Estimation of policy effects using parametric nonlinear models: a contextual critique of the generalized method of moments

The typical empirical study in health services and outcomes research is aimed at estimating the causal effect that an exogenously imposed condition (e.g. a policy mandate) will have (or has had) on a specified outcome of interest. Controlling for unobservable confounding influences is of primary importance in such analyses. The instrumental variables (IV) method has been widely used for this purpose in the linear regression context. The present paper examines the pros and cons of alternative versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) [of which the IV estimator is a special case] for the estimation of policy effects when endogeneity is present in a nonlinear regression setting. We show that conventional GMM is difficult to implement for policy analysis because it does not typically accommodate symmetry—similar treatment of both observable and unobservable confounders in the regression specification. Although, simple additive (nonsymmetric) regression specifications afford practical GMM estimators, they are difficult to defend from both intuitive and conceptual standpoints. Moreover, as we show via simulation, if symmetry is ignored and conventional GMM is applied based on an incorrectly specified non-symmetric model, then policy analytic estimates can be seriously biased. As a result, prospects for the development and application of intuitive consistent GMM-based policy effect estimators are dim. The problem stems from the reasonable desire on the part of the researcher to derive GMM estimators in the nonlinear framework that are based solely upon the conventional minimalist linear IV assumptions. We show, in the context of our formulation of a simple but consistent alternative to GMM in the probit case, that intuitively appealing additional assumptions about the data generating process of the policy variable will often be sufficient for the development of desirable alternatives to the GMM.     

hs-CRP、TAS联合血脂检测在早老性痴呆症诊断中的应用研究

[目的]研究超敏C反应蛋白（hs-CRP）、总抗氧化状态（TAS）联合血脂检测在早老性痴呆症诊断中的应用价值：[方法]选择浦东新区精神卫生中心早老性痴呆专科门诊患者54例，作超敏C反应蛋白、总抗氧化状态与血脂检测。[结果]与对照组比较，实验组hs-CRP、TAS差异非常显著，t1=4．55，t2=2．79，P1〈0．001，P2〈0．01；血脂中甘油三酯、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、载脂蛋白B、Lp（a）差异显著；t1=3.01，P1〈0．01，t2=2．21，P2〈0．05，t3=2．64，P3〈0．01，t4=1．91，P4〈0．05。[结论]超敏C反应蛋白、总抗氧化状态联合血脂（甘油三酯、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇、载脂蛋白B、Lp（a））检测对实验室诊断早老性痴呆症具有较好敏感性和特异性，临床应用前景乐观。     

Treatment of Acquired Bilateral Nevus of Ota-Like Macules (Hori''s Nevus) with a Combination of the 532 nm Q-Switched Nd:YAG Laser Followed by the 1,064 nm Q-Switched Nd:YAG Is More Effective: Prospective Study

BACKGROUND: Acquired bilateral nevus of Ota-like macules (Hori's nevus) is a common dyschromatosis among Asian women. Q-switched lasers have been used successfully as a treatment modality. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of using the Q-switched 532 nm neodymium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet (Nd:YAG) laser followed by the 1,064 nm laser versus the Q-switched 1,064 nm Nd:YAG laser alone in the treatment of Hori's nevus. METHODS: This is a prospective left-right comparative study. Ten women with bilateral Hori's nevus were recruited and treated with a combination of the Q-switched 532 and 1,064 nm Nd:YAG lasers on the right cheek and the Q-switched 1,064 nm Nd:YAG laser alone on the left cheek. Only one laser treatment session was performed. The degree of pigmentation was objectively recorded with a mexameter. Subjective assessment was made by both patients and two blinded, nontreating dermatologists. RESULTS: At 6 months, there was a statistically significant difference (p = .009) of 35.10 points using objective mexameter measurements between the two sides, favoring the side treated with a combination of 532 and 1,064 nm laser treatment. Subjective grading by the patients and blinded dermatologists also confirmed that combination therapy was more successful after one treatment. Although combination treatment had a higher incidence of mild postinflammatory changes, this disappeared within 2 months. CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent use of the Q-switched 532 nm Nd:YAG laser in combination with the 1,064 nm laser is more effective in pigment clearance than the Q-switched 1,064 nm Nd:YAG laser alone for Hori's nevi.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms based on five year results from a randomised hospital based mass screening trial.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). MATERIAL AND METHODS: All 12,639 men born in the years 1921-1933 (aged 64-73) living in Viborg County, Denmark, were randomly allocated either to receive an invitation to abdominal ultrasound scanning for AAA or to be controls. Costs for screening and surveillance were assessed prospectively. Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) costs from 1999 were used concerning admissions with uncomplicated and complicated operations. Admissions for AAA surgery were retrospectively classified according to complications in patient records. RESULTS: Mean follow-up time was 52 months. 76.6% of invited men attended screening, and 191 (4.0%) had an AAA. As previously reported, the cumulative 5-year AAA-specific mortality in the invited group was significantly reduced by 67% compared to the control group (P = 0.003). The costs were estimated to be Euro 11.23 per scan. The costs per life-year saved were Euro 9057 (Euro 5872-20,063) after 5 years, and were expected to decrease to Euro 2708 (Euro 1758-6031) after 10 years and to Euro 1825 (Euro 1185-4063) after 15 years. CONCLUSION: Screening of 64-73 years old males in Denmark seems cost effective.     

Alcohol consumption patterns and predictors of use following liver transplantation for alcoholic liver disease.

For patients who receive a liver transplant (LTX) for alcoholic liver disease (ALD), investigators are focusing beyond survival to determine specific alcohol use outcomes. Studies suggest the use of alcohol ranges from 8 to 22% for the first post-transplant year with cumulative rates reaching 30 to 40% by 5 years following transplantation. Yet while investigators are interested in determining specific rates of alcohol use and predictors of use, only three studies since 1990 have been prospective. In 1998, we began a prospective study of post-LTX alcohol consumption in ALD recipients using multiple repeated measures of alcohol use. After 5 years of follow-up, we found that 22% had used any alcohol by the first year and 42% had a drink by 5 years. By 5 years, 26% drank at a heavier use (binge) pattern and 20% drank in a frequent pattern. In a univariate model, predictors of alcohol use included pre-transplant length of sobriety, a diagnosis of alcohol dependence, a history of other substance use, and prior alcohol rehabilitation.