Predictive power of various models for longitudinal attachment level change

Abstract Several statistical models that have been suggested in the periodontal literature for describing longitudinal attachment level changes, such as the gradual loss, single-burst, multiple-burst, and random walk models as well as other models introduced in this paper are compared by their power to predict future attachment loss. The data used in this analysis is from 1061 sites of 8 subjects, with moderate to severe periodontal disease, monitored monthly for about a year. This study found that none of the suggested models could significantly outperform the naive mean predictor, which predicts the future attachment level from the past mean. It was also found that no single model, such as the burst, gradual, or random walk, together with measurement error can fully explain the variation in the data. These results indicate that in the course of one year, the attachment level change may not follow the same model. Consequently, a model that fits well to past data cannot be accurately extended to the future.     

通瘀注射液盆腔给药法治疗外在型子宫内膜异位症的临床研究

目的　运用通瘀注射液在非直视下经输卵管盆腔给药对子宫内膜异位症 (EEMs)的治疗作用 ,探讨活血化瘀法对EEMs的作用机理及此给药法的优势。方法　将临床治疗的EEMs患者 60例随机分为治疗组 (通瘀注射液组 )和对照组 (丹那唑组 ) ,疗程各为 3个月。用药前后测定下列指标 :临床症状与体征、内分泌激素、血液流变学、癌抗原 12 5 (CA12 5)和子宫内膜抗体 (EMAb)的阳性率变化。结果　治疗组的临床症状与体征、血液粘滞度和红细胞压积、CA12 5和EMAb的阳性率均降低 ,卵泡刺激素 (FSH)、黄体生成素 (LH)、雌二醇 (E2 )和孕激素 (P)的含量均受到调节 ,与对照组相比 ,差异有显著性。而治疗组对内分泌的调节能力弱于对照组 ,但作用柔和、均衡。结论　通瘀注射液对EEMs的作用是通过清除月经时异位内膜的瘀血、水肿、改善微循环及组织供氧、调节免疫功能和内分泌紊乱而实现的 ,与丹那唑相比其副作用小、并以治本为主。盆腔给药法则可使药物直达病灶 ,见效快     

重症肌无力患者泼尼松治疗前后免疫学指标的变化

探讨泼尼松治疗重症肌无力（MG）免疫学机制。对382例MG患者在漏尼松中剂量冲击，小剂量维持疗法治疗前后，检测酰胆碱受体抗炎（AchRab)，突触前膜抗体（PsMab)，单个核细胞亚群（PBMC），肿瘤坏死因子（TNF），可溶性白介素－2受体（SIL－2R），β2－微球蛋白（β2－m)，以及红细胞免疫功能的变化。结果表明：MG患者在泼尼松治疗前后多项免疫指标有显著性的变化。为泼尼松治疗MG提供了评定疗效的免疫学指标，进一步阐明了MG发病的免疫学机制。     

Early life precursors of psychiatric outcomes in adulthood in subjects at risk for schizophrenia or affective disorders.

In the New York High-Risk Project (NYHRP), 186 offspring of schizophrenic, affectively ill, and psychiatrically normal parents have been followed prospectively from 1971-72 to the average age of 27 years in 1990 with the goal of identifying early precursors of later psychopathology. In this report, we use path analyses to examine the relationship of several life-history variables to three pathological outcomes in the offspring: namely, psychosis, psychiatric hospitalization, and psychological dysfunction. The chief direct relationship with these outcomes is the effect of having a schizophrenic parent. The latter effect is also mediated indirectly by IQ.     

Chronic Kidney Isograft and Allograft Rejection

In this study antigen-independent factor in the pathogenesis of chronic rejection of organ transplants was examined.Kidney isografts and allografts were transplanted orthotopically into bilaterally nephroectomized rat recipients and studied functionaaly,morphologically and immunohistologically,at serial intervals up to 52 weeks after transplantation.Allograft recipients developed progressive proteinuria after 12 weeks,with gradual renal failure ultimately leading to death.At the same time,morphological changes,including progressive arteriosclerosis and glomerulosclerosis ,tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis,developed.Immunohistologically,macrophages infiltrated glomeruli during this period and cytokines became unregulated.Our results showed that antigen-independent functional and morphological changes occurred in long-tern kidney isografts and mimicked those appearing much earlier in allografts that reject chronically.Initial injury and extent of functioning renal mass is suggested to be important factor for such late changes.     

利多卡因宫旁阻滞麻醉在人工流产中的应用

人工流产手术虽然时间短,一般不需麻醉,但毕竟是手术操作,也给受术者带来一定的痛苦[1]。患者由此产生恐惧心理,甚至发生人流综和症等一系列并发症。我院门诊针对这种情况在人流手术中采用利多卡因宫旁阻滞麻醉,取得良好效果,现报道如下。1资料与方法1.1一般资料2005年3月至200