Factors associated with 5-year risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women

Context  The 329 000 hip fractures that annually occur in the United States are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and cost. Identification of those at high risk is a step toward prevention. Objective  To develop an algorithm to predict the 5-year risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Design, Setting, and Participants  A total of 93 676 women who participated in the observational component of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a multiethnic longitudinal study, were used to develop a predictive algorithm based on commonly available clinical features. Selected factors that predicted hip fracture were then validated by 68 132 women who participated in the clinical trial. The model was tested in a subset of 10 750 women who had undergone dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans for bone mass density assessment. Main Outcome Measure  The prediction of centrally adjudicated hip fracture, measured by the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Results  During a mean (SD) follow-up of 7.6 (1.7) years, 1132 hip fractures were identified among women participating in the observational study (annualized rate, 0.16%), whereas during a mean follow-up of 8.0 (1.7) years, 791 hip fractures occurred among women participating in the clinical trial (annualized rate, 0.14%). Eleven factors predicted hip fracture within 5 years: age, self-reported health, weight, height, race/ethnicity, self-reported physical activity, history of fracture after age 54 years, parental hip fracture, current smoking, current corticosteroid use, and treated diabetes. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the algorithm had an area under the curve of 80% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77%-0.82%) when tested in the cohort of different women who were in the clinical trial. A simplified point score was developed for the probability of hip fracture. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing DXA-scan prediction based on a 10% subset of the cohort and the algorithm among those who participated the clinical trial were similar, with an area under the curve of 79% (95% CI, 73%-85%) vs 71% (95% CI, 66%-76%). Conclusion  This algorithm, based on 11 clinical factors, may be useful to predict the 5-year risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women of various ethnic backgrounds. Further studies are needed to assess the clinical implication of the algorithm in general and specifically to identify treatment benefits.      

Carbamazepine: a 'blind' assessment of CYP-associated metabolism and interactions in human liver-derived in vitro systems

1. The ability of various in vitro systems for CYP enzymes (computer modelling, human liver microsomes, precision-cut liver slices, hepatocytes in culture, recombinant enzymes) to predict various aspects of in vivo metabolism and kinetics of carbamazepine (CBZ) was investigated. 2. The study was part of the EUROCYP project that aimed to evaluate relevant human in vitro systems to study drug metabolism. 3. CBZ was given to the participating laboratories without disclosing its chemical nature. 4. The most important enzyme (CYP3A4) and metabolic route (10,11-epoxidation) were predicted by all the systems studied. 5. Minor enzymes and routes were predicted to a different extent by various systems. 6. Prediction of a clearance class, i.e. slow clearance, was correctly predicted by microsomes, slices, hepatocytes and recombinant enzymes (CYP3A4). 7. The 10,11-epoxidation of CBZ by the recombinant CYP3A4 was enhanced by the addition of exogenous cytochrome-b5, leading to a considerable over-prediction. 8. Induction potency of CBZ was predicted in cultured hepatocytes in which 7- ethoxycoumarin O-deethylase was used as an index activity. 9. It seems that for a principally CYP-metabolized substance such as CBZ, all liverderived systems provide useful information for prediction of metabolic routes, rates and interactions.     

Effectiveness of bisphosphonates on nonvertebral and hip fractures in the first year of therapy: The risedronate and alendronate (REAL) cohort study

Introduction Randomized clinical trials have shown that risedronate and alendronate reduce fractures among women with osteoporosis. The aim of this observational study was to observe, in clinical practice, the incidence of hip and nonvertebral fractures among women in the year following initiation of once-a-week dosing of either risedronate or alendronate. Methods Using records of health service utilization from July 2002 through September 2004, we created two cohorts: women (ages 65 and over) receiving risedronate (n = 12,215) or alendronate (n = 21,615). Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to compare the annual incidence of nonvertebral fractures and of hip fractures between cohorts, adjusting for potential differences in risk factors for fractures. Results There were 507 nonvertebral fractures and 109 hip fractures. Through one year of therapy, the incidence of nonvertebral fractures in the risedronate cohort (2.0%) was 18% lower (95% CI 2% – 32%) than in the alendronate cohort (2.3%). The incidence of hip fractures in the risedronate cohort (0.4%) was 43% lower (95% CI 13% – 63%) than in the alendronate cohort (0.6%). These results were consistent across a number of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion Patients receiving risedronate have lower rates of hip and nonvertebral fractures during their first year of therapy than patients receiving alendronate. This work was presented in part at the 28th annual meeting of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, Philadelphia, PA; September 15–19, 2006.     

