Process control procedures to augment quality control of leukocyte-reduced red cell blood products.

Quality control of leukocyte-reduced packed red cell units (LRprc) produced in blood facilities must conform to regulatory criteria, which state that units may not contain more than 1 x 10(6) to 5 x 10(6) white blood cells (WBC) per unit. The post-filtration WBC content of a total of n = 386 LRprc units was counted with a Nageotte chamber to model the probability that a unit would not meet the regulatory criteria. The distribution of the residual leukocyte counts is close to a negative binomial distribution (NBD) and is independent of the packed red cell volume filtered. The observed probability that a unit of blood has a residual WBC greater than 5 x 10(6) is 2.6 +/- 2.6 x 10(-3). A power analysis of the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test in this application shows that a sample size of 20 is sufficient for determining that the process is in control when an out of control process has a k NBD parameter greater than or equal to that of the in control process. The three out of control processes observed to date appear to have this property. A sample of size 80 may be necessary for confirming that process validation data sets conform to the larger 'reference' database (n = 386) for processes that are out of control in such a way that their k NBD parameter is less than the k parameter of the in control process.     

Criticism of a hierarchical model using Bayes factors

This paper analyses a data file of heart transplant surgeries performed in the United States over a two-year period. A Poisson/gamma exchangeable model is used to learn about the underlying death rates for 94 hospitals. There are concerns about the suitability of this hierarchical model, including the need for a hierarchical structure, the existence of outliers, the choice of prior hyperparameters, the need for a covariate in the model, and the manner in which exchangeability was modelled. Each concern motivates the construction of alternative models and Bayes factors are used to compare the existing model with the alternative models. Graphical displays are used to check the sensitivity of the posterior analysis with respect to model perturbations and plots of Bayes factors are used to criticize these perturbations.     

Estimation of post-lead-time survival under dependence between lead-time and post-lead-time survival

Early detection of cancer by screening advances the date of diagnosis, but may or may not alter time to death. Screening programme need to assess the true benefit of screening, that is, the length of time by which survival has been extended, beyond merely the time by which the diagnosis is advanced (lead-time). One method is to estimate the distribution of the time survived post-lead-time using total survival time data for screen-detected cancer cases, under the assumption of independence of the lead-time and the past-lead-time survival. However, it seems biologically reasonable that the lead-time and the post-lead-time survival are positively correlated. This paper investigates the consequences of departures from independence of lead-time and post-lead-time survival on estimation of post-lead-time survival. We introduce a new model that involves dependence between the lead-time and the post-lead-time survival. We show that the new model can be converted to the model discussed by Xu and Prorok. We consider the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator of the post-lead-time survival under the new model. We apply the method to data from the HIP (Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York) breast cancer screening trial. We make comparisons with the survival of cancer cases not detected by screening, such as interval cases, cases among individuals who refused screening, and randomized control cases.     

Diphtheria, pertussis, and measles in Portugal before and after mass vaccination: A time series analysis

Techniques of time series analysis were used to examine historical records of the incidence of diphtheria, pertussis, and measles, and of deaths by measles in Portugal during the twentieth century. There are statistically significant seasonal and long-term oscillations in the incidence of these diseases. Seasonal oscillations appear to be in close association with the resumption of school classes in the fall in the case of diphtheria, but not in pertussis and measles. Long-term oscillations in pertussis (3.5–4 year period) and measles (3-year period), before vaccination, corroborate theoretical predictions about the dynamics of these diseases, whereas absence of long-term oscillations in diphtheria is probably due to the influential presence of carriers upon the dynamics of the disease. Mass vaccination strongly suppressed disease incidence, did not eliminate seasonal oscillations, and appeared to have acted to lengthen long-term periodicity in pertussis and measles.     

Clinical Measurement of Testicular Volume in Adolescents: Comparison of the Reliability of 5 Methods

Purpose

Measurement of the testis is a more readily available method of estimating spermatogenesis. Doubt remains about the best instrument for measuring testicular volume. Lack of bias or accuracy of instruments has received too much emphasis in some studies, while to our knowledge no one has yet appropriately compared reliability statistically. We propose a simple new method for measuring testicular size based on visual comparison with graphic models, and describe the reliability and bias of this and 4 traditional methods.

