基于美国国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学、结果数据库食管癌病人预后影响因素分析

目的剖析影响食管癌病人生存的临床参数,构建列线图以预测食管癌病人的 1年、 3年及 5年生存率。方法利用美国国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学、结果数据库( National Cancer Institute,The Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program,SEER),共获 2010年 1月至 2015年 12月 8 863例食管癌病人的年龄、病理等临床资料和相关随访数据。按随机数字表法分为验证组( 2 656例)和列线图建模组( 6 207例)(分配比例是 3∶7)。建模组用 Kaplan-Meier进行单因素生存分析,用 log-rank检验法评估生存率的差异;将在单因素分析中差异有统计学意义的变量纳入多因素 Cox比例风险模型,寻找建模组病人预后独立影响因素,将确定因素纳入并构建列线图,预测食管癌病人 1年、 3年及 5年生存率。通过一致性指数( C-index)和校正曲线评估其预测的准确性和判别能力。结果食管癌病人的年龄、性别、种族、组织分级、美国癌症联合协会( AJCC)第 7版 T分期、 N分期、 M分期、手术、化疗均是其预后独立影响因素( P<0.05)将以上因素纳入并构建列线图。 C-index:建模组内部验证为 0.726(95%CI:0.718~0.734),验证组外部验证为 0.723(95%CI:0.71,1~0.735);同时两组的校正曲线一致性良好。结论分析     

内镜逆行胰胆管造影术后急性胆管炎的危险因素研究及其列线图的构建

目的探讨内镜逆行胰胆管造影术(endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, ERCP)后急性胆管炎的危险因素及其列线图的构建。方法回顾性分析2014年1月—2019年12月在兰州大学第一医院因胆总管结石接受ERCP的患者临床资料, 纳入术后发生急性胆管炎的患者95例(胆管炎组), 以1∶3比例通过软件随机抽样选择术后未发生急性胆管炎的患者285例(无胆管炎组)。采用Logistic回归模型分析影响ERCP术后急性胆管炎的独立危险因素, 根据多因素分析结果, 建立预测ERCP术后急性胆管炎发生率的列线图模型。结果单因素比较发现 ERCP术后发生胆管炎患者和未发生胆管炎患者在年龄、合并糖尿病、丙氨酸转氨酶、碱性磷酸酶、葡萄糖、胆囊壁粗糙、胆管直径、胆管下端狭窄、行经内镜胆道内支架放置术比例、行经内镜鼻胆管引流术比例方面差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic多因素回归分析显示, 高龄(OR=1.108, 95%CI:1.079～1.138, P<0.001)、合并糖尿病(OR=4.524, 95%CI:1.299～1...     

The Value of Radiotherapy in Patients With Resectable Stage IIIA Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer in the Era of Individualized Treatment: A Population-Based Analysis

IntroductionNo consensus has been achieved on the benefit of radiotherapy for resected stage IIIA NSCLC patients. The division of stage IIIA has changed significantly in 2017. This study aims to explore the effects of radiotherapy on the survival of patients with resectable stage IIIA NSCLC in the new era.Patients and MethodsPatients diagnosed with NSCLC between 2010 and 2018 were identified in the 8th edition TNM classification from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A nomogram was developed by integrating all independent predictors for lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS). The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and subgroup analysis were applied to mitigate potential bias. Survival analyses were conducted using the Kaplan Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsA total of 2632 stage IIIA NSCLC patients were enrolled. The C-index of the nomogram for the prediction of LCSS was 0.636 (95% CI, 0.616-0.656). In the group of patients with N2 stage who featured more than 5 positive regional lymph nodes, compared with non-PORT, PORT did prolong postoperative survival time (50 vs. 31 months; P= .005). N2 patients with visceral pleural invasion (VPI), older (age >65), or had a larger tumor (size >3 cm) could also benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy.ConclusionTreatment protocol for stage IIIA NSCLC patients should be individualized. Based on our findings, N2 patients with more than 5 positive regional lymph nodes, VPI, larger tumor size (greater than 3 cm), and older (age above 65) could benefit from adjuvant radiotherapy. Further well-designed randomized trials are warranted.     

