Hybrid Approach to Estimation of Underreporting of Tuberculosis Case Notification in High-Burden Settings With Weak Surveillance Infrastructure: Design and Implementation of an Inventory Study

BackgroundThe greatest risk of infectious disease undernotification occurs in settings with limited capacity to detect it reliably. World Health Organization guidance on the measurement of misreporting is paradoxical, requiring robust, independent systems to assess surveillance rigor. Methods are needed to estimate undernotification in settings with incomplete, flawed, or weak surveillance systems. This study attempted to design a tuberculosis (TB) inventory study that balanced rigor with feasibility for high-need settings.ObjectiveThis study aims to design a hybrid TB inventory study for contexts without World Health Organization preconditions. We estimated the proportion of TB cases that were not reported to the Ministry of Health in 2015. The study sought to describe TB surveillance coverage and quality at different levels of TB care provision. Finally, we aimed to identify structural-, facility-, and provider-level barriers to notification and reasons for underreporting, nonreporting, and overreporting.MethodsRetrospective partial digitalization of paper-based surveillance and facility records preceded deterministic and probabilistic record linkage; a hybrid of health facilities and laboratory census with a stratified sampling of HFs with no capacity to notify leveraged a priori knowledge. Distinct extrapolation methods were applied to the sampled health facilities to estimate bacteriologically confirmed versus clinical TB. In-depth interviews and focus groups were used to identify causal factors responsible for undernotification and test the acceptability of remedies.ResultsThe hybrid approach proved viable and instructive. High-specificity verification of paper-based records in the field was efficient and had minimal errors. Limiting extrapolation to clinical cases improved precision. Probabilistic record linkage is computationally intensive, and the choice of software influences estimates. Record absence, decay, and overestimation of the private sector TB treatment behavior threaten validity, meriting mitigation. Data management demands were underestimated. Treatment success was modest in all sectors (R=37.9%–72.0%) and did not align with treatment success reported by the state (6665/8770, 75.99%). One-fifth of TB providers (36/178, 20%) were doubtful that the low volume of patients with TB treated in their facility merited mastery of the extensive TB notification forms and procedures.ConclusionsSubnational inventory studies can be rigorous, relevant, and efficient in countries that need them even in the absence of World Health Organization preconditions, if precautions are taken. The use of triangulation techniques, with minimal recourse to sampling and extrapolation, and the privileging of practical information needs of local decision makers yield reasonable misreporting estimates and viable policy recommendations.     

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications,Malawi

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.     

Fecal Excretion of Mycobacterium leprae,Burkina Faso

Mycobacterium leprae was detected by optical microscopy, fluorescent in situ hybridization, and molecular detection in feces collected for the diagnosis of Entamoeba coli enteritis in a leprosy patient in Burkina Faso. This observation raises questions about the role of fecal excretion of M. leprae in the natural history and diagnosis of leprosy.     

基于季节性ARIMA模型的新疆肺结核发病预测分析

目的 探讨季节性时间序列模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)在新疆肺结核发病预测中的应用,并验证模型的可行性和适用性。 方法 采用季节性ARIMA(p, d, q )(P, D, Q)_s拟合2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核月发病人数,建立多个季节时间序列模型并进行比较,选出最优模型对2019年9—12月肺结核发病人数进行预测。 结果 2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核累积发病人数为627 869例,年平均发病人数为3 567例。 新疆地区肺结核月发病数具有季节性,1—5月平均发病数高于平均水平,6—12月平均发病数低于平均水平,发病高峰为1月和3月,发病低谷为9月。通过赤池信息量(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)和贝叶斯信息量(Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC)最小原则得出,ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂是最优模型,其残差序列为白噪声,参数的回归系数均具有统计学意义,拟合的平均绝对百分比误差MAPE为8.723%。预测的MAPE为18.674%,真实值均处于预测值的95%置信区间内。 结论 ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂模型能够较好地拟合新疆肺结核发病数据,并进行短期预测,对新疆卫生防控措施的制定具有一定指导意义。     

Novel 6-Month Treatment for Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis,United States

The US Food and Drug Administration approved a 6-month regimen of pretomanid, bedaquiline, and linezolid for extensively drug-resistant or multidrug-intolerant tuberculosis after a trial in South Africa demonstrated 90% effectiveness 6 months posttreatment. We report on a patient who completed the regimen using a lower linezolid dose.     

