Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007

The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) was developed to aid in country-level estimation and short-term projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics. This paper describes advances reflected in the most recent update of this tool (EPP 2007), and identifies key issues that remain to be addressed in future versions. The major change to EPP 2007 is the addition of uncertainty estimation for generalised epidemics using the technique of Bayesian melding, but many additional changes have been made to improve the user interface and efficiency of the package. This paper describes the interface for uncertainty analysis, changes to the user interface for calibration procedures and other user interface changes to improve EPP's utility in different settings. While formal uncertainty assessment remains an unresolved challenge in low-level and concentrated epidemics, the Bayesian melding approach has been applied to provide analysts in these settings with a visual depiction of the range of models that may be consistent with their data. In fitting the model to countries with longer-running epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa, a number of limitations have been identified in the current model with respect to accommodating behaviour change and accurately replicating certain observed epidemic patterns. This paper discusses these issues along with their implications for future changes to EPP and to the underlying UNAIDS Reference Group model.     

Induction of donor-type chimerism in murine recipients of bone marrow allografts by different radiation regimens currently used in treatment of leukemia patients

Three radiation protocols currently used in treatment of leukemia patients before bone marrow transplantation (BMT) were investigated in a murine model (C57BL/6----C3H/HeJ) for BM allograft rejection. These include (a) a single dose of total body irradiation (8.5 Gy TBI delivered at a dose rate of 0.2 Gy/min), (b) fractionated TBI (12 Gy administered in six fractions, 2 Gy twice a day in 3 days, delivered at a dose rate of 0.1 Gy/min, and (c) hyperfractionated TBI (14.4 Gy administered in 12 fractions, 1.2 Gy three times a day in 3 days, delivered at a dose rate of 0.1 Gy/min). Donor-type chimerism 6 to 8 weeks after BMT and hematologic reconstitution on day 12 after BMT found in these groups were compared with results obtained in mice conditioned with 8 Gy TBI delivered at a dose rate of 0.67 Gy/min, routinely used in this murine model. The results in both parameters showed a marked advantage for the single dose 8.5 Gy TBI over all the other treatments. This advantage was found to be equivalent to three- to fourfold increment in the BM inoculum when compared with hyperfractionated radiation, which afforded the least favorable conditions for development of donor-type chimerism. The fractionated radiation protocol was equivalent in its efficacy to results obtained in mice irradiated by single-dose 8 Gy TBI, both of which afforded a smaller but not significant advantage over the hyperfractionated protocol. This model was also used to test the effect of radiation dose rate on the development of donor-type chimerism. A significant enhancement was found after an increase in dose rate from 0.1 to 0.7 Gy/min. Further enhancement could be achieved when the dose rate was increased to 1.3 Gy/min, but survival at this high dose rate was reduced. These results demonstrated indirectly that dose rate affects the expression of host-type pluripotent stem cells, the progeny of which appear 3 to 6 weeks after treatment with 8 Gy TBI delivered at a dose rate of 0.1 Gy/min, but which are eradicated if radiation is delivered at a dose rate of 1.3 Gy/min.     

Treatment of ulcerative colitis with fish oil n--3-omega-fatty acid: an open trial

We evaluated the efficacy of fish oil n--3-omega-fatty acids, inhibitors of leukotriene synthesis, in the treatment of ulcerative colitis. An open trial of 10 patients with mild to moderate ulcerative colitis who had either failed (n = 9) or refused (n = 1) conventional therapy was performed. Patients received 15 MAX-EPA capsules containing a total of 2.7 g of eicosapentanoic acid in three divided doses daily for 8 weeks. The activity of ulcerative colitis and response to therapy was based upon daily stool diaries, sigmoidoscopy, and symptomatic response. All patients tolerated the fish oil and showed no alteration in routine blood studies. Seven patients had moderate to marked improvement; steroid dose could be reduced in four of the five patients on prednisone. Three patients had little or no improvement. No patient worsened. These results of our open study appear to justify a double-blind trial of this dietary supplement in ambulatory patients with ulcerative colitis.     

Characterization of a new megakaryocytic cell line: the Dami cell

A new human megakaryocytic cell line (Dami) has been established from the blood of a patient with megakaryoblastic leukemia. The Dami cells grow primarily in suspension with a doubling time of 24 to 30 hours. By light and electron microscopy, the Dami cells range in size from 12 to 120 micron in diameter and have lobulated nuclei characteristic of megakaryocytes. At least 89% of the cells react with monoclonal antibodies against platelet glycoproteins (GP) Ib and IIB/IIIa, and glycophorin. The cells do not react with antibodies against lymphoid, monocyte, granulocyte, or macrophage antigens. Thirteen percent of the cells become polyploid, spontaneously achieving greater than 4N DNA ploidy levels. In response to phorbol myristate acetate (PMA), the proportion of cells with ploidy levels greater than 4N increased threefold and could be separated into discrete ploidy groups. PMA also increased the expression of GPIb, the GPIIb/GPIIIa complex,l and von Willebrand factor. Cytogenetic analysis revealed a human male hyperdiploid karyotype with a modal chromosome number of 54 to 64 and several consistent clonal chromosomal abnormalities. These included a partial deletion of chromosome 5 and a translocation involving chromosome 3. In contrast to other megakaryocytic cell lines in which only a small portion of the cells express the megakaryocytic phenotype, nearly all of the Dami cells express platelet glycoproteins. Thus, the Dami cells provide a superior model in which to study human megakaryocyte biochemistry and differentiation.     

Patients with severe factor XI deficiency have a reduced incidence of deep-vein thrombosis

Factor XI (FXI) plays a dual role in haemostasis and thrombosis. It contributes to thrombin generation and promotes inhibition of fibrinolysis. Severe FXI deficiency was shown to confer protection against arterial and venous thrombosis in animal models without compromising haemostasis. We have previously shown that patients with severe FXI deficiency have a low incidence of ischaemic stroke, but display the usual incidence of myocardial infarction. In the present study, we compared the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) in 219 unrelated patients with severe FXI deficiency aged 20-94 to the incidence in a large population-based study. No cases of DVT were observed in the FXI-deficient cohort, a result that is significantly lower than the expected number (4.68) computed from the population-based study. The low incidence remains statistically significant when compared to three other population-based studies. These data suggest that severe FXI deficiency provides protection against DVT.