Improvement of blood loss volume estimation by paramedics using a pictorial nomogram: A developmental study

IntroductionTo propose and evaluate a nomogram to assist paramedics to visually estimate the external blood loss on a non-absorbent surface and to identify whether the nomogram improves visual estimation.MethodsThe study was a prospective, paired-control design (pre-training control group & post-training group), utilizing Emergency Medical Assistant (EMA) I and II trainees from the Hong Kong Fire Services Ambulance Command Training School. A nomogram (blood loss volume to area on a non-absorbent surface) was prepared to aid blood loss estimation. All participants estimated four scenarios of blood pools twice (A: 180 mL; B: 470 mL; C: 940 mL; D: 1550 mL) before and after using the nomogram. Every participant received two-minute training on how to use the nomogram correctly. The difference between the estimations and the actual volume in each scenario was calculated. The absolute percentage errors were used for direct comparison and identification of improvement between visual estimation and the use of the nomogram.ResultsSixty-one participants with an average of 3-year paramedic field experience were recruited by convenience sampling. In combining all scenarios, the median of absolute percentage error of 61 participants was 43% (95%CI 38.0–50.9%) in visual estimation, while it was 23% (95%CI 17.4–27.0%) when using the nomogram. There was a significant reduction in absolute percentage error between visual estimation and the use of the nomogram (p < 0.0001).ConclusionThe nomogram significantly improved the estimation of external blood loss volume.     

Renal cell carcinoma: A nomogram for the CT imaging-inclusive prediction of indolent,non-clear cell renal cortical tumours

AimTo develop a nomogram from clinical and computed tomography (CT) data for pre-treatment identification of indolent renal cortical tumours.Patients and methodsA total of 1201 consecutive patients underwent dedicated contrast-enhanced CT prior to nephrectomy for a renal cortical tumour between January 2000 and July 2011. Two radiologists evaluated all tumours on CT for size, necrosis, calcification, contour, renal vein invasion, collecting system invasion, contact with renal sinus fat, multicystic tumour architecture, nodular enhancement, and the degree of nephrographic phase enhancement. CT and clinical predictors (gender, body mass index [BMI], age) were incorporated into the nomogram. We employed multivariable logistic regression analysis to predict tumour type and internally validated the final model using the data from reader 1. External validation was performed by using all data from reader 2. We applied Wilcoxon rank sum test and Fisher’s exact test to investigate for differences in tumour size, BMI, age, and differences in CT imaging features between patients with aggressive and those with indolent tumours.Results63.6% (764/1201) of patients had clear-cell or other aggressive non-clear-cell RCC (i.e. papillary RCC type 2, unclassified RCC) and 36.4% (437/1201) had indolent renal cortical tumours (i.e. papillary RCC type 1, chromophobe RCC, angiomyolipoma, or oncocytoma). On CT, indolent tumours were significantly smaller (p < 0.001) than aggressive tumours and significantly associated with well-defined tumour contours (p < 0.001). Aggressive RCC were significantly associated with necrosis, calcification, renal vein invasion, collecting system invasion, contact with renal sinus fat, multicystic tumour architecture, and nodular enhancement (all, p < 0.001). The nomogram’s concordance index (C-index) was 0.823 after internal and 0.829 after external validation.Concluding statementWe present a nomogram based on 1201 patients combining CT features with clinical data for the prediction of indolent renal cortical tumours. When externally validated, this nomogram resulted in a C-index of 0.829.     

Development and Validation of an RNA Binding Protein-associated Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background and AimsThe survival rate of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is variable. The abnormal expression of RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) is closely related to the occurrence and development of malignant tumors. The primary aim of this study was to identify RBPs related to the prognosis of liver cancer and to construct a prognostic model of liver cancer.MethodsWe downloaded the hepatocellular carcinoma gene sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (cancergenome.nih.gov/) database, constructed a protein-protein interaction network, and used Cytoscape to realize the visualization. From among 325 abnormally expressed genes for RBPs, 9 (XPO5, enhancer of zeste 2 polycomb repressive complex 2 subunit [EZH2], CSTF2, BRCA1, RRP12, MRPL54, EIF2AK4, PPARGC1A, and SEPSECS) were selected for construction of the prognostic model. Then, we further verified the results through the Gene Expression Omnibus (www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/) database and in vitro experiments.ResultsA prognostic model was constructed, which determined that the survival time of patients in the high-risk group was significantly shorter than that of the low-risk group (p<0.01). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that the risk score was an independent prognostic factor (p<0.01). We also constructed a nomogram based on the risk score, survival time, and survival status. At the same time, we verified the high expression and cancer-promoting effects of EZH2 in tumors.ConclusionsSurvival, receiver operating characteristic curve and independent prognostic analyses demonstrated that we constructed a good prognostic model, which might be useful for estimating the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.     

