Can Machine Learning Methods Produce Accurate and Easy-to-Use Preoperative Prediction Models of One-Year Improvements in Pain and Functioning After Knee Arthroplasty?

BackgroundApproximately 15%-20% of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients do not experience clinically meaningful improvements. We sought to compare the accuracy and parsimony of several machine learning strategies for developing predictive models of failing to experience minimal clinically important differences in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) 1 year after TKA.MethodsPatients (N = 587) in 3 large Veteran Health Administration facilities completed PROMs before and 1 year after TKA (92% follow-up). Preoperative PROMs and electronic health record data were used to develop and validate models to predict failing to experience at least a minimal clinically important difference in Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Total, KOOS JR, and KOOS subscales (Pain, Symptoms, Activities of Daily Living, Quality of Life, and recreation). Several machine learning strategies were used for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation and bootstrapping were used to produce measures of overall accuracy (C-statistic, Brier Score). The sensitivity and specificity of various predicted probability cut-points were examined.ResultsThe most accurate models produced were for the Activities of Daily Living, Pain, Symptoms, and Quality of Life subscales of the KOOS (C-statistics 0.76, 0.72, 0.72, and 0.71, respectively). Strategies varied substantially in terms of the numbers of inputs required to achieve similar accuracy, with none being superior for all outcomes.ConclusionModels produced in this project provide estimates of patient-specific improvements in major outcomes 1 year after TKA. Integrating these models into clinical decision support, informed consent and shared decision making could improve patient selection, education, and satisfaction.Level of EvidenceLevel III, diagnostic study.     

Diagnostic Utility of Platelet Count/Lymphocyte Count Ratio and Platelet Count/Mean Platelet Volume Ratio in Periprosthetic Joint Infection Following Total Knee Arthroplasty

BackgroundDiagnosing a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) can be challenging and often requires a combination of clinical and laboratory findings. Monocyte/lymphocyte ratio, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and platelet/mean platelet volume ratio (PVR) are simple predictors for inflammation that can be readily obtained from complete blood count. The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic utility of these markers in predicting PJI in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients.MethodsA total of 538 patients who underwent revision TKA with calculable marker ratios prerevision in 2 groups were evaluated: (1) 206 patients with a preoperative diagnosis of PJI (group I) and (2) 332 patients treated for revision TKA for aseptic failures (group II). The diagnostic abilities of the markers were assessed via receiver operator characteristic curve analysis.ResultsThe optimal threshold of PVR at 30.82 had the highest sensitivity of 87.7%, while the optimal threshold of PLR at 234.13 had the highest specificity of 82.5%. Both PLR and PVR, when combined with Musculoskeletal Infection Society thresholds for erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, synovial WBC, and PMN%, achieve significantly higher sensitivity and specificity rates for PJI at or above 97% (PLR: 99.03%; 98.80%; PVR: 98.54%;97.89%).ConclusionOur study demonstrates that PVR and PLR, which are readily available and inexpensive to obtain from complete blood counts, when combined with serum and synovial fluid markers have increased sensitivity and specificity comparable to that of alpha defensin. This suggests that PVR and PLR can be used together with other hematologic and aspirate markers to increase the accuracy of PJI diagnosis in TKA patients.     

Impact of Compensated Cirrhosis Etiology on Postoperative Outcomes Following Total Knee Arthroplasty

BackgroundCirrhotics often demonstrate worse outcomes than their non-cirrhotic counterparts following orthopedic surgery; however, there are limited arthroplasty-focused data on this occurrence. Additionally, variances in postoperative outcomes among the different etiologies of cirrhosis have not been well described. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect compensated cirrhosis had on postoperative outcomes following elective total knee arthroplasty (TKA).MethodsIn total, 1,734,568 patients who underwent primary TKA from 2006 to 2013 were identified using the Medicare Claims Database. Patients were divided into those with a history of compensated cirrhosis and those with no history of liver disease. Subgroup analysis was performed based on the etiology of cirrhosis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate postsurgical outcomes of interest.ResultsCirrhotic patients had higher risk of developing disseminated intravascular coagulation (odds ratio [OR] 2.76, P = .003), encephalopathy (OR 3.00, P < .001), and periprosthetic infection (OR 1.79, P < .001) compared to controls. Following subgroup analysis, alcoholic cirrhotics had high risk of periprosthetic infection (OR 2.12, P < .001), fracture (OR 3.28, P < .001), transfusion (OR 2.45, P < .001), and encephalopathy (OR 7.34, P < .001) compared to controls. Viral cirrhosis was associated with an increase in 90-day charges ($14,941, P < .001) compared to controls, while cirrhosis secondary to other causes was associated with few adverse outcomes compared to controls.ConclusionLiver cirrhosis is an independent risk factor for increased perioperative morbidity and financial burden following TKA. Cirrhosis due to etiologies other than viral infections and alcoholism are associated with few adverse outcomes. Surgeons should be aware of these complications to properly optimize postoperative management.     

