Advances in Causal Chain Development and Testing in Alcohol Research: Mediation, Suppression, Moderation, Mediated Moderation, and Moderated Mediation

Background:  While causal modeling is generally well known to alcohol researchers, several causal structures (including suppression, mediated moderation, and moderated mediation) are often poorly understood and seldom employed when investigators seek to model the complex mechanisms of behavior change, despite their widespread applicability to the field.
Methods:  This paper compares and contrasts five basic structures of causal modeling in the context of contemporary alcohol research and demonstrates how mechanisms of behavior change can be conceptualized and tested as parallel and serial sequences of these basic causal structures, forming causal chains.
Conclusion:  Recent methodological developments, while representing an important advancement for the field, fail to adequately address the complexities of alcohol dependence phenomena. A differentiation between frequently combined forms of these causal structures is proposed that would better address the needs of the field.