Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Mortality and Allocate Palliative Care for Older Patients With Hip Fracture

ObjectivesTo evaluate a machine learning model designed to predict mortality for Medicare beneficiaries aged >65 years treated for hip fracture in Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities (IRFs).DesignRetrospective design/cohort analysis of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility–Patient Assessment Instrument data.Setting and ParticipantsA total of 17,140 persons admitted to Medicare-certified IRFs in 2015 following hospitalization for hip fracture.MeasuresPatient characteristics include sociodemographic (age, gender, race, and social support) and clinical factors (functional status at admission, chronic conditions) and IRF length of stay. Outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. We trained and evaluated 2 classification models, logistic regression and a multilayer perceptron (MLP), to predict the probability of 30-day and 1-year mortality and evaluated the calibration, discrimination, and precision of the models.ResultsFor 30-day mortality, MLP performed well [acc = 0.74, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.76, avg prec = 0.10, slope = 1.14] as did logistic regression (acc = 0.78, AUROC = 0.76, avg prec = 0.09, slope = 1.20). For 1-year mortality, the performances were similar for both MLP (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.96) and logistic regression (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.95).Conclusion and ImplicationsA scoring system based on logistic regression may be more feasible to run in current electronic medical records. But MLP models may reduce cognitive burden and increase ability to calibrate to local data, yielding clinical specificity in mortality prediction so that palliative care resources may be allocated more effectively.     

A New Care Model Reduces Polypharmacy and Potentially Inappropriate Medications in Long-Term Care

ObjectivesAssess the impact of a new pharmaceutical care model on (1) polypharmacy and (2) potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) use in long-term care facilities (LTCFs).DesignPragmatic quasi-experimental study with a control group. This multifaceted model enables pharmacists and nurses to increase their professional autonomy by enforcing laws designed to expand their scope of practice. It also involves a strategic reorganization of care, interdisciplinary training, and systematic medication reviews.Setting and ParticipantsTwo LTCFs exposed to the model (409 residents) were compared to 2 control LTCFs (282 residents) in Quebec, Canada. All individuals were aged 65 years or older and residing in included LTCFs.MeasuresPolypharmacy (≥10 medications) and PIM (2015 Beers criteria) were analyzed throughout 12 months between March 2017 and June 2018. Groups were compared before and after implementation using repeated measures mixed Poisson or logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounding variables.ResultsOver 12 months, for regular medications, polypharmacy decreased from 42% to 20% (exposed group) and from 50% to 41% (control group) [difference in differences (DID): 13%, P < .001]. Mean number of PIMs also decreased from 0.79 to 0.56 (exposed group) and from 1.08 to 0.90 (control group) (DID: 0.05, P = .002).Conclusions and ImplicationsCompared with usual care, this multifaceted model reduced the probability of receiving ≥10 medications and the mean number of PIMs. Greater professional autonomy, reorganization of care, training, and medication review can optimize pharmaceutical care. As the role of pharmacists is expanding in many countries, this model shows what could be achieved with increased professional autonomy of pharmacists and nurses in LTCFs.     

Correction to: Health Literacy Within a Diverse Community-Based Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health - The original version of this article unfortunately contained a typo in co-author name.     

Rising Ethnic Inequalities in Acute Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease,New Zealand, 2000–2018

We describe trends in acute rheumatic fever (ARF), rheumatic heart disease (RHD), and RHD deaths among population groups in New Zealand. We analyzed initial primary ARF and RHD hospitalizations during 2000–2018 and RHD mortality rates during 2000–2016. We found elevated rates of initial ARF hospitalizations for persons of Māori (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 11.8, 95% CI 10.0–14.0) and Pacific Islander (aRR 23.6, 95% CI 19.9–27.9) ethnicity compared with persons of European/other ethnicity. We also noted higher rates of initial RHD hospitalization for Māori (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 2.9–3.5) and Pacific Islander (aRR 4.6, 95% CI 4.2–5.1) groups and RHD deaths among these groups (Māori aRR 12.3, 95% CI 10.3–14.6, and Pacific Islanders aRR 11.2, 95% CI 9.1–13.8). Rates also were higher in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods. To curb high rates of ARF and RHD, New Zealand must address increasing social and ethnic inequalities.     

COVID-19 and Infant Hospitalizations for Seasonal Respiratory Virus Infections,New Zealand, 2020

In March 2020, a national elimination strategy for coronavirus disease was introduced in New Zealand. Since then, hospitalizations for lower respiratory tract infection among infants <2 years of age and cases of respiratory syncytial or influenza virus infection have dramatically decreased. These findings indicate additional benefits of coronavirus disease control strategies.     

