SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用

目的 探讨SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用,并对他们的预测效果进行比较.方法 选取2004-2016年上海市流行性腮腺炎逐月发病率资料,基于2004年1月-2016年6月的数据建立SARIMA模型.利用2004-2015年流行性腮腺炎的SARIMA模型拟合值与实际值、时间...     

Adverse events following immunization with the live-attenuated recombinant Japanese encephalitis vaccine (IMOJEV®) in Taiwan, 2017–18

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a significant public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, with a case-fatality rate of around 20% for those who develop encephalitis. Mouse-brain derived vaccines against JE have been used in the publicly funded national immunization program (NIP) in Taiwan since 1968. They were replaced with a live-attenuated recombinant vaccine (JE-CV, IMOJEV®) in May 2017. We assessed reports of adverse events (AE) following the introduction of JE-CV into the Taiwan NIP to characterize its post-licensure safety profile.MethodsAEs reported between 1 May 2017 and 31 December 2018 post vaccination with JE-CV were extracted from the National Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR) Reporting System, a passive surveillance system run by the Taiwan Food and Drug Administration. The report rates were calculated based on the number of doses distributed by the manufacturer during the assessment period.ResultsThere were 51 AEs reported among 30 subjects (12 girls and 18 boys; mean age 25 months), with a reporting rate of 4.7 AEs per 100,000 doses distributed. The AEs occurred after a median of.1-day post vaccination. Eight subjects had received concomitant vaccination with another vaccines. There were four serious AEs reported: febrile seizure, acute renal failure, viral respiratory tract infection, and injection site cellulitis. None of these serious AEs were classified as being causally related to JE-CV vaccination.ConclusionThese post-licensure AE surveillance data confirm the favorable safety profile of JE-CV.     

艾灸疗法治疗热证举隅

探讨艾灸治疗热证的机理。认为艾灸治疗热证的机理为引热外出、引热下行、祛痰攻火、益气养阴清热。并介绍艾灸治疗乳痈、失眠、痄腮、潮热等热证病例四则。     

Influence of MMR-vaccinations and diseases on atopic sensitization and allergic symptoms in Swiss schoolchildren

The prevalence of asthma and allergic disease has increased in many countries. It has been proposed that vaccinations may contribute to the development of allergic disease by reducing clinical infections in infancy or through the direct IgE-inducing effects of the vaccines. Evidence for a potential role of immunizations in the development of allergic disease is scarce. Therefore the objective was to study the associations between vaccinations against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR), natural infections of these diseases and atopic sensitization to indoor and outdoor allergens and allergic symptoms in schoolchildren. The cross-sectional study including 1537 8(th) grade school children aged 13-15 years living in 10 communities across Switzerland was organized in the framework of an environmental health surveillance program within the School Health Services (Swiss Surveillance Program of Childhood Asthma and Allergies with respect to Air Pollution and Climate, SCARPOL). Main outcome measures were asthma and sneezing during pollen season assessed by parental questionnaires and atopic sensitization determined by IgE concentrations to various allergens. It was found that parents' reported history of measles or mumps was associated with a stronger immune response than two or more vaccinations against the respective infection (measles: geometric mean IgG titers (GMT) lU/ml (95% Cl) 2.8 (2.0-3.9) vs. 1.2 (1.0-1.4), mumps: GMT PE/ml (95% Cl) 16.3 (13.9-19.1) vs. 8.5 (6.1-11.7). With respect to atopic sensitization similar associations for exposure by natural MMR-infections or MMR-vaccinations were found: measles: OR (95% Cl) 1.02 (0.53-1.96) vs. 1.22 (0.69-2.16), mumps: 0.59 (0.38-0.93) vs. 0.79 (0.49-1.27), rubella: 0.93 (0.61-1.43) vs. 0.95 (0.66-1.37), respectively. Inverse relationships were found between the risk of asthma and a positive disease history or vaccination of measles 0.36 (0.14-0.91) vs. 0.45 (0.21-0.98) or a positive serum titer against measles 0.65 (0.35-1.20). From the present study can be concluded that exposure by MMR-vaccinations or natural MMR-infections in childhood does not increase the risk of sensitization to common allergens as well as to allergic respiratory diseases. MMR-vaccinations or natural MMR-infections are therefore an unlikely factor contributing to the increase in atopic disease in developed countries.     