Biomechanical evaluation of total ankle arthroplasty. Part II: Influence of loading and fixation design on tibial bone–implant interaction

Finite element (FE) models to evaluate the burden placed on the interaction between total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) implants and the bone often rely on peak axial forces. However, the loading environment of the ankle is complex, and it is unclear whether peak axial forces represent a challenging scenario for the interaction between the implant and the bone. Our goal was to determine how the loads and the design of the fixation of the tibial component of TAA impact the interaction between the implant and the bone. To this end, we developed a framework that integrated robotic cadaveric simulations to determine the ankle kinematics, musculoskeletal models to determine the ankle joint loads, and FE models to evaluate the interaction between TAA and the bone. We compared the bone–implant micromotion and the risk of bone failure of three common fixation designs for the tibial component of TAA: spikes, a stem, and a keel. We found that the most critical conditions for the interaction between the implant and the bone were dependent on the specimen and the fixation design, but always involved submaximal forces and large moments. We also found that while the fixation design influenced the distribution and the peak value of bone–implant micromotion, the amount of bone at risk of failure was specimen dependent. To account for the most critical conditions for the interaction between the implant and the bone, our results support simulating multiple specimens under complex loading profiles that include multiaxial moments and span entire activity cycles.     

Bibliometric Analysis of the Top-Cited Articles on Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty

BackgroundUnicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) has been proven to be an effective surgical technique for unilateral compartment osteoarthritis. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the top 100 cited articles in the field of UKA research.MethodsPublications on UKA from 1980 to 2020 in the Web of Science database were retrieved. The characteristics of the top 100 cited articles were analyzed, including information of publications and citations, level of evidence, and research interests.ResultsThe number of publications and citations increased over time. The majority of the highly cited articles were from the Nuffield Orthopedic Centre (Oxford, England) and the Brigham and Women’s Hospital (Boston, USA). Long-term outcome of UKA and comparison between UKA and TKA gathered most research interests. The most frequently occurring keywords were “survival” and “revision.” Since 2012, “life quality” and “robotics” have been used. There was no level I evidence, and most studies provided level IV evidence.ConclusionThere was a rising trend in publications and citations in the field of UKA research, the majority of them were from a few centers, and were low-level evidence. Most studies focused on the long-term outcomes of UKA; in recent years, patient satisfaction and navigation surgery have become new research trends.     

Closed Incision Negative Pressure Wound Therapy for Elective Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

BackgroundPersistent wound drainage after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) increases the risk of surgical site infections (SSIs). Closed incision negative pressure wound therapy (ciNPWT) decreases infections in traumatic wounds, but evidence for its use after elective TJA is limited. The purpose of this meta-analysis of level I studies is to determine the effect of ciNPWT on risk of SSI and wound complications following TJA.MethodsMEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library were searched for randomized controlled trials comparing ciNPWT vs standard dressings after total hip (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Studies exclusively involving THA for femoral neck fractures were excluded. Risk of SSI and noninfectious wound complications (blisters, seroma, hematoma, persistent drainage, dehiscence, and wound edge necrosis) following TJA were analyzed.ResultsSSI risk was lower with ciNPWT compared to standard dressings (3.4% vs 7%; relative risk [RR] 0.48, P = .007), specifically in revision THA and TKA (4.1% vs 10.5%; RR 0.41, P = .03). ciNPWT increased the noninfectious complication risk after primary TKA (RR 4.71, P < .0001), especially causing wound blistering (RR 12.66, P < .0001). ciNPWT decreased hospital length of stay by 0.73 days (P = .04) and reoperation rate (RR 0.28, P = .01).ConclusionciNPWT decreases SSI risk compared to standard dressings after revision TJA, but not primary TJA. ciNPWT is associated with >12-fold increased risk of wound blistering after primary TKA. ciNPWT plays a role in revision TJA management, but additional randomized controlled trials with uniform wound assessment methods must be performed to sufficiently power findings and draw conclusions on the use of ciNPWT after primary TJA.     

Projected Economic Burden of Periprosthetic Joint Infection of the Hip and Knee in the United States

BackgroundIn addition to the significant morbidity and mortality associated with periprosthetic joint infection (PJI), the cost of treating PJI is substantial. Prior high-quality national estimates of the economic burden of PJI utilize data up to 2009 to project PJI growth in the United States through 2020. Now in the year 2020, it is appropriate to evaluate these past projections and incorporate the latest available data to better understand the current scale and burden of PJI in the United States.MethodsThe Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2002-2017) was used to identify rates and associated inpatient costs for primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA) and PJI-related revision TKA and THA. Poisson regression was utilized to model past growth and project future rates and cost of PJI of the hip and knee.ResultsUsing the most recent data, the combined annual hospital costs related to PJI of the hip and knee were estimated to be $1.85 billion by 2030. This includes $753.4 million for THA PJI and $1.1 billion for TKA PJI, in that year. Increases in PJI costs are mainly attributable to increases in volume. Although the growth in incidence of primary THA and TKA has slowed in recent years, the incidence of PJI and the cost per case of PJI remained relatively constant from 2002 to 2017.DiscussionUnderstanding the current and potential future financial burden of PJI for surgeons, patients, and healthcare systems is essential. There is an urgent need for efficacious preventive strategies in reducing rates of PJI after THA and TKA.     

