627 869例,年平均发病人数为3 567例。 新疆地区肺结核月发病数具有季节性,1—5月平均发病数高于平均水平,6—12月平均发病数低于平均水平,发病高峰为1月和3月,发病低谷为9月。通过赤池信息量(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)和贝叶斯信息量(Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC)最小原则得出,ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂是最优模型,其残差序列为白噪声,参数的回归系数均具有统计学意义,拟合的平均绝对百分比误差MAPE为8.723%。预测的MAPE为18.674%,真实值均处于预测值的95%置信区间内。 结论 ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂模型能够较好地拟合新疆肺结核发病数据,并进行短期预测,对新疆卫生防控措施的制定具有一定指导意义。     

我国常见细菌耐药趋势预测研究:基于灰色GM (1,1)模型

 目的 通过对耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌（MRSA）、耐碳青霉烯类铜绿假单胞菌（CRPA）、耐碳青霉烯类鲍曼不动杆菌（CRAB）、耐第三代头孢菌素的大肠埃希菌（3GCR-E.coli）、耐第三代头孢菌素的肺炎克雷伯菌（3GCR-KP）等细菌耐药数据构建灰色预测模型,分析细菌耐药特征的变化趋势,探讨灰色预测模型在细菌耐药领域的应用价值。方法 采用2014-2018年全国细菌耐药监测报告中MRSA、CRPA和CRAB、3GCR-E.coli、3GCR-KP等耐药率数据构建灰色预测GM （1,1）模型。用后验差比C值和小误差概率P值评估模型精度,用相对误差和级比偏差评估模型拟合效果,并用2019-2020年数据对模型预测效果进行验证。最终根据模型对2021-2023年的耐药率进行预测。结果 本研究构建的GM （1,1）模型对MRSA、CRPA、CRAB、3GCR-E.coli和3GCR-KP等细菌耐药率预测效果较好,根据该模型预测到2023年其耐药率分别可降低至23.9%、15.2%、50.2%、43.8%、26.1%。结论 全国针对细菌耐药情况采取的控制措施取得明显成效,GM （1,1）模型对细菌耐药率预测效果较好,可在细菌耐药管理领域推广应用。