Predicting fractures in an international cohort using risk factor algorithms without BMD

Clinical risk factors are associated with increased probability of fracture in postmenopausal women. We sought to compare prediction models using self‐reported clinical risk factors, excluding BMD, to predict incident fracture among postmenopausal women. The GLOW study enrolled women aged 55 years or older from 723 primary‐care practices in 10 countries. The population comprised 19,586 women aged 60 years or older who were not receiving antiosteoporosis medication and were followed annually for 2 years. Self‐administered questionnaires were used to collect data on characteristics, fracture risk factors, previous fractures, and health status. The main outcome measure compares the C index for models using the WHO Fracture Risk (FRAX), the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC), and a simple model using age and prior fracture. Over 2 years, 880 women reported incident fractures including 69 hip fractures, 468 “major fractures” (as defined by FRAX), and 583 “osteoporotic fractures” (as defined by FRC). Using baseline clinical risk factors, both FRAX and FRC showed a moderate ability to correctly order hip fracture times (C index for hip fracture 0.78 and 0.76, respectively). C indices for “major” and “osteoporotic” fractures showed lower values, at 0.61 and 0.64. Neither algorithm was better than the model based on age + fracture history alone (C index for hip fracture 0.78). In conclusion, estimation of fracture risk in an international primary‐care population of postmenopausal women can be made using clinical risk factors alone without BMD. However, more sophisticated models incorporating multiple clinical risk factors including falls were not superior to more parsimonious models in predicting future fracture in this population. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

An evaluation of semen characteristics in men 45 years of age or older after daily dosing with tadalafil 20mg: results of a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 9-month study

OBJECTIVES: Assess the effects on spermatogenesis of daily tadalafil 20mg over three spermatogenesis cycles in men >or= 45 yr. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, noninferiority study, healthy men (or with mild erectile dysfunction) were randomized to receive tadalafil 20mg (n=125) or placebo (n=128) for 9 mo followed by a 6-mo, treatment-free period. Semen and serum samples were provided at baseline and every 10-12 wk. The primary outcome was the proportion of subjects with >or= 50% reduction in sperm concentration at end point. Secondary outcomes included sperm concentration, number per ejaculate, motility and morphology; serum concentrations of testosterone, luteinizing and follicle-stimulating hormones; and tolerability. RESULTS: Of 253 men enrolled, 191 (75%) completed treatment phase: 2 of 96 (2.1%, placebo) and 12 of 95 (12.6%, tadalafil) subjects had >or= 50% reduction in sperm concentration. Tadalafil was noninferior to placebo because the upper 95% confidence interval for the difference in proportions of tadalafil and placebo subjects with a >or= 50% reduction in sperm concentration was 17.5%, significantly less than the prespecified noninferiority margin of 20% (p=0.015). Ninety-four percent (179 of 191) of men completed the 6-mo, treatment-free period: Baseline sperm concentration levels were restored in 8 of 12 (tadalafil) and 1 of 2 (placebo) men. There were no significant differences between groups in secondary end points. Common treatment-emergent adverse events were headache, back pain, dyspepsia, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and myalgia. Twelve (9.6%) tadalafil and seven (5.5%) placebo subjects discontinued because of adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated no deleterious effects of 9 mo of daily tadalafil 20mg on spermatogenesis or hormones related to testicular function in men >or= 45 yr.     

Treatment of Painful Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures with Percutaneous Vertebroplasty or Kyphoplasty

Vertebral fracture is the most common complication of osteoporosis. It results in significant mortality and morbidity, including prolonged and intractable pain in a minority of patients. Vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty, procedures that involve percutaneous injection of bone cement into a collapsed vertebra, have recently been introduced for treatment of osteoporotic patients who have prolonged pain (several weeks or longer) following vertebral fracture. To determine the details of the procedures and to gather information on their safety and efficacy, we performed a MEDLINE search using the terms “vertebroplasty” and “kyphoplasty.” We reviewed reports of these procedures in patients with osteoporosis. We supplemented the articles found with other papers known to the authors and with presentations at national meetings. Randomized trials of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty have not been reported. Case reports suggest that these procedures are associated with pain relief in 67% to 100% of cases. Short-term complications, mainly the result of extravasation of cement, include increased pain and damage from heat or pressure to the spinal cord or nerve roots. Proper patient selection and good technique should minimize complications, but rarely, decompressive surgery is needed. Long-term benefits have not yet been shown, but potentially include prevention of recurrent pain at the treated level(s) with both procedures, and, with kyphoplasty, reversal of height loss and spinal deformity, an improved level of function, and avoidance of chronic pain and restriction of internal organs. Possible long-term complications, again not fully evaluated, include local acceleration of bone resorption caused by the treatment itself or by foreign-body reaction at the cement–bone interface, and increased risk of fracture in treated or adjacent vertebrae through changes in mechanical forces. Controlled trials are needed to determine both short-term and long-term safety and efficacy of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty. Both procedures may be useful for osteoporotic patients who have prolonged pain following acute vertebral fracture. Until there is conclusive evidence for efficacy and long-term safety, these procedures should be done only in carefully selected patients, only by experienced operators with appropriate high-quality imaging equipment, and ideally at centers that are participating in controlled trials. Received: 26 January 2001 / Accepted: 21 February 2001