心房颤动患者预后评分系统的构建和比较

目的构建心房颤动人群预后预测工具,并对其预测能力进行比较评估。方法连续性纳入275例新发心房颤动患者,随访终点包括卒中和全因死亡。收集相关基线资料,检测患者基线血浆N末端B型利钠肽原(N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide,NT-proBNP)、高敏肌钙蛋白T(high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T,hs-cTnT)、生长分化因子15(growth differentiation factor-15,GDF-15)浓度。运用Cox比例风险模型构建卒中和死亡风险评分系统。应用C-统计量和校准图比较评分系统的预测能力。结果多因素Cox回归显示,糖尿病、短暂性脑缺血发作(transient ischemic attack,TIA)、卒中史、血浆NT-proBNP浓度与心房颤动患者卒中风险独立相关;年龄、心衰史、血浆hs-cTnT和GDF-15浓度与心房颤动患者全因死亡风险独立相关。我们构建的卒中风险评分系统预测能力与国外年龄、生物标志物和临床病史(age,biomarker,clinical history,ABC)卒中评分以及CHA2DS2-VASc评分相当,死亡风险评分系统与国外ABC死亡评分相当,优于CHA2DS2-VASc评分。结论本研究构建的心房颤动患者卒中和死亡风险预测评分系统表现出较好的预测性能,此评分系统的列线图可望作为临床决策的辅助工具。     

胆囊鳞癌及腺鳞癌临床病理特征分析及预后预测模型构建

目的 分析胆囊鳞癌和腺鳞癌的预后影响因素并构建预后预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2012年1月至2021年12月东方肝胆外科医院行外科手术切除的114例胆囊鳞癌及腺鳞癌患者的临床资料。通过单因素和多因素Cox回归分析确定胆囊鳞癌和腺鳞癌的预后影响因素,并构建列线图（Nomogram）预测模型。应用C-指数、ROC曲线以及校准曲线对模型进行评估。结果 单因素分析结果提示,T分期、TNM分期、切缘性质、血管侵犯、联合肝切除、淋巴结清扫是胆囊鳞癌和腺鳞癌患者术后生存的影响因素。多因素Cox回归分析提示,只有T分期、联合肝切除是鳞癌和腺鳞癌患者术后生存的重要影响因素,此时赤池信息测量准则（AIC）值最小（720.66）,并据此建立胆囊鳞癌和腺鳞癌Nomogram预测模型。该模型C-指数为0.614(95%Ci 0.585～0.643)。1年、2年、3年ROC曲线下面积分别为0.605、0.598、0.592。校准曲线图可见实际观测值与预测值具有较好的一致性。结论 T分期、联合肝切除是胆囊鳞癌和腺鳞癌患者术后生存的重要影响因素,据此建立的Nomogram具有一定的区分度和准确度,有一定的临床参考价值...     

The GLIM criteria as an effective tool for survival prediction in gastric cancer patients

BackgroundThe Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition released a new version of the malnutrition criteria (GLIM criteria). To investigate the influence of the GLIM criteria on the long-term efficacy of radical gastric cancer surgery and establish a nomogram to predict the long-term prognosis of patients with gastric cancer.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 1121 patients with gastric cancer in our department from 2010 to 2013 was performed. A nomogram was established to predict overall survival (OS) based on the GLIM criteria. Patients were divided into the low-risk group (LRG) and high-risk group (HRG) based on the established nomogram.ResultsMultivariate Cox regression analyses showed that GLIM criteria was an independent risk factor for the 5-year OS (HR = 1.768, Cl:1.341–2.329, p < 0.001). The C index, AUC and Time-ROC of the nomogram were significantly better than that of GLIM criteria and traditional criteria. The 5-year OS of patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy in the high-risk group was significantly higher than that of patients without chemotherapy (45.77% vs. 24.73%,p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe GLIM criteria independently influence the long-term outcome of patients after radical gastric cancer surgery. The established nomogram can predict the long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for HRG can significantly improve the 5-year OS of patients.     

