1990—2019年中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析

背景 乳腺癌位居全球女性癌因死亡首位,具有发病率高、疾病负担重等特点。目的 评估1990—2019年中国女性乳腺癌发病率及死亡率的流行变化趋势。方法 提取《2019年全球疾病负担》数据库中1990—2019年中国≥15岁女性乳腺癌发病及死亡数据,应用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型对中国1990—2019年女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势进行拟合,进一步估计中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。结果 1990—2019年中国女性乳腺癌粗发病率从14.14/10万升至52.81/10万,粗死亡率从7.22/10万升至13.40/10万。乳腺癌标化发病率总体呈上升趋势(1990年为17.07/10万,2019年为35.61/10万),标化死亡率呈平稳略减趋势(1990年为9.16/10万,2019年为8.98/10万)。年龄-时期-队列模型分析结果显示：所有年龄组女性乳腺癌发病率净漂移值为2.58%〔95%CI(2.34%,2.83%)〕,局部漂移值在65～69岁年龄段达到最高,为3.46%〔95%CI(3.11%,3.80%)〕;死亡率净漂移值为-0.75%〔95%CI(-1...     

2835例成人心脏病构成比分析

本文对1957～1963年及1979～1987年二个阶段我院内科住院的心脏病2835例进行构成比对比分析。冠心病、心肌疾病、心律失常的构成比在第二阶段中明显升高,而高心病、肺心病及先心病的构成比两个阶段变化不大,风心病、克山病、心包炎及梅心病的构成比则明显下降。本文为心血管疾病的防治工作提供了流行病学方面的基础资料。     

北京部分地区15年脑卒中事件变化趋势—WHO—SINO—MONICA研究

目的 探讨脑卒中在北京地区变化趋势。方法 采用北京地区心血管病人群监测（WHO MONICA方案）诊断标准，通过三级监测网对人群脑卒中发病进行登记监测。结果 ①北京人群15年间（1984－1988年）脑卒中标化发病率呈显著上升的趋势（＋9．0％／年，P＝0．039）。男性为（＋11．4％／年，P＝0．027），女性为（＋8．2％／年），但无显著性差异；人群脑卒中首次发作标化发病率也呈上升的趋势（＋9．1％／年，P＝0．023），男性较女性上升更明显。②人群脑卒中标化死亡呈显著下降的趋势（－6．6％／年，P＝0．042）。城市人群较农村人群下降明显。③人群脑卒中病死率下降趋势明显（－16．7％／年，P＝0．014）。女性较男性更明显。结论 人群脑卒中发病率15年来呈显著上升的趋势，主要是首次发生率的增加，并且与高血压患病率相平等，人群高血压的防治势在必行。     

Predicting lung cancer death in Africa and Asia: differences with WHO estimates

Objective  Reliable cancer burden estimates are rarely available from most developing countries where cancer registration is lacking. This study provided estimates on the current and future number of lung cancer deaths in Indonesia, Vietnam and Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa at large. Methods  The number of lung cancer deaths was estimated from detailed smoking prevalence data (obtained from surveys among 8,726 rural individuals aged 25–74 years in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Ethiopia in 2005–2006) and on lung cancer rate estimates among non-smokers. Results  Our estimate for lung cancer deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa is 44,076 in 2005, which is 2.6 times the most recent WHO estimate in 2003 (17,000 deaths). A similar ratio is found for the country-specific estimate in Ethiopia. Our estimates are only slightly higher than the WHO’s in Indonesia, and Vietnam. The attributable risk of smoking for lung cancer death among men was 39% in Ethiopia, 80% in Indonesia and 85% in Vietnam. We expect the annual number of lung cancer deaths to double by 2025, even if the smoking prevalence is assumed not to increase further. Conclusions  WHO estimates on lung cancer deaths in Asia appear to be slightly lower than our study results; however, in Africa, the burden appears to be largely underestimated. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Nawi Ng and Volker Winkler have equal contribution to this paper.     

