Simultaneous versus sequential optimal design for pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models with FO and FOCE considerations

We consider nested multiple response models which are used extensively in the area of pharmacometrics. Given the conditional nature of such models, differences in predicted responses are a consequence of different assumptions about how the models interact. As such, sequential versus simultaneous and First Order (FO) versus First Order Conditional Estimation (FOCE) techniques have been explored in the literature where it was found that the sequential and FO approaches can produce biased results. It is therefore of interest to determine any design consequences between the various methods and approximations. As optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models is dependent upon initial parameter estimates and an approximation to the expected Fisher information matrix, it is necessary to incorporate any influence of nonlinearity (or parameter-effects curvature) into our exploration. Hence, sequential versus simultaneous design with FO and FOCE considerations are compared under low, typical and high degrees of nonlinearity. Additionally, predicted standard errors of parameters are also compared to empirical estimates formed via a simulation/estimation study in NONMEM. Initially, design theory for nested multiple response models is developed and approaches mentioned above are investigated by considering a pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic model found in the literature. We consider design for situations where all responses are continuous and extend this methodology to the case where a response may be a discrete random variable. In particular, for a binary response pharmacodynamic model, it is conjectured that such responses will offer little information about all parameters and hence a sequential optimization, in the form of product design optimality, may yield near optimal designs.     

Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed effects multiple response models: Evaluation of the appropriateness of the first order linearization using a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model

We focus on the Fisher information matrix used for design evaluation and optimization in nonlinear mixed effects multiple response models. We evaluate the appropriateness of its expression computed by linearization as proposed for a single response model. Using a pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) example, we first compare the computation of the Fisher information matrix with approximation to one derived from the observed matrix on a large simulation using the stochastic approximation expectation–maximization algorithm (SAEM). The expression of the Fisher information matrix for multiple responses is also evaluated by comparison with the empirical information obtained through a replicated simulation study using the first‐order linearization estimation methods implemented in the NONMEM software (first‐order (FO), first‐order conditional estimate (FOCE)) and the SAEM algorithm in the MONOLIX software. The predicted errors given by the approximated information matrix are close to those given by the information matrix obtained without linearization using SAEM and to the empirical ones obtained with FOCE and SAEM. The simulation study also illustrates the accuracy of both FOCE and SAEM estimation algorithms when jointly modelling multiple responses and the major limitations of the FO method. This study highlights the appropriateness of the approximated Fisher information matrix for multiple responses, which is implemented in PFIM 3.0, an extension of the R function PFIM dedicated to design evaluation and optimization. It also emphasizes the use of this computing tool for designing population multiple response studies, as for instance in PKPD studies or in PK studies including the modelling of the PK of a drug and its active metabolite. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Learning to Observe Relationships and Coping

Milieu relationships provide the critical background presence to staff's attempts to motivate, regulate, and teach patients how to cope with stress. Forging a connection with hospitalized children and adolescents demands attention to how they respond to adults and engage with staff around milieu expectations. Assessment guides that deal with these issues are presented. Important aspects of children's relatedness are presented in the context of their working models of adults and the influence of these representations on their response to staff. Coping skills are explained with particular emphasis on behavioral coping strategies. Tied to the assessment process are interventions that emphasize staff's role in helping patients manage strong affects and avoid the use of nonproductive behavior regulation strategies.     

How many subjects are needed in a longitudinal birth cohort study?

One of the first decisions that needs to be taken when planning a birth cohort concerns the size of the study. This in turn will depend on the research questions to be answered and thence whether environmental exposures and outcomes are measured on a continuum or as dichotomous variables. Here we describe ways in which different birth cohorts have addressed this issue and explore the advantages of smaller detailed studies over larger less-detailed studies.     