The Value of Radiotherapy in Patients With Resectable Stage IIIA Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer in the Era of Individualized Treatment: A Population-Based Analysis

IntroductionNo consensus has been achieved on the benefit of radiotherapy for resected stage IIIA NSCLC patients. The division of stage IIIA has changed significantly in 2017. This study aims to explore the effects of radiotherapy on the survival of patients with resectable stage IIIA NSCLC in the new era.Patients and MethodsPatients diagnosed with NSCLC between 2010 and 2018 were identified in the 8th edition TNM classification from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A nomogram was developed by integrating all independent predictors for lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS). The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and subgroup analysis were applied to mitigate potential bias. Survival analyses were conducted using the Kaplan Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsA total of 2632 stage IIIA NSCLC patients were enrolled. The C-index of the nomogram for the prediction of LCSS was 0.636 (95% CI, 0.616-0.656). In the group of patients with N2 stage who featured more than 5 positive regional lymph nodes, compared with non-PORT, PORT did prolong postoperative survival time (50 vs. 31 months; P= .005). N2 patients with visceral pleural invasion (VPI), older (age >65), or had a larger tumor (size >3 cm) could also benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy.ConclusionTreatment protocol for stage IIIA NSCLC patients should be individualized. Based on our findings, N2 patients with more than 5 positive regional lymph nodes, VPI, larger tumor size (greater than 3 cm), and older (age above 65) could benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy. Further well-designed randomized trials are warranted.     

Improvement of blood loss volume estimation by paramedics using a pictorial nomogram: A developmental study

IntroductionTo propose and evaluate a nomogram to assist paramedics to visually estimate the external blood loss on a non-absorbent surface and to identify whether the nomogram improves visual estimation.MethodsThe study was a prospective, paired-control design (pre-training control group & post-training group), utilizing Emergency Medical Assistant (EMA) I and II trainees from the Hong Kong Fire Services Ambulance Command Training School. A nomogram (blood loss volume to area on a non-absorbent surface) was prepared to aid blood loss estimation. All participants estimated four scenarios of blood pools twice (A: 180 mL; B: 470 mL; C: 940 mL; D: 1550 mL) before and after using the nomogram. Every participant received two-minute training on how to use the nomogram correctly. The difference between the estimations and the actual volume in each scenario was calculated. The absolute percentage errors were used for direct comparison and identification of improvement between visual estimation and the use of the nomogram.ResultsSixty-one participants with an average of 3-year paramedic field experience were recruited by convenience sampling. In combining all scenarios, the median of absolute percentage error of 61 participants was 43% (95%CI 38.0–50.9%) in visual estimation, while it was 23% (95%CI 17.4–27.0%) when using the nomogram. There was a significant reduction in absolute percentage error between visual estimation and the use of the nomogram (p < 0.0001).ConclusionThe nomogram significantly improved the estimation of external blood loss volume.     

T1期乳腺癌患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移风险列线图的建立

目的：建立T1期（原发肿瘤最大直径 2?cm及以下）乳腺癌患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移风险的列线图。 方法：收集2010年1月至2015年6月在浙江大学医学院附属第二医院及浙江大学丽水医院接受手术治疗的T1期乳腺癌患者的临床病理资料。共入组907例患者,其中浙江大学医学院附属第二医院患者作为建模组（ n=573）,浙江大学丽水医院患者作为验证组（ n=334）。运用单因素Logistic回归分析风险因素,多因素Logistic回归进一步筛选独立影响因素,利用影响因素建立预测T1期乳腺癌患者同侧腋窝淋巴结转移风险的列线图。运用C指数、受试者操作特征曲线、校准曲线以及临床决策曲线分析模型的校准度、预测能力和临床效益。 结果：单因素分析结果显示,T1期乳腺癌患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移与原发肿瘤大小、脉管癌栓、Ki-67、组织病理学分级和分子分型相关（ P<0.05或 P<0.01）。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,T1期乳腺癌患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移的独立影响因素为原发肿瘤大于0.5 cm、有脉管癌栓、Ki-67阳性、雌激素受体（ER）阳性以及组织病理学分级2~3级（ P<0.05或 P<0.01）。基于上述5个独立影响因素构建列线图预测模型,建模组和验证组C指数分别为0.739（95% CI：0.693~0.785）和0.736（95% CI：0.678~0.793）,模型预测能力良好。建模组和验证组校正曲线、临床决策曲线提示模型一致性和临床获益良好。 结论：原发肿瘤大小、组织病理学分级、脉管癌栓、Ki-67和ER状态是T1期乳腺癌患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移的重要预测因素。建立的风险预测列线图可以有效预测患者发生同侧腋窝淋巴结转移的风险,为临床医生制订个体化的腋窝管理方案提供参考。     

