An Independent Evaluation of Four Quantitative Emergency Department Crowding Scales

Background Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a frequent topic of investigation. Despite a significant body of research, there is no standard definition or measurement of ED crowding. Four quantitative scales for ED crowding have been proposed in the literature: the Real‐time Emergency Analysis of Demand Indicators (READI), the Emergency Department Work Index (EDWIN), the National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study (NEDOCS) scale, and the Emergency Department Crowding Scale (EDCS). These four scales have yet to be independently evaluated and compared. Objectives The goals of this study were to formally compare four existing quantitative ED crowding scales by measuring their ability to detect instances of perceived ED crowding and to determine whether any of these scales provide a generalizable solution for measuring ED crowding. Methods Data were collected at two‐hour intervals over 135 consecutive sampling instances. Physician and nurse agreement was assessed using weighted κ statistics. The crowding scales were compared via correlation statistics and their ability to predict perceived instances of ED crowding. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were calculated at site‐specific cut points and at the recommended thresholds. Results All four of the crowding scales were significantly correlated, but their predictive abilities varied widely. NEDOCS had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) (0.92), while EDCS had the lowest (0.64). The recommended thresholds for the crowding scales were rarely exceeded; therefore, the scales were adjusted to site‐specific cut points. At a site‐specific cut point of 37.19, NEDOCS had the highest sensitivity (0.81), specificity (0.87), and positive predictive value (0.62). Conclusions At the study site, the suggested thresholds of the published crowding scales did not agree with providers' perceptions of ED crowding. Even after adjusting the scales to site‐specific thresholds, a relatively low prevalence of ED crowding resulted in unacceptably low positive predictive values for each scale. These results indicate that these crowding scales lack scalability and do not perform as designed in EDs where crowding is not the norm. However, two of the crowding scales, EDWIN and NEDOCS, and one of the READI subscales, bed ratio, yielded good predictive power (AROC >0.80) of perceived ED crowding, suggesting that they could be used effectively after a period of site‐specific calibration at EDs where crowding is a frequent occurrence.     

Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Peripheral quantitative computed tomography in children and adolescents: the 2007 ISCD Pediatric Official Positions

Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) has mainly been used as a research tool in children. To evaluate the clinical utility of pQCT and formulate recommendations for its use in children, the International Society of Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) convened a task force to review the literature and propose areas of consensus and future research. The types of pQCT technology available, the clinical application of pQCT for bone health assessment in children, the important elements to be included in a pQCT report, and quality control monitoring techniques were evaluated. The review revealed a lack of standardization of pQCT techniques, and a paucity of data regarding differences between pQCT manufacturers, models and software versions and their impact in pediatric assessment. Measurement sites varied across studies. Adequate reference data, a critical element for interpretation of pQCT results, were entirely lacking, although some comparative data on healthy children were available. The elements of the pQCT clinical report and quality control procedures are similar to those recommended for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Future research is needed to establish evidence-based criteria for the selection of the measurement site, scan acquisition and analysis parameters, and outcome measures. Reference data that sufficiently characterize the normal range of variability in the population also need to be established.     

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations of free-living subjects consuming olestra

The effect of olestra on vitamin D status was assessed in a 6-wk, double-blind, placebo-controlled study involving 202 free-living adults. Subjects consumed a total of 20 g/d of olestra or triglycerides in cookies eaten at each meal. A 20-micrograms ergocalciferol capsule was taken with each morning meal. Serum 25-hydroxyergocalciferol (25-OHD2) concentrations rose from approximately 5.7 to 39.0 and 31.7 nmol/L in the placebo and olestra groups, respectively, at week 6. At week 6, 25-OHD2 contributed 46-54% to total serum 25-OHD concentration compared with 11% at baseline. The 19% decrease in serum 25-OHD2 concentrations produced by olestra in this study is equivalent to a decrease of approximately 1.2 nmol/L under nonsupplemented dietary conditions. Ingesting 20 g olestra/d in the diet is thus not expected to affect vitamin D nutritional status.     

September 11th related stress and trauma in New Yorkers

Exposure to trauma and stress has been linked with poor health, while forgiveness appears to be positively associated with health outcomes. The current study investigates whether traits such as forgiveness and ruminative tendencies predict levels of trauma and stress experienced by New York City residents on the 1‐year anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attack. Seventy‐one students and staff members (57 females, 14 males) of a graduate school in New York City were administered the Impact of Events Scale, the Perceived Stress Scale, and questionnaires designed for the purpose of this study to measure ruminative tendencies and forgiveness on September 11, 2002. Rumination predicted levels of trauma (p < 0.05) and perceived stress (p < 0.01). Lower levels of forgiveness predicted perceived stress (p < 0.05), but not trauma. Rumination mediated the relationship between forgiveness and perceived stress. These findings suggest that individuals with higher levels of rumination have an elevated risk of experiencing trauma and stress‐related symptoms following a traumatic event. Forgiveness is associated with lower levels of stress, but not trauma, perhaps because trauma is an extreme form of stress. Forgiveness appears to serve as a buffer against stress more so in individuals with low levels of rumination than in individuals with high levels of rumination. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.