End-of-life Models and Emergency Department Care

Many people die in emergency departments (EDs) across the United States from sudden illnesses or injuries, an exacerbation of a chronic disease, or a terminal illness. Frequently, patients and families come to the ED seeking lifesaving or life-prolonging treatment. In addition, the ED is a place of transition-patients usually are transferred to an inpatient unit, transferred to another hospital, or discharged home. Rarely are patients supposed to remain in the ED. Currently, there is an increasing amount of literature related to end-of-life care. However, these end-of-life care models are based on chronic disease trajectories and have difficulty accommodating sudden-death trajectories common in the ED. There is very little information about end-of-life care in the ED. This article explores ED culture and characteristics, and examines the applicability of current end-of-life care models.     

小鼠吗啡依赖纳洛酮催促戒断跳跃反应模型的建立

目的建立稳定的小鼠吗啡依赖纳洛酮催促戒断跳跃反应模型。方法小鼠连续皮下注射吗啡,以纳洛酮催促戒断跳跃反应为指标,调整吗啡给予天数(5,6,7,10d)、吗啡累积剂量(360,560,640,945,1100,1105,1200mg/kg)、每日给予吗啡的频数[一天二次(bid),一天三次(tid)]、纳洛酮催促紧前给予吗啡与否、以及纳洛酮剂量(10,20mg/kg),建立四个造模方案包括八个子方案。结果方案A、B2、C2吗啡组小鼠跳跃反应率未达100%;方案B1、C1、D2、D3、D4吗啡组小鼠跳跃次数变异系数较大。方案D1采用小鼠连续皮下注射倍增剂量的吗啡,tid×6d,每日每次剂量分别为5,10,20,40,80,160mg/kg;第7天皮下注射吗啡160mg/kg,3h后腹腔注射纳洛酮10mg/kg,吗啡组小鼠可产生显著的跳跃反应,与对照组比较差异有显著性(P<0.01),且变异系数小(CV为0.22),该方案吗啡依赖小鼠跳跃反应次数适度,离散度小。结论选用方案D1可建立稳定的小鼠戒断跳跃反应模型。     

实验性大鼠液压分级颅脑损伤模型的建立与研究

用自制液压冲击颅脑损伤仪对大鼠的头部由轻到重的４种冲击力产生４级脑损伤。１级可以无明显病理生理变化；２～４级则随冲击力的加重病理生理变化亦加重。这些变化包括心率，呼吸，血压，颅内压，脑水份含量与伊文思蓝蓝染范围测定以及病理学的变化。     

A preliminary statistical model for identifying repeaters of parasuicide

This paper presents a statistical model constructed using logisticregression to identify those at high-risk of repeating parasuicide. Thesubjects in the study are Cork city residents who exhibited parasuicidalbehaviour between 1 January and 30 June 1995. Repetition of the behaviourwithin six months of the index episode distinguishes repeaters fromnon-repeaters. The model was designed so that it could be used bynon-clinicians and hence does not require information relating topsychiatric diagnosis or use of psychiatric services. The proportion ofsubjects correctly classified remained stable across a range of cut-pointprobabilities (mean = 86%, range: 83.9–87.5%). Using acut-point of 0.2, 96% of repeaters and 81% of non-repeaters were correctly classified. Using 0.45 led to the correct identification of81% of repeaters and 90% of non-repeaters. If these highlevels of sensitivity and specificity are maintained in validation tests onfuture cohorts in Cork city then the model could form the basis of anintervention programme designed to prevent the repetition of parasuicide.     

Using a supervisory framework to support and evaluate a multiproject practice development programme

? The paper describes a multiproject practice development programme undertaken over a period of 1 year. ? The background and development of the programme are outlined, whilst attention is paid to the innovatory nature of the work, particularly the use of inductive, deductive and integrated approaches to both change implementation and project supervision. ? The programme was monitored throughout using different data sources and the paper uses evaluative material retrospectively to provide answers to organizational and professional difficulties which arose during the course of the programme. ? The authors conclude that the use of combinations of different models for practice development has potential, but requires careful supervision. ? They also recommend that those involved in practice development are made fully aware of its local or micropolitics, and develop strategies to deal with change before it occurs, not after it has taken place.