Intensive therapy for life-threatening medical complications of haematological malignancy

The medical records of 22 consecutive adult admissions to an intensive care unit (ICU) with life-threatening complications of haematological malignancy, or its treatment, are reviewed. Twenty patients (91%) were in acute respiratory failure, and 17 of the 22 patients required intermittent positive pressure ventilation (IPPV). The in-unit mortality was 55%, but only 4 patients (18%) survived to leave the hospital. Although the unit mortality appeared to be related to the acute physiology score (APS), this small series did not demonstrate a clear relationship between the APS and long-term survival (discharge from hospital). There were, however, significant differences in the number of organ systems involved between those who died on the ICU and those who returned to the ward, as well as between those who survived to leave hospital and those who died. No patient with more than three systems involved became a long-term survivor. All long-term survivors had either reasonable peripheral white cell counts throughout or their bone marrow showed significant recovery prior to discharge from the ICU. Unresponsive malignant disease and a failure to recover bone marrow function were major factors in those patients who died shortly after discharge from the ICU. Although long-term survival rates are low and are probably largely determined by the progress of the underlying malignancy, intensive care was life-saving in four patients, three of whom are alive several years after discharge.     

高原肺水肿398例临床分析

目的：探讨高原肺水肿的临床特点，总结其诊治经验；方法：对我院1986年6月至2001年4月收住的资料较为完整的高原肺水肿患者临床资料进行回顾性分析研究；结果：海拔4000m以上者发病178例，占44.72%；以上呼吸道感染为诱因发病者172例，占43．22％；X线表现单侧肺病变以右肺为多；窦性心动过速为心电图异常主要类型，占62．31％；合并高原脑水肿者死亡9例，占死亡的75％，是导致死亡的重要因素；结论：高原肺水肿海拔愈高，发病率愈高；上呼吸道感染可诱发高原肺水肿；合并高原脑水肿者，病死率明显增高。     

广东省1991～2000年伤害死亡趋势及原因分析

目的 探讨广东省伤害死亡的原因和趋势，为采取干预措施提供基础数据，方法 通过疾病监测系统收集资料，用描述性流行病学方法阐述伤害死亡趋势和原因。结果 广东省10年伤害的平均死亡率为32.00/10万，占总死亡的7.24%，在死因顺位中排第5位。但按潜在寿命损伤年（YPLL）排第1位；伤害死亡率农村高于城市，男性高于女性，伤害是青壮年死亡的主要原因，10年伤害的死亡率呈逐年上升趋势，交通事故，淹死，自杀，坠落和中毒是伤害死亡的前5位原因，不同年龄组人群伤害死亡的原因顺位是不同的，结论 伤害是广东省居民的主要死因之一。且呈上升趋势，必须把伤害纳入疾病预防控制规划，采取有效的干预措施。     

影响重型颅脑损伤死亡率的相关因素分析(附207例报告)

目的：研究影响重型颅脑损伤的死亡率的因素。方法：对207例重型颅脑损伤患作回顾性调查分析。结果：重型颅脑损伤死亡率44．4％，年龄、GCS评分、脑疝、严重脑挫裂伤、脑肿胀、血压、血糖等因素均与死亡率相关。结论：年龄增大、GCS评分低、脑疝形成、严重脑挫裂伤、 脑肿胀、低血压、缺氧、高血糖等均显增加死亡率。     

Emergency Non-ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

OBJECTIVES: To investigate symptoms and early mortality (<30 days) following open surgery for emergency, symptomatic non-ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: During the period 1983-1994, 129 patients had an emergency admission, followed by surgery, for symptomatic non-ruptured AAA. Sixty-one received surgery within 24 h of admission and 68 received surgery more than 24 h after admission (median 135 h, inter-quartile range: 51-239 h). During the same period 239 patients had elective surgery for non-ruptured AAA. Early mortality (<30 days), symptoms and co-morbidities were recorded. Data were retrieved from the patient records. RESULTS: Mortality (30 days) was 18% in the 61 patients having surgery within 24 h of emergency admission for non-ruptured AAA. Mortality following either delayed surgery (semi-elective) after emergency admission or elective surgery was 4.2% (p=0.0002). Four out of 11 patients who died within 30 days following an acute operation had previously been declared unfit for elective surgery. One additional emergency patient had been found unfit for open surgery, but survived a delayed operation. CONCLUSION: The high mortality rate of patients with non-ruptured, symptomatic AAA undergoing surgery within 24 h of admission appears to be influenced by several factors, including co-morbidities and the acute operation. We propose that the 30-day mortality for non-ruptured AAA should be reported in two categories: mortality rate for elective surgery and mortality for surgery performed within 24 h of emergency admission. The term 'emergency non-ruptured' is a suitable term for the latter group.