Social Determinants and COVID-19 in a Community Health Center Cohort

Associations between social determinants of health (SDOH), demographic factors including preferred language, and SARS-CoV-2 detection are not clear. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among those seeking testing for SARS-CoV-2 at a multi-site, urban community health center. Logistic regression and exact matching methods were used to identify independent predictors of SARS-CoV-2 detection among demographic, SDOH, and neighborhood-level variables. Of 1,361 included individuals, SARS-CoV-2 was detected among 266 (19.5%). Logistic regression demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 detection was less likely in White participants relative to Hispanic participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05–0.46). and more likely in patients who prefer Spanish relative to those that prefer English (aOR 2.04, 95% CI 1.43–2.96). No observed SDOH predicted SARS-CoV-2 detection in adjusted models. A robustness analysis using a matched subset of the study sample produced findings similar to those in the main analysis. Preferring to receive care in Spanish is an independent predictor of SARS-CoV-2 detection in a community health center cohort.

     

Prior Pelvic Osteotomy Affects the Outcome of Subsequent Total Hip Arthroplasty

BackgroundAlthough pelvic osteotomy (PO) is an important surgical procedure that can alleviate symptoms and potentially slow progression of osteoarthritis in patients with development dysplasia of the hip, some patients eventually require conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA). This study aimed to determine the outcome of conversion THA in patients with prior PO.MethodsForty nine patients with a history of prior PO who underwent conversion THA at a single institution were matched at a 1:3 ratio based on the date of surgery, age, gender, and body mass index with 147 developmental dysplasia of the hip patients who underwent primary THA without prior PO. A retrospective chart review was performed to compare outcomes at a minimum follow-up of 2 years.ResultsPatients with prior PO required more supplemental screw fixation for the acetabular component (59.2% vs 38.1%, P = .016), more autologous bone grafting (24.5% vs 11.6%, P = .048), had a longer mean operative time (106.0 vs 79.8 minutes, P < .001), and greater estimated blood loss (350.0 vs 206.8 mL, P = .015). Patients with prior PO had smaller cup version angle (26.0° vs 29.0°, P = .012) and greater discrepancy in the limb length (10.3 vs 7.26 mm, P = .041). Eight hips (16.3%) with prior PO and 6 (4.1%) without osteotomy required reoperation (P = .008). There was no difference in outcome scores at the latest follow-up.Conclusion: THA after prior PO is technically demanding, leading to longer operative times, greater blood loss, and variation in implant placement. Although functional outcomes are similar, THA after a prior PO is more likely to require reoperation.ConclusionTHA after prior PO is technically demanding, leading to longer operative times, greater blood loss, and variation in implant placement. Although functional outcomes are similar, THA after a prior PO is more likely to require reoperation.     

Ectopic Calcification and Hypophosphatemic Rickets: Natural History of ENPP1 and ABCC6 Deficiencies

Generalized arterial calcification of infancy (GACI) is a rare disorder caused by ENPP1 or ABCC6 variants. GACI is characterized by low pyrophosphate, arterial calcification, and high mortality during the first year of life, but the natural course and possible differences between the causative genes remain unknown. In all, 247 individual records for patients with GACI (from birth to 58.3 years of age) across 19 countries were reviewed. Overall mortality was 54.7% (13.4% in utero or stillborn), with a 50.4% probability of death before the age of 6 months (critical period). Contrary to previous publications, we found that bisphosphonate treatment had no survival benefit based on a start-time matched analysis and inconclusive results when initiated within 2 weeks of birth. Despite a similar prevalence of GACI phenotypes between ENPP1 and ABCC6 deficiencies, including arterial calcification (77.2% and 89.5%, respectively), organ calcification (65.8% and 84.2%, respectively), and cardiovascular complications (58.4% and 78.9%, respectively), mortality was higher for ENPP1 versus ABCC6 variants (40.5% versus 10.5%, respectively; p = 0.0157). Higher prevalence of rickets was reported in 70.8% of surviving affected individuals with ENPP1 compared with that of ABCC6 (11.8%; p = 0.0001). Eleven affected individuals presenting with rickets and without a GACI diagnosis, termed autosomal recessive hypophosphatemic rickets type 2 (ARHR2), all had confirmed ENPP1 variants. Approximately 70% of these patients demonstrated evidence of ectopic calcification or complications similar to those seen in individuals with GACI, which shows that ARHR2 is not a distinct condition from GACI but represents part of the spectrum of ENPP1 deficiency. Overall, this study identified an early mortality risk in GACI patients despite attempts to treat with bisphosphonates, high prevalence of rickets almost exclusive to ENPP1 deficiency, and a spectrum of heterogenous calcification and multiple organ complications with both ENPP1 and ABCC6 variants, which suggests an overlapping pathology. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR). This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.