青年结直肠黏液腺癌预后列线图的建立与验证

目的利用美国监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库(SEER)建立青年结直肠黏液腺癌(MAC)预后列线图并对其进行验证。方法收集SEER数据库中2004—2015年936例青年结直肠MAC的资料,利用R软件将其随机分为建模组(n=656)和验证组(n=280)。通过COX比例风险回归模型筛选建模组人群的预后因素,并建立列线图。利用一致性指数(C-index)和校准曲线对列线图进行内部验证与外部验证,评估其预测效能。结果建模组的COX回归分析显示,婚姻状态、分化程度、T分期、N分期、M分期、手术是患者预后的独立危险因素,以上因素均用于构建列线图。建模组的C-index为0.813(95%CI 0.788~0.838),验证组的C-index为0.779(95%CI 0.740~0.818)。2组1、3、5年的特异生存率校准曲线图亦显示出良好的一致性。结论研究构建的预后列线图对青年结直肠MAC患者生存具有良好的预测价值,可提高其预测准确度。     

个体化预测老年下咽癌术后吞咽障碍的风险列线图模型的建立及验证

目的 探究老年下咽癌术后吞咽障碍的危险因素,以便于临床能够针对性制定防治措施。方法 收集2013年1月至2020年9月进入我院进行手术治疗的70例老年下咽癌患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析,根据吞咽障碍的发生情况将所选患者分为正常组和吞咽障碍组,发生吞咽障碍的独立危险因素选择Logistic回归进行分析,并建立老年下咽癌术后吞咽障碍的风险列线图模型。结果 所选70例老年下咽癌患者有41例患者术后发生吞咽障碍,发生率为58.57%。由单因素分析结果可知,吞咽障碍组与正常组年龄、抽烟史、手术方式、肿瘤T分期及术后放疗情况的差异具有统计学意义(P＜0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄、抽烟史、手术方式、肿瘤T分期及术后放疗为老年下咽癌患者接受手术治疗后发生吞咽障碍的独立危险因素(P＜0.05),且与老年下咽癌患者接受手术治疗后发生吞咽障碍高度相关。基于年龄、抽烟史、手术方式、肿瘤T分期及术后放疗等5项老年下咽癌患者术后吞咽障碍的独立危险因素,建立预测老年下咽癌患者术后吞咽障碍风险列线图模型,并对该模型进行验证,预测值和实测值基本一致,表明本研究的列线图预测模型的预测能力良好,同时本研究使用Bootstrap内部验证法对老年下咽癌患者术后吞咽障碍的列线图模型进行验证,C-index指数达0.899(95%CI:0.863~0.935),表明本研究列线图模型的精准度和区分度良好。结论 年龄、抽烟史、手术方式、肿瘤T分期及术后放疗为老年下咽癌患者接受手术治疗后发生吞咽障碍的独立危险因素,所建立的列线图模型预测能力和区分度良好,临床上可以据此采取针对性的措施对吞咽障碍进行防治。     

Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者Nomogram预后模型的构建

【摘要】 目的 构建Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌(EC)术后患者Nomogram预后列线图预测模型,并验证其准确性。 方法 回顾性分析2010年1月1日～2014年12月31日遵义医科大学附属医院腹部肿瘤科收治的Ⅰ期具有高危因素的子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者97例。采用Kaplan-Meier法进行单因素生存分析,Log-rank 检验比较生存率的差异,多因素Cox比例风险模型分析预后的独立危险因素。ROC曲线确定血液学指标最佳截断值。R语言构建Nomogram生存模型,使用一致性指数（C-index）及校准曲线（Calibration curve）评估模型准确度。结果 97例EC患者中死亡11例,复发18例。术后辅助治疗可改善其生存预后。病理分化、淋巴脉管间隙受侵（LVSI）、深肌层浸润、术后辅助治疗、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值（NLR）、血小板/淋巴细胞比值（PLR）、淋巴细胞/单核细胞比值（LMR）是Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌患者的预后影响因素（P＜0.05）,进一步构建的OS-Nomogram预测模型C-index为0.896,3年、6年校准曲线显示准确性较高;DFS.Nomogram预测模型C-index为0.786,3年、6年、9年校准曲线显示准确性较高。结论 列线图可较准确预测Ⅰ期高危子宫内膜样腺癌术后患者的预后,利于临床工作者对其进行随访或提供个体化精准治疗。