Low-dose hydrocortisone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia (COVID STEROID) trial—Protocol and statistical analysis plan

Introduction

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 has caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with many patients developing hypoxic respiratory failure. Corticosteroids reduce the time on mechanical ventilation, length of stay in the intensive care unit and potentially also mortality in similar patient populations. However, corticosteroids have undesirable effects, including longer time to viral clearance. Clinical equipoise on the use of corticosteroids for COVID-19 exists.

Methods

The COVID STEROID trial is an international, randomised, stratified, blinded clinical trial. We will allocate 1000 adult patients with COVID-19 receiving ≥10 L/min of oxygen or on mechanical ventilation to intravenous hydrocortisone 200 mg daily vs placebo (0.9% saline) for 7 days. The primary outcome is days alive without life support (ie mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, and renal replacement therapy) at day 28. Secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions at day 14; days alive without life support at day 90; days alive and out of hospital at day 90; all-cause mortality at day 28, day 90, and 1 year; and health-related quality of life at 1 year. We will conduct the statistical analyses according to this protocol, including interim analyses for every 250 patients followed for 28 days. The primary outcome will be compared using the Kryger Jensen and Lange test in the intention to treat population and reported as differences in means and medians with 95% confidence intervals.

Discussion

The COVID STEROID trial will provide important evidence to guide the use of corticosteroids in COVID-19 and severe hypoxia.

     

Group testing in mediation analysis

We consider the scenario where there is an exposure, multiple biologically defined sets of biomarkers, and an outcome. We propose a new two-step procedure that tests if any of the sets of biomarkers mediate the exposure/outcome relationship, while maintaining a prespecified familywise error rate. The first step of the proposed procedure is a screening step that removes all groups that are unlikely to be strongly associated with both the exposure and the outcome. The second step adapts recent advances in postselection inference to test if there are true mediators in each of the remaining candidate sets. We use simulation to show that this simple two-step procedure has higher statistical power to detect true mediating sets when compared with existing procedures. We then use our two-step procedure to identify a set of Lysine-related metabolites that potentially mediate the known relationship between increased body mass index and the increased risk of estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women.     

Emerging from their burrow: Hedgehog pathway inhibitors for cancer

Introduction: Cancer treatment is moving away from conventional cytotoxic drugs and towards agents that target specific proteins and mechanisms important to cancer development or survival. The Hedgehog Pathway (HhP) is a signal transduction pathway and its constitutive activation is tumorigenic in basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The HhP enables phenotypic flexibility, and channels tumor-stroma interactions. As a result, it is over-expressed in numerous cancers as well as in the tumor microenvironment and may represent a promising therapeutic target.

Areas covered: In this article, we review the rationale for targeting HhP and its role as an oncogenic driver, in tumor epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and in the tumor microenvironment and describe the results of preclinical and clinical studies involving HhP inhibitors.

Expert opinion: HhP activation plays an important role in both the tumor microenvironment and tumor EMT which can lead to treatment resistance for a number of different malignancies. In addition to standard use in BCC, several HhP inhibitors are in preclinical, early, and mid-stage clinical development for other solid and hematologic malignancies.     

Chronic urticaria and osteoporosis: a longitudinal,community-based cohort study of 11 944 patients

Osteoporosis is a condition in which the bones are thinner and more liable to fracture. It is commoner in women and in people over 50. It cannot be cured so the focus is on prevention, which means identifying and addressing risk factors such as obesity, low vitamin D, chronic inflammation and prolonged steroid medication. Chronic urticaria (hives, CU) is an inflammatory condition, so one might expect it to be linked with osteoporosis, but that has never been investigated. If people with CU are indeed more likely to develop osteoporosis, they could be advised about preventative measures. To study this, doctors from Israel identified 11,944 patients diagnosed with CU in a large medical database covering 4.5 million people. A potential difficulty was that people with CU are more likely to be female, obese and to have been treated with systemic steroids, all of which also increase the risk of osteoporosis. Therefore for each CU patient they studied 5 age- and sex-matched control patients (people of the same age and sex but without CU) and their analyses took into account other known risk factors for osteoporosis. During a 16 year period 8.7% of the patients with CU were diagnosed with osteoporosis compared with 6.8% of the controls. They concluded that CU is a small but significant additional risk factor for osteoporosis. An accompanying editorial cautions against basing conclusions on routine health records which may not have all the information required. Nonetheless, doctors treating chronic urticaria might bear in mind the risk of osteoporosis in their patients, and counsel accordingly.     

Patterns in metabolite profile are associated with risk of more aggressive prostate cancer: A prospective study of 3,057 matched case–control sets from EPIC

Metabolomics may reveal novel insights into the etiology of prostate cancer, for which few risk factors are established. We investigated the association between patterns in baseline plasma metabolite profile and subsequent prostate cancer risk, using data from 3,057 matched case–control sets from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We measured 119 metabolite concentrations in plasma samples, collected on average 9.4 years before diagnosis, by mass spectrometry (AbsoluteIDQ p180 Kit, Biocrates Life Sciences AG). Metabolite patterns were identified using treelet transform, a statistical method for identification of groups of correlated metabolites. Associations of metabolite patterns with prostate cancer risk (OR_1SD) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. Supplementary analyses were conducted for metabolite patterns derived using principal component analysis and for individual metabolites. Men with metabolite profiles characterized by higher concentrations of either phosphatidylcholines or hydroxysphingomyelins (OR_1SD = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.66–0.89), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine and taurine (OR_1SD = 0.72, 0.57–0.90), or lysophosphatidylcholines (OR_1SD = 0.81, 0.69–0.95) had lower risk of advanced stage prostate cancer at diagnosis, with no evidence of heterogeneity by follow-up time. Similar associations were observed for the two former patterns with aggressive disease risk (the more aggressive subset of advanced stage), while the latter pattern was inversely related to risk of prostate cancer death (OR_1SD = 0.77, 0.61–0.96). No associations were observed for prostate cancer overall or less aggressive tumor subtypes. In conclusion, metabolite patterns may be related to lower risk of more aggressive prostate tumors and prostate cancer death, and might be relevant to etiology of advanced stage prostate cancer.     

A hypothesis for reactivation of pulmonary tuberculosis: How thoracic wall shape affects the epidemiology of tuberculosis

This study was aimed at determining the cause for the high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) reactivation occurring in males with a low body mass index (BMI). Current thinking about pulmonary TB describes infection in the lung apex resulting in cavitation after reactivation. A different hypothesis is put forward for TB infection, suggesting that this occurs in subclinical apical cavities caused by increased pleural stress due to a low BMI body habitus. A finite element analysis (FEA) model of a lung was constructed including indentations for the first rib guided by paramedian sagittal CT reconstructions, and simulations were conducted with varying antero‐posterior (AP) diameters to mimic chests with a different thoracic index (ratio of AP to the transverse chest diameters). A Pubmed search was conducted about gender and thoracic index, and the effects of BMI on TB. FEA modeling revealed a tenfold increase in stress levels at the lung apex in low BMI chests, and a four‐fold increase with a low thoracic index, r² = 0.9748 P < 0.001. Low thoracic index was related to BMI, P = 0.001. The mean thoracic index was statistically significantly lower in males, P = 0.001, and increased with age in both genders. This article is the first to suggest a possible mechanism linking pulmonary TB reactivation to low BMI due to the flattened thoracic wall shape of young male adults. The low thoracic index in young males may promote TB reactivation due to tissue destruction in the lung apex from high pleural stress levels. Clin. Anat. 28:614–620, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.