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China

Background and AimsTimely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.MethodsThe nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602–0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.     

脊柱结核病灶清除植骨融合内固定术后住院时间延长的危险因素及预测模型

【摘要】 目的：分析脊柱结核患者行病灶清除植骨融合内固定术后住院时间（length of stay,LOS）延长的危险因素,建立预测模型并进行验证。方法：回顾性分析2016年2月~2020年12月在西安交通大学附属红会医院行病灶清除植骨融合内固定术的152例脊柱结核患者的临床资料,根据患者术后LOS是否超过整体研究队列第75%分位的术后LOS分为LOS延长组（PLOS组）和LOS正常组（NLOS组）。对两组患者的性别、年龄、高血压、糖尿病、截瘫、抗凝史、结核耐药、术前抗结核时间、输血、手术部位、手术入路、融合椎体数目、手术时间、术中出血量（intraoperative blood loss,IBL）、术后并发症、输血费用、住院费用、C反应蛋白（C-reactive protein,CRP）、血沉（erythrocyte sedimentation rate,ESR）、白蛋白（albumin,ALB）、血常规、凝血功能等进行单因素分析。根据套索（Lasso）回归,选择与脊柱结核术后LOS延长显著相关的危险因素;随后将筛选出来的危险因素纳入多因素Logistic回归分析,最终依据多因素Logistic回归分析结果建立预测模型,并通过绘制列线图对模型进行可视化,以此来预测脊柱结核术后LOS延长的风险概率。使用自举法（Bootstrap）进行模型内部验证,绘制受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic,ROC）曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线分析（decision curve analysis,DCA）验证该模型的区分度、准确度以及临床适用性。结果：纳入研究的152例患者中位LOS为10d,75%LOS为14d,PLOS组96例,NLOS组56例。单因素分析显示,两组患者的年龄、高血压、糖尿病、抗凝史、结核耐药、术前抗结核时间、手术部位、手术入路、手术时间、IBL、术后并发症、CRP、ESR、术前ALB、血常规、凝血功能等均无统计学差异（P>0.05）,两组患者的性别、截瘫、输血、融合椎体数目、输血费用、住院费用差异有统计学差异（P<0.05）。将患者手术时间、IBL、术前Hb、术前ALB,按ROC的约登指数为分割点,手术时间临界值为198（min）、IBL临界值为1000（mL）、术前Hb临界值为118（g/L）、术前ALB 临界值为38.8（g/L）。筛选出与脊柱结核术后LOS延长密切相关的危险因素为女性、输血、融合椎体数目≥3、手术时间≥198min和IBL≥1000mL、术前Hb＜118g/L和术前ALB＜38.8g/L。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,女性、融合椎体数目≥3、手术时间≥198min和IBL≥1000ml是脊柱结核患者术后LOS延长的危险因素（P<0.05）。构建Logistic回归的可视化列线图模型,列线图中的预测因子包括女性、融合椎体数目、手术时间和IBL。进行1000次Bootstrap自助抽样以完成模型内部验证,C指数值为0.882,ROC曲线下面积（area under curve,AUC）为0.884（95%CI：0.782～0.985）。校准曲线显示模型的表观曲线与偏差校正后的曲线拟合良好。DCA曲线显示在0.2～0.9的阈值区间具有最大临床效益。结论：女性、融合椎体数目≥3、手术时间≥198min和IBL≥1000ml是脊柱结核患者行后路病灶清除植骨融合内固定术后LOS延长的主要危险因素,基于以上危险因素所绘制的连线图可以帮助医生做出临床决策并优化围术期管理。