Effectiveness of Preventive Therapy for Persons Exposed at Home to Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis,Karachi, Pakistan

In Karachi, Pakistan, a South Asian megacity with a high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and low HIV prevalence, we assessed the effectiveness of fluoroquinolone-based preventive therapy for drug-resistant (DR) TB exposure. During February 2016–March 2017, high-risk household contacts of DR TB patients began a 6-month course of preventive therapy with a fluoroquinolone-based, 2-drug regimen. We assessed effectiveness in this cohort by comparing the rate and risk for TB disease over 2 years to the rates and risks reported in the literature. Of 172 participants, TB occurred in 2 persons over 336 person-years of observation. TB disease incidence rate observed in the cohort was 6.0/1,000 person-years. The incidence rate ratio ranged from 0.29 (95% CI 0.04–1.3) to 0.50 (95% CI 0.06–2.8), with a pooled estimate of 0.35 (95% CI 0.14–0.87). Overall, fluoroquinolone-based preventive therapy for DR TB exposure reduced risk for TB disease by 65%.     

Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Pet Ring-Tailed Lemur,Madagascar

We diagnosed tuberculosis in an illegally wild-captured pet ring-tailed lemur manifesting lethargy, anorexia, and cervical lymphadenopathy. Whole-genome sequencing confirmed the Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolate belonged to lineage 3 and harbored streptomycin resistance. We recommend reverse zoonosis prevention and determination of whether lemurs are able to maintain M. tuberculosis infection.     

菌阴肺结核诊断方法研究

目的 :利用联合检测技术对菌阴肺结核作诊断价值的研究。方法 :痰标本采用聚合酶链反应 (PCR)TB DNA ,血清标本采用酶联免疫吸附试验 (ELISA) ,皮肤试验采用PPD 0 1U皮试 ,同步检测。结果 :单项检测的敏感性、特异性依次为 :PCR 96 8%、96 2 % ;LAMIgG 6 9 2 %、98 1% ;PPDIgG 6 2 1%、98 1% ;SCIC 32 2 %、98 1% ;PPD 0 1U 5 3 8%、98 1%。单项检测对菌阴肺结核的检出率相应为 41 7% ,2 8 9% ,44 4% ,2 8 9% ,2 1 4%。联合检测对菌阴肺结核的检出率 2、3、4、5联分别为 6 6 9%、75 0 %、80 4%及 85 7% ,均高于单项检测。联合检测特异性随联合种类增高而轻微下降。若采用联合检测同时阳性方法 ,2、3、4、5联特异性均为 10 0 % ,初治菌阴组阳性检出率 2联方法可达 45 9% ,比任何单项方法检出率要高。结论 :由于原五种方法联合检测特异性有所轻度下降 ,因此联合检测同时阳性判定的方法更适用于初治菌阴肺结核的诊断 ,值得推广     

颅内结核的MRI诊断

目的：探讨MRI对颅内结核的诊断价值。方法：回顾性地分析11例经手术或活检病理证实的颅内结核病例资料和MRI表现,其中结核性脑膜炎5例,颅内结核瘤4例,颅内结核瘤并脑膜炎2例。结果：结核性脑膜炎的MRI主要表现为脑梗塞、脑积水,脑膜及脑基底池的异常增强等。结核瘤MRI可表现为占位、脑水肿,可见钙化,在T2WI上呈低信号以及环形或结节状的异常增强为其特征表现。结论：MRI在诊断颅内结核方面有比较特征性的表现。具有重要的诊断价值。     

综合性医院肺结核误诊探讨(附100例肺结核误诊分析)

目的：提高综合性医院医师对肺结核诊断水平。方法：分析院内外100例肺结核误诊的临床资料。结果：平均误诊率17．8％。结论：误诊原因有：①对肺结核的警惕性不高。②对不曲线结核临床表现缺乏认识。③部分肺结核x线表现不典型。④单凭x线报告做出诊断。⑤不重视痰找抗酸杆菌。减少误诊措施有：①对结核病应有高度警惕性。②提高临床医师对不典型肺结核临床表现认识。③增强对肺结核不典型胸部x线表现的认识。④重视临床治疗后胸片复查。⑤重视痰查结核菌。⑥纤支镜检查可提高痰菌阴性肺结核诊断率。⑦重视病理诊断和临床治疗性诊断。