Prediction impact curve is a new measure integrating intervention effects in the evaluation of risk models

ObjectiveWe propose a new measure of assessing the performance of risk models, the area under the prediction impact curve (auPIC), which quantifies the performance of risk models in terms of their average health impact in the population.Study Design and SettingUsing simulated data, we explain how the prediction impact curve (PIC) estimates the percentage of events prevented when a risk model is used to assign high-risk individuals to an intervention. We apply the PIC to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study to illustrate its application toward prevention of coronary heart disease.ResultsWe estimated that if the ARIC cohort received statins at baseline, 5% of events would be prevented when the risk model was evaluated at a cutoff threshold of 20% predicted risk compared to 1% when individuals were assigned to the intervention without the use of a model. By calculating the auPIC, we estimated that an average of 15% of events would be prevented when considering performance across the entire interval.ConclusionWe conclude that the PIC is a clinically meaningful measure for quantifying the expected health impact of risk models that supplements existing measures of model performance.     

Efficacy of parthenolide on lung histopathology in a murine model of asthma

BackgroundParthenolide is the active constituent of the plant ‘Tanacetum parthenium’ (Feverfew) which has been used for centuries as a folk remedy for inflammatory conditions.Aim of the studyIn this study we aimed to investigate the effects of parthenolide in a murine model of chronic asthma.Materials and methodsThirty-five BALB/c mice were divided into five groups; I (control), II (placebo), III (dexamethasone), IV (parthenolide) and V (dexamethasone and parthenolide combination). Lung histology was evaluated after treatment with the study drugs. Levels of interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-5 were determined by ELISA.ResultsHistologic parameters except the number of mast and goblet cells improved in the parthenolide group when compared with placebo. All parameters except basal membrane thickness and number of mast cells were improved significantly better in the group receiving dexamethasone when compared with the parthenolide group. Improvement of most of the histologic parameters was similar in Groups III and V. Interleukin-4 levels were significantly reduced in the parthenolide group when compared to the placebo group.ConclusionWe demonstrated that parthenolide administration alleviated some of the pathological changes in asthma. But parthenolide alone is not efficient as dexamethasone therapy and the parthenolide and dexamethasone combination also did not add any beneficial effect to the dexamethasone treatment.     

SHR、WKY大鼠与SD大鼠注意缺陷多动障碍模型行为学特征的比较

目的 比较SHR、WKY、SD大鼠行为学特征，探寻研究SHR大鼠注意缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）理想的对照模型。方法 运用旷场实验统计大鼠运动距离、运动速度、穿格数及理毛次数来评价SHR、WKY、SD大鼠自主运动情况；运用水迷宫实验检测三组大鼠的学习记忆能力。结果 旷场实验结果显示，SHR大鼠在总运动量、平均运动速度及穿格次数上较WKY及SD大鼠均显著增加（P<0.01）；与WKY大鼠相比，SD大鼠运动距离显著高于WKY组（P<0.01），其运动速度及穿格数略高于WKY组（P<0.05）；水迷宫隐匿站台实验中，与SHR大鼠相比，SD大鼠潜伏期较长（P<0.05），在潜伏期运动距离上，SD大鼠在训练第1天、第3天及第4天运动距离较SHR大鼠延长（P<0.05或P<0.01）；比较WKY组，SD大鼠潜伏期及潜伏期运动距离较WKY在各个训练时间均有不同程度的下降（P<0.05或P<0.01）。在空间探索阶段，SD大鼠穿台次数及目标象限运动时间、距离比率等均较SHR大鼠有所减少（P<0.05），而较WKY大鼠则有不同程度的升高（P<0.05或P<0.01）。结论 WKY大鼠与SHR大鼠行为学差异过大，两者的比较存在一定的不足，增设SD大鼠作为SHR大鼠的对照组能够提升SHR大鼠行为学特征的可比性，更为客观的反映SHR大鼠的行为学特征。     

PRECEDE模式对改善慢性心力衰竭患者生活质量的干预效果研究

目的运用PRECEDE模式建立适用于慢性心力衰竭患者的健康促进计划,并观察其对心力衰竭患者生活质量的干预效果,探讨其可行性。方法便利抽样法选取2014年3月至2015年2月长沙市某三级甲等医院老年心血管科和心血管内科住院的慢性心力衰竭患者62例为研究对象,采用随机数字表法将其分为观察组和对照组。对照组患者给予常规护理,观察组患者除接受常规护理和治疗外还将接受为期3个月的基于PRECEDE模式设计的健康促进计划干预。结果干预在情绪维度、其他维度、总分上比较,差异有统计学意义(P0.05),观察组在干预后3个月MLHFQ各维度及总分高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。时间对各维度及总分的比较,差异均有统计学意义(均P0.05),干预和时间在情绪维度、其他维度及总分上存在交互效应(P0.05)。结论 PRECEDE模式健康促进计划有效可行,能提高慢性心力衰竭患者生活质量。     

当前国内外互联网药品销售市场调查及模式研究

互联网药品销售是互联网作为商务平台工具的重要体现。本文介绍了国内外互联网药品销售的现状，分析当前国内互联网药品销售的主要模式，并提出相应的建议。     

Emmetropisation and the aetiology of refractive errors

The distribution of human refractive errors displays features that are not commonly seen in other biological variables. Compared with the more typical Gaussian distribution, adult refraction within a population typically has a negative skew and increased kurtosis (ie is leptokurtotic). This distribution arises from two apparently conflicting tendencies, first, the existence of a mechanism to control eye growth during infancy so as to bring refraction towards emmetropia/low hyperopia (ie emmetropisation) and second, the tendency of many human populations to develop myopia during later childhood and into adulthood. The distribution of refraction therefore changes significantly with age. Analysis of the processes involved in shaping refractive development allows for the creation of a life course model of refractive development. Monte Carlo simulations based on such a model can recreate the variation of refractive distributions seen from birth to adulthood and the impact of increasing myopia prevalence on refractive error distributions in Asia.