2017—2021年苏州市流行性腮腺炎流行病学分析

目的 分析苏州市2017—2021年流行性腮腺炎流行病学特征,为进一步制定流行性腮腺炎防治措施提供科学依据。方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2017—2021年苏州市报告的流行性腮腺炎临床确诊病例,采用描述性流行病学方法进行分析。结果 2017—2021年苏州市共报告流行性腮腺炎病例6 690例,年平均发病率为8.55/10万。2017—2019年流行性腮腺炎年平均发病率为9.09/10万,2020 —2021年平均发病率较之有所降低,为7.87/10万(χ2=14.07,P＜0.05)。4 —6月以及10 —12月为发病高峰。2017—2021年发病率最高的地区为太仓市,其次为常熟市、吴中区。男性年平均发病率为9.98/10万,高于女性的6.90/10万(χ2=44.08,P＜0.05)。发病人群以学生、幼托儿童、散居儿童为主,分别占报告病例总数的46.08%、35.00%、8.89%。结论 自2020年以后,苏州市流行性腮腺炎发病率有所下降,接种2剂次麻腮风疫苗可有效减少并推迟流腮的发生。     

Acute thrombocytopenic purpura following measles, mumps and rubella vaccination. A report on 23 patients

An acute thrombocytopenic purpura developed shortly after measles-mumps-rubella vaccination in 23 of approximately 700 000 children immunized over a period of seven years. The mean interval from inoculation to the onset of purpura was 19 days. Bone marrow aspirates obtained from 13 patients showed increased or normal amounts of megakaryocytes. Platelet survival time was markedly shortened in the two patients studied. Fifteen patients recovered (the platelet count exceeded 100 x 10⁹/1) in one month, five in two months and two in six months. Increase in platelet-associated immunoglobulin was detected in 10 of 15 patients. Circulating antiplatelet autoantibodies (AAb) against glycoprotein IIb/IIIa were detected in 5 of 15 patients. The findings are compatible with an autoimmune mechanism triggered by immune response to measles-mumps-rubella vaccination. As evaluated by the clinical course and the presence of AAb, post-vaccination thrombocytopenic purpura appears to be indistinguishable from childhood acute idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura.     

2008-2017年洛阳市流行性腮腺炎流行病学分析

目的分析2008-2017年洛阳市流行性腮腺炎的流行特征。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对洛阳市传染病信息报告系统中流行性腮腺炎的疫情数据进行分析。结果2008-2017年洛阳市共报告病例15500例,年均报告发病率23.70/10万;3~7月为季节性高峰(占50.68%),病例集中在15岁以下,占88.39%,以学生和托幼儿童为主,占81.86%,5~9岁发病率最高为204.02/10万;暴发集中在学校。结论建议对4岁以上儿童开展腮腺炎疫苗的加强免疫,提高重点人群2剂次流行性腮腺炎疫苗的接种率,以及加强学校和托幼机构疫情监测力度将是我市疫情防控的重点措施。     

中医药防治流行性腮腺炎暴发流行的体会

目的：探讨中医药防治流行性腮腺炎暴发流行的临床疗效与体会。方法：随机选择流行性腮腺炎暴发流行的2个场所分为对照组及观察组,对照组41例患者、213例高危易感人群给予西医西药防治,观察组49例患者、283例高危易感人群给予中医药防治,观察两组疗效及预防效果。结果：两组1个疗程后总有效率均100.00%,观察组治愈率87.76%明显优于对照组的60.98%,观察组治疗后中医症候评分（0.58±0.17）分较对照组（2.17±0.33）分降低更为明显,观察组自开始治疗至发热开始下降、发热完全消退、腮腺肿痛消退1/3、腮腺肿痛完全消退等所需时间均较对照组明显缩短,观察组预防成功率100.00%优于对照组的94.84%,差异均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。结论：中医药防治流行性腮腺炎暴发流行可预防高危易感人群发病,迅速缓解患者病情,减轻患者痛苦,缩短病程,疗效优异,值得临床推广应用。