吉林辽宁两省18年来的目标设置对突发公共卫生事件应急工作落实情况的关联研究

目的本研究立足于项目组前期研究的成果上，积极探索吉林辽宁两省目标设置水平的差异，并进一步探究受目标设置影响下的工作落实结果情况，探讨产生差异的原因。 方法以系统穷尽的方式收集吉林辽宁两省2000至2017年有关目标与工作落实情况的指标，利用Spearman相关和线性回归分析吉林辽宁两省目标设置对于突发应急工作落实情况的影响。 结果吉林辽宁两省突发应急领域的目标设置水平与工作落实情况总体均呈现上升趋势，截至2017年，吉林目标设置水平与工作落实情况分别为46%与60%，辽宁为60%与53.3%，且目标设置水平与工作落实呈正相关。 结论有公众需要为依据且定量可考的目标设置对于工作落实、推进、完善具有积极的正反馈作用，建立科学量化的突发应急目标设置评价体系是适宜可行的。     

Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials: Efficacy and Safety of UDCA-Based Therapies in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

Major ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-based therapies for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) include UDCA only, or combined with either methotrexate (MTX), corticosteroids (COT), colchicine (COC), or bezafibrate (BEF). As the optimum treatment regimen is unclear and warrants exploration, we aimed to compare these therapies in terms of patient mortality or liver transplantation (MOLT) and adverse events (AE).PubMed, the Cochrane Library, and Scopus were searched for randomized controlled trials up to August 31, 2014. We estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) for MOLT and odds ratios (ORs) for AE. A sensitivity analysis based on the dose of UDCA was also executed.Thirty-one eligible articles were included. Compared with COT plus UDCA, UDCA (HR 0.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09–1.39), BEF plus UDCA (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.02–4.83), COC plus UDCA (HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.07–2.25), MTX plus UDCA (HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.05–1.63), or OBS (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.11–2.01) all provided an increased risk of MOLT. With respect to drug AE profile, although not differing appreciably, BEF plus UDCA was associated with more AEs compared with UDCA (OR 3.16, 95% CI 0.59–20.67), COT plus UDCA (OR 2.27, 95% CI 0.15–33.36), COC plus UDCA (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.09–12.16), MTX plus UDCA (OR 2.03, 95% CI 0.23–17.82), or OBS (OR 3.00, 95% CI 0.53–20.75). The results of sensitivity analyses were highly consistent with previous analyses.COT plus UDCA was the optimal UDCA-based regimen for both MOLT and AEs. BEF plus UDCA was most likely to cause AEs, whereas monotherapy with UDCA and coadministriation of COT plus UDCA appeared to be associated with the fewest AEs for PBC treatment.     

基于剂量组学预测肺癌患者放射性肺炎发生的研究

目的 探讨剂量组学在预测肺癌根治性放疗患者放射性肺炎发生中的应用潜能。方法 回顾性收集行根治性放疗的314例肺癌患者的临床资料、放疗剂量文件、定位及随访CT图像,根据临床资料及影像学随访资料对放射性肺炎进行分级,提取全肺的剂量组学特征,构建机器学习模型。应用1000次自助抽样法（bootstrap）的最小绝对值收敛和选择算子嵌套逻辑回归（LASSO‐LR）及1000次bootstrap的赤池信息量准则（AIC）向后法筛选与放射性肺炎相关的剂量组学特征,随机按照7∶3划分为训练集及验证集,应用逻辑回归建立预测模型,并应用ROC曲线及校正曲线评价模型的性能。结果 共提取120个剂量组学特征,经LASSO‐LR降维筛选得到12个特征进入“特征池”,再经过AIC向后法筛选,最终筛选出6个剂量组学特征进行模型构建,训练集AUC为0.77（95%CI为0.65~0.87）,独立验证集AUC为0.72（95%CI为0.64~0.81）。结论 利用剂量组学建立的预测模型具有预测放射性肺炎发生的潜力,但仍需继续纳入多中心数据及前瞻性数据进一步挖掘剂量组学的应用潜能。