The influence of environmental and health indicators on premature mortality: An empirical analysis of the City of Toronto's 140 neighborhoods

The objective of this paper was to assess the link between premature mortality and a combination of neighbourhood contextual (environmental and health) and compositional (socioeconomic and demographic) characteristics. We statistically and spatially examined six environmental variables (ultrafine particles, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic pollutants, pollution released to air, tree cover, and walkability index), six health service indicators (number health providers, breast, colorectal and cervical cancer screening uptake rates, student nutrition program uptake rates, and healthy food index), and eight socioeconomic indicators (total income, Gini coefficient, two age categories – below and above 40 years, proportion of females to males, visible minorities, Indigenous peoples, education, less than grade 9) among 140 neighbourhoods of the City of Toronto in Ontario (Canada). We applied principal component analysis to identify patterns and to reduce the number of explanatory variables into combined component axes that represent unique variation in these confounded and overlapping factors. We then applied regression analysis to model the relationship between the indices of enviro-health and socioeconomics and their potential relationship with premature mortality. Residual spatial analysis was used to investigate any remaining spatial structure (such as neighbourhoods with higher residual premature mortality rates). Neighbourhood Equity Index was correlated with our enviro-health and socioeconomic indices. Premature mortality within neighbourhoods was predicted by poor cancer screenings, pollution, lack of tree canopy, increased uptake of student nutrition programs and high walkability index. A negative association between premature mortality and pollution was associated low walkability index and presence of visible minorities within neighbourhoods. There was some unexplained residual spatial variation in our model of premature mortality - especially along the shores of Lake Ontario and in neighbourhoods with major highways or road corridors: premature mortality in Toronto neighbourhoods was higher than expected along highway-corridor neighbourhoods and shorelines. Our analysis revealed a significant relationship between neighbourhood contextual features – both environmental and health – and premature mortality, suggesting that these contextual components of neighbourhoods can predict rates of urban premature mortality in Toronto.