Clinical and Actuarial Prediction of Physical Violence in a Forensic Intellectual Disability Hospital: A Longitudinal Study

Background There is a high rate of physical violence in populations with intellectual disabilities, and this has been linked to problems for the victim, the assailant, members of staff and services. Despite the clinical significance of this behaviour, few studies have assessed methods of predicting its occurrence. The present study examined clinical and actuarial methods of predicting violence in a forensic intellectual disability hospital. Methods The sample for the study consisted of people resident in the hospital during a 1‐year period (n = 124). Clinical prediction used a risk rating made by members of the person's clinical team, whereas actuarial prediction used the number of violent incidents in the 6‐months before the date of the clinical risk assessment. Computerized hospital records of violence in the 6 months after the assessment were used to examine the predictive accuracy of the two methods. Results The clinical method produced an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.65–0.83) in a receiver–operating characteristic curve analysis. The value for the actuarial method was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.86). Both methods performed at levels significantly above chance, but no one method was found to be superior to the other. Conclusions These findings suggest that it is possible to predict who is at risk of violence in forensic populations with intellectual disabilities. Here, the authors discuss the clinical implications of these findings and the clinical application of risk prediction within clinical services.     

The induction of epidermal ornithine decarboxylase following tape stripping is inhibited by a topical vitamin D3 analogue (MC903)

The efficacy of MC903, a vitamin D3 analogue, in reducing hyperproliferation as determined by levels of ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) was investigated in a double-blind study of 15 patients with chronic plaque psoriasis. The lesions of psoriasis were treated for 8 weeks with MC903 in one of two different cream bases or with a placebo cream. Biopsies were taken before and after treatment. In addition an uninvolved area of skin was treated during the last 3 weeks and this as well as control areas were then sellotape stripped and biopsied after 8 h. Clinical improvement was seen in eight out of 11 patients treated with MC903 but there was no reduction in the level of ODC in psoriatic lesions after 8 weeks of treatment. The levels of ODC in the tape-stripped uninvolved skin after 3 weeks of treatment with MC903 averaged 22.5 +/- 4.2 pmol/min/mg protein as compared to 58.6 +/- 12.6 pmol/min/mg protein (P = 0.004). The trauma-induced induction of ODC activity was markedly inhibited by the application of MC903.