Protocolo del Estudio Poblacional Multinivel de las Desigualdades Socioeconómicas en la Distribución Geográfica de la Incidencia,la Mortalidad y la Supervivencia Neta del Cáncer en España: Estudio DESOCANES

Incidence and mortality provide information on the burden of cancer morbidity and the potential years of life lost due to cancer. The Spanish Deprivation Index (SDI) has been developed as a standardized measure to study socioeconomic deprivation in Spain at the census tract level. In addition, SDI information can be combined with ecological variables at the population level and data from the High-Resolution European Studies in Cancer. The aim of this study is to characterize socioeconomic inequalities in incidence, excess mortality, premature mortality and net survival for three of the most incident cancers (lung, colon-rectum and breast) in Spain using the SDI. This national population-based study will assess the impact of socioeconomic inequalities using a multilevel modelling approach. Spatial analysis, multilevel modeling, net survival and economic impact assessment will be used. The results will be useful for supporting decision-making, planning, and management of public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of socioeconomic inequalities in the diagnosis and prognosis of cancer patients in Spain.     

Estimating the number of averted illnesses and deaths as a result of vaccination against an influenza pandemic in nine low- and middle-income countries

BackgroundDuring the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, 77 countries received donated monovalent A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine through the WHO Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Vaccine Deployment Initiative. However, 47% did not receive their first shipment until after the first wave of virus circulation, and 8% did not receive their first shipment until after the WHO declared the end of the pandemic. Arguably, these shipments were too late into the pandemic to have a substantial effect on virus transmission or disease burden during the first waves of the pandemic.ObjectivesIn order to evaluate the potential benefits of earlier vaccine availability, we estimated the number of illnesses and deaths that could be averted during a 2009-like influenza pandemic under five different vaccine-availability timing scenarios.MethodsWe adapted a model originally developed to estimate annual influenza morbidity and mortality burden averted through US seasonal vaccination and ran it for five vaccine availability timing scenarios in nine low- and middle-income countries that received donated vaccine.ResultsAmong nine study countries, we estimated that the number of averted cases was 61–216,197 for actual vaccine receipt, increasing to 2,914–283,916 had vaccine been available simultaneously with the United States.ConclusionsEarlier delivery of vaccines can reduce influenza case counts during a simulated 2009-like pandemic in some low- and middle-income countries. For others, increasing the number of cases and deaths prevented through vaccination may be dependent on factors other than timely initiation of vaccine administration, such as distribution and administration capacity.     

Clinical prediction models to predict the risk of multiple binary outcomes: a comparison of approaches

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) can predict clinically relevant outcomes or events. Typically, prognostic CPMs are derived to predict the risk of a single future outcome. However, there are many medical applications where two or more outcomes are of interest, meaning this should be more widely reflected in CPMs so they can accurately estimate the joint risk of multiple outcomes simultaneously. A potentially naïve approach to multi‐outcome risk prediction is to derive a CPM for each outcome separately, then multiply the predicted risks. This approach is only valid if the outcomes are conditionally independent given the covariates, and it fails to exploit the potential relationships between the outcomes. This paper outlines several approaches that could be used to develop CPMs for multiple binary outcomes. We consider four methods, ranging in complexity and conditional independence assumptions: namely, probabilistic classifier chain, multinomial logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and a Bayesian probit model. These are compared with methods that rely on conditional independence: separate univariate CPMs and stacked regression. Employing a simulation study and real‐world example, we illustrate that CPMs for joint risk prediction of multiple outcomes should only be derived using methods that model the residual correlation between outcomes. In such a situation, our results suggest that probabilistic classification chains, multinomial logistic regression or the Bayesian probit model are all appropriate choices. We call into question the development of CPMs for each outcome in isolation when multiple correlated or structurally related outcomes are of interest and recommend more multivariate approaches to risk prediction.     

Modeling Deformation-Induced Fluid Flow in Cortical Bone’s Canalicular–Lacunar System

To explore the potential role that load-induced fluid flow plays as a mechano–transduction mechanism in bone adaptation, a lacunar–canalicular scale bone poroelasticity model is developed and implemented. The model uses micromechanics to homogenize the pericanalicular bone matrix, a system of straight circular cylinders in the bone matrix through which bone fluids can flow, as a locally anisotropic poroelastic medium. In this work, a simplified two-dimensional model of a periodic array of lacunae and their surrounding systems of canaliculi is used to quantify local fluid flow characteristics in the vicinity of a single lacuna. When the cortical bone model is loaded, microscale stress, and strain concentrations occur in the vicinity of individual lacunae and give rise to microscale spatial variations in the pore fluid pressure field. Furthermore, loading of the bone matrix containing canaliculi generates fluid pressures in the contained fluids. Consequently, loading of cortical bone induces fluid flow in the canaliculi and exchange of fluid between canaliculi and lacunae. For realistic bone morphology parameters, and a range of loading frequencies, fluid pressures and fluid–solid drag forces in the canalicular bone are computed and the associated energy dissipation in the models compared to that measured in physical in vitro experiments on human cortical bone. The proposed model indicates that deformation-induced fluid pressures in the lacunar–canalicular system have relaxation times on the order of milliseconds as opposed to the much shorter times (hundredths of milliseconds) associated with deformation-induced pressures in the Haversian system.     