Materials and Methods

Measurements of 42 adolescent testes were made in a certain sequence: graphic method, dimensional measurement, Prader orchidometer, ring orchidometer and ultrasound with ultrasound assumed to be the standard. Statistical analysis was based on the linear structural model.

Results

Statistical tests indicated that all 5 methods are equally reliable (R greater than 0.9). Although they are not equally accurate, actual testicular size can be calculated using each of these 5 methods and the equations of the linear structural model.

Conclusions

The new graphic method proposed in this study is as reliable as other well-known methods for measuring testicular size. Actual testicular volume can be estimated without bias and with equal reliability from any of the 5 methods using the equations of the linear structural model. This statistical approach is more relevant than the sole comparison of lack of bias or accuracy, which has been the main concern of previous studies.     

Spatio-temporal progression of the AEP P300 component using the cortical imaging technique

Summary The cortical imaging technique (CIT), a mathematical method for simulating the potential fields on the surface of the brain, was used to analyze the spatio-temporal progression of the AEP P300 component (as well as the preceding and subsequent N2a and N3 components) from thirty normal adult subjects recorded in a standard oddball paradigm. Comparisons were made between the progressions of the endogenous event-related cognitive potentials and the exogenous stimulus-dependent potentials (Nl component). Cortical imaging results suggest that different and multiple generator sites are involved in the production of exogenous and endogenous evoked responses. We particularly note the asymmetric development of the P300 component and the apparent anterior generator sites for the N2a component. This last result is interesting because the N2a precedes the P300 component and supports an earlier frontal contribution.     

The redshift-distance relation

Key predictions of the Hubble law are inconsistent with direct observations on equitable complete samples of extragalactic sources in the optical, infrared, and x-ray wave bands-e.g., the predicted dispersion in apparent magnitude is persistently greatly in excess of its observed value, precluding an explanation via hypothetical perturbations or irregularities. In contrast, the predictions of the Lundmark (homogeneous quadratic) law are consistent with the observations. The Lundmark law moreover predicts the deviations between Hubble law predictions and observation with statistical consistency, while the Hubble law provides no explanation for the close fit of the Lundmark law. The flux-redshift law F [symbol, see text] (1 + z)/z appears consistent with observations on equitable complete samples in the entire observed redshift range, when due account is taken of flux limits by an optimal statistical method. Under the theoretical assumption that space is a fixed sphere, as in the Einstein universe, this law implies the redshift-distance relation z = tan2(r/2R), where R is the radius of the spherical space. This relation coincides with the prediction of chronometric cosmology, which estimates R as 160 +/- 40 Mpc (1 parsec = 3.09 x 10(16) m) from the proper motion to redshift relation of superluminal sources. Tangential aspects, including statistical methodology, fundamental physical theory, bright cluster galaxy samples, and proposed luminosity evolution, are briefly considered.     

A graded representation model for Macdonald's polynomials

We define doubly graded Sn modules Rmu for which we conjecture that the multiplicities of irreducible representations in various bi-degrees are given by the Macdonald coefficients Klambdamu. Assuming one fundamental conjecture, the modules Rmu can be given several equivalent definitions, which we discuss. We prove the conjectures in various special cases.     

Global solutions of the equations of elastodynamics of incompressible neo-Hookean materials

I prove that the initial-value problem for the motion of a certain type of elastic body has a solution for all time if the initial data are sufficiently small. The body must fill all of three-space, obey a "neo-Hookean" stress-strain law, and be incompressible. The proof takes advantage of the delayed singularity formation which occurs for solutions of quasilinear hyperbolic equations in more than one space dimension. It turns out that the curl of the displacement of the body obeys such an equation. Thus, using Klainerman's inequality, one derives the necessary estimates to guarantee that solutions persist for all time.