Early and Direct Rehab Transfer Leads to Significant Cost Savings and Decreased Hospital Length of Stay for Total Joint Arthroplasty in a Veteran Population

BackgroundTotal joint arthroplasty is the most common elective orthopedic procedure in the Veterans Affairs hospital system. In 2019, physical medicine and rehabilitation began screening patients before surgery to select candidates for direct transfer to acute rehab after surgery. The primary outcome of this study was to demonstrate that the accelerated program was successful in decreasing inpatient costs and length of stay (LOS). The secondary outcome was to show that there was no increase in complication, reoperation, and readmission rates.MethodsA retrospective review of total joint arthroplasty patients was conducted with three cohorts: 1) control (n = 193), 2) transfer to rehab orders on postop day #1 (n = 178), and 3) direct transfers to rehab (n = 173). To assess for demographic disparities between cohorts, multiple analysis of variance tests followed by a Bonferroni P-value correction were used. Differences between test groups regarding primary outcomes were assessed with analysis of variance tests followed by pairwise t-tests with Bonferroni P-value corrections.ResultsThere were no significant differences between the cohort demographics or comorbidities. The mean total LOS decreased from 7.0 days in the first cohort, to 6.9 in the second, and 6.0 in the third (P = .00034). The mean decrease in cost per patient was $14,006 between cohorts 1 and 3, equating to over $5.6 million in savings annually. There was no significant change in preintervention and postintervention short-term complications (P = .295).ConclusionsSignificant cost savings and decrease in total LOS was observed. In the current health care climate focused on value-based care, a similar intervention could be applied nationwide to improve Veterans Affair services.     

Disparities Among Leading Publishers of Arthroplasty Research

BackgroundDespite the importance of diversity in advancing scientific progress, diversity among leading authors in arthroplasty has not been examined. This study aimed to identify, characterize, and assess disparities among leading authors in arthroplasty literature from 2002 to 2019.MethodsArticles published between 2002 and 2019 from 12 academic journals that publish orthopedic and arthroplasty research were extracted from PubMed. Original articles containing keywords related to arthroplasty were analyzed. Author gender was assigned using the Genderize algorithm. Gender and characterization of the top 100 male and female authors utilized available information on academic profiles.ResultsFrom the 14,692 articles that met inclusion criteria, the genders of 23,626 unique authors were identified. Women were less likely than men to publish 5 years after beginning their publishing careers (adjusted odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.57, P < .001). Of the top 100 authors, 96 were men, while only 4 were women. Orthopedic surgeons made up 93 of 100 top authors, of which 92 were men and 1 was a woman. Among the top 10 publishing female and male authors, 10 of 10 men were orthopedic surgeons, only 2 of 10 women were physicians, and only one was an attending orthopedic surgeon.ConclusionWhile the majority of authors with high arthroplasty publication volume were orthopedic surgeons, there were significant gender disparities among the leading researchers. We should continue working to increase gender representation and supporting the research careers of women in arthroplasty.     

Understanding the Main Predictors of Length of Stay After Total Hip Arthroplasty: Patient-Related or Procedure-Related Risk Factors?

BackgroundRemoving total hip arthroplasty (THA) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) inpatient-only list allows Medicare to cover outpatient THA, driving hospitals to recommend outpatient surgery for appropriate patients and raising safety concerns over which patients’ admissions should remain inpatient. Thus, we aimed to determine the influence of patient-related and procedure-related risk factors as predictors of >1-day Length of Stay (LOS) after THA.MethodsA prospective cohort of 5281 patients underwent primary THA from 2016 to 2019. Risk factors were categorized as patient-related or procedure-related. Multivariable cumulative link models identified significant predictors for 1-day, 2-day, and ≥3-day LOS. Discriminating 1-day LOS from >1-day LOS, we compared performance between two regression models.ResultsA>1-day LOS was significantly associated with age, female gender, higher body mass index, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, Medicare status, and higher Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Physical Function Shortform(HOOS-PS) and lower Veterans RAND12 Mental Component (VR-12 MCS) scores via the initial regression model that contained patient factors only. A second regression model included procedure-related risk factors and indicated that procedure-related risk factors explain LOS more effectively than patient-related risk factors alone, as Akaike information criterion (AIC) increased by approximately 1100 units upon removal from the model.ConclusionAlthough patient-related risk factors alone provide predictive value for LOS following THA, procedure-related risk factors remain the main drivers of predicting LOS. These findings encourage examination of which specific procedural risk factors should be targeted to optimize LOS when choosing between inpatient and outpatient THA, especially within a Medicare population.