An image-based modeling framework for patient-specific computational hemodynamics

We present a modeling framework designed for patient-specific computational hemodynamics to be performed in the context of large-scale studies. The framework takes advantage of the integration of image processing, geometric analysis and mesh generation techniques, with an accent on full automation and high-level interaction. Image segmentation is performed using implicit deformable models taking advantage of a novel approach for selective initialization of vascular branches, as well as of a strategy for the segmentation of small vessels. A robust definition of centerlines provides objective geometric criteria for the automation of surface editing and mesh generation. The framework is available as part of an open-source effort, the Vascular Modeling Toolkit, a first step towards the sharing of tools and data which will be necessary for computational hemodynamics to play a role in evidence-based medicine.     

焦化塔双线性建模及变结构控制

给出了基于综合优化方法的双线性系统建模和变结构控制设计方法,并将此用于延迟焦化装置,建立了焦化塔双线性模型和变结构控制器,转好地解决了抖振问题,仿真结果表明这一方法是有效的。     

图形设计中的写意造型

中国画的写意造型 ,展示的是似与不似之间、寓意于象、以象尽意“心物统一”的意象。在图形设计中采用写意造型方法 ,能使设计意念的表达更显符号化与象征性 ,同时也丰富观者感受层面与审美经验。     

tRNA~(His/GUG)识别特性的分子力学模拟(英文)

本文选用经过实验验证的碱基序列 ,用简化的方式 ,构建了被水分子和镁离子修饰的核酸序列的分子模型 ,应用分子力学模拟方法对序列进行能量优化 ,对优化后序列的构象参数、成键状况和能量数据等进行了分析。对tRNAHHis GUG的识别特性作了初步的探索 ,得到了和实验结果相近的结论。此外 ,还从能力学的角度讨论了溶剂 -溶质 -溶剂相互作用形成的网状氢键网络对核酸结构稳定性的影响 ,探讨了非Crick_WatsonGU、UU配对的能力学特征并存在于被水分子和镁离子修饰的核酸序列中的GU、UU配对情况。     

Inactivation of DRG1, encoding a translation factor GTPase,causes a recessive neurodevelopmental disorder

PurposeDevelopmentally regulated Guanosine-5'-triphosphate-binding protein 1 (DRG1) is a highly conserved member of a class of GTPases implicated in translation. Although the expression of mammalian DRG1 is elevated in the central nervous system during development, and its function has been implicated in fundamental cellular processes, no pathogenic germline variants have yet been identified. Here, we characterize the clinical and biochemical consequences of DRG1 variants.MethodsWe collate clinical information of 4 individuals with germline DRG1 variants and use in silico, in vitro, and cell-based studies to study the pathogenicity of these alleles.ResultsWe identified private germline DRG1 variants, including 3 stop-gained p.Gly54¹, p.Arg140¹, p.Lys263¹, and a p.Asn248Phe missense variant. These alleles are recessively inherited in 4 affected individuals from 3 distinct families and cause a neurodevelopmental disorder with global developmental delay, primary microcephaly, short stature, and craniofacial anomalies. We show that these loss-of-function variants (1) severely disrupt DRG1 messenger RNA/protein stability in patient-derived fibroblasts, (2) impair its GTPase activity, and (3) compromise its binding to partner protein ZC3H15. Consistent with the importance of DRG1 in humans, targeted inactivation of mouse Drg1 resulted in preweaning lethality.ConclusionOur work defines a new Mendelian disorder of DRG1 deficiency. This study highlights DRG1’s importance for normal mammalian development and underscores the significance of translation factor GTPases in human physiology and homeostasis.     

Finite Element Model Determination of Correction Factors Used for Measurement of Aortic Diameter via Conductance

Traditional methods for estimating the slope and offset volume V _P for determining real-time chamber volume by the conductance catheter technique are not suited to measurements made in the aorta due to the relatively low resistivity of the aortic wall. We developed three distinct three-dimensional finite element models of the conductance catheter and surrounding tissues in order to predict and V _P and to examine the nature of the electric field near the aortic wall. A heterogeneous isotropic model of the catheter, aorta and surrounding tissues accurately predicted the values of and V _P . A homogeneous anisotropic model was developed to examine the effects of anisotropy of blood and the layers of the aortic wall on measured values of resistance, and V _P . This model demonstrated that anisotropy of blood and aortic wall tissue can increase the values of both and V _P . Finally, a three-dimensional homogeneous isotropic rectangular model allowed examination of the effects of catheter position. This model showed small effects of catheter position on measured resistance (9.7% increase) and larger effects on (21.2% decrease) and V _P (41.9% increase). We conclude the following: the FEA models may lead to accurate estimate values of and V _P in vivo. The unique anisotropic conductive properties of the layers of the aortic wall contribute to the high observed values of and V _P in the aorta. Finally, catheter position has a proportionately greater effect on and V _P than on measured resistance. The results of this study should assist in the determination of aortic mechanical properties using conductance catheter measurements of vessel dimension. © 1999 Biomedical Engineering Society. PAC99: 8719Nn, 8719Rr, 8719Uv, 0270Dh, 8717Aa