Monitoring Information-Seeking Patterns and Obesity Prevalence in Africa With Internet Search Data: Observational Study

BackgroundThe prevalence of chronic conditions such as obesity, hypertension, and diabetes is increasing in African countries. Many chronic diseases have been linked to risk factors such as poor diet and physical inactivity. Data for these behavioral risk factors are usually obtained from surveys, which can be delayed by years. Behavioral data from digital sources, including social media and search engines, could be used for timely monitoring of behavioral risk factors.ObjectiveThe objective of our study was to propose the use of digital data from internet sources for monitoring changes in behavioral risk factors in Africa.MethodsWe obtained the adjusted volume of search queries submitted to Google for 108 terms related to diet, exercise, and disease from 2010 to 2016. We also obtained the obesity and overweight prevalence for 52 African countries from the World Health Organization (WHO) for the same period. Machine learning algorithms (ie, random forest, support vector machine, Bayes generalized linear model, gradient boosting, and an ensemble of the individual methods) were used to identify search terms and patterns that correlate with changes in obesity and overweight prevalence across Africa. Out-of-sample predictions were used to assess and validate the model performance.ResultsThe study included 52 African countries. In 2016, the WHO reported an overweight prevalence ranging from 20.9% (95% credible interval [CI] 17.1%-25.0%) to 66.8% (95% CI 62.4%-71.0%) and an obesity prevalence ranging from 4.5% (95% CI 2.9%-6.5%) to 32.5% (95% CI 27.2%-38.1%) in Africa. The highest obesity and overweight prevalence were noted in the northern and southern regions. Google searches for diet-, exercise-, and obesity-related terms explained 97.3% (root-mean-square error [RMSE] 1.15) of the variation in obesity prevalence across all 52 countries. Similarly, the search data explained 96.6% (RMSE 2.26) of the variation in the overweight prevalence. The search terms yoga, exercise, and gym were most correlated with changes in obesity and overweight prevalence in countries with the highest prevalence.ConclusionsInformation-seeking patterns for diet- and exercise-related terms could indicate changes in attitudes toward and engagement in risk factors or healthy behaviors. These trends could capture population changes in risk factor prevalence, inform digital and physical interventions, and supplement official data from surveys.     

“Putting Meat on the Bones”: Understanding the Implementation of a Community-Based Early Intervention and Prevention Programme—Contextual,Person, and Programme Influences

Prevention Science - The adoption and effective delivery of evidence-based interventions within “real-world” community-based, primary health care service settings are of crucial...     

Estimate of Burden and Direct Healthcare Cost of Infectious Waterborne Disease in the United States

Provision of safe drinking water in the United States is a great public health achievement. However, new waterborne disease challenges have emerged (e.g., aging infrastructure, chlorine-tolerant and biofilm-related pathogens, increased recreational water use). Comprehensive estimates of the health burden for all water exposure routes (ingestion, contact, inhalation) and sources (drinking, recreational, environmental) are needed. We estimated total illnesses, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs for 17 waterborne infectious diseases. About 7.15 million waterborne illnesses occur annually (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.88 million–12.0 million), results in 601,000 ED visits (95% CrI 364,000–866,000), 118,000 hospitalizations (95% CrI 86,800–150,000), and 6,630 deaths (95% CrI 4,520–8,870) and incurring US $3.33 billion (95% CrI 1.37 billion–8.77 billion) in direct healthcare costs. Otitis externa and norovirus infection were the most common illnesses. Most hospitalizations and deaths were caused by biofilm-associated pathogens (nontuberculous mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella), costing US $2.39 billion annually.     

Postmortem Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in Nasopharyngeal Mucosa

Analyses of infection chains have demonstrated that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is highly transmissive. However, data on postmortem stability and infectivity are lacking. Our finding of nasopharyngeal viral RNA stability in 79 corpses showed no time-dependent decrease. Maintained infectivity is supported by virus isolation up to 35 hours postmortem.     

Expression of activation markers on alveolar macrophages in allergic asthmatics after endobronchial or whole-lung allergen challenge

We examined the effect of endobronchial (EB) or whole-lung (WL) challenge with ragweed or Timothy grass extract on alveolar macrophage (AM) activation. Expression of 17 constitutive activation markers on AM was examined by flow cytometry. Late-phase bronchial obstruction was greater after WL challenge, while changes in bronchoalveolar lavage cytology (eosinophil accumulation) were greater after EB challenge. After EB challenge, levels of 10 of 17 markers (CD11a, CD11b, CD14, CD18, CD23, CD32, CD63, CD64, HLA-class I, and HLA-DR) were significantly increased (by 33-234%, P < 0.05). Six markers (CD16, CD29, CD33, CD35, CD44, CD71, and HLA-DQ) remained unchanged. Levels of seven markers following EB challenge (CD14, CD16, CD18, CD29, CD32, HLA-class I, and HLA DQ) correlated with airway sensitivity to methacholine. WL challenge only increased expression of HLA-class I. The different results obtained with the two challenge methods probably depend on higher local concentrations of allergen in the EB challenge. We suggest that activation of AM occurs following EB challenge with antigen in asthmatics.     

Mediodorsal thalamic lesions impair "reference" and "working" memory in rats

The present experiment evaluated the ability of rats with lesions in the thalamic mediodorsal nucleus (MD) to perform a task which differentiates between "reference" and "working" memory. In this task, only four of the arms of an 8-arm radial maze were baited, and animals were to restrict their entries to arms which were baited and to avoid never-baited arms. Despite several postoperative acquisition trials, rats with MD lesions did not acquire the task to a degree comparable to control subjects. Subjects with lesions continued to enter never-baited arms (reference memory errors) and to reenter baited arms (working memory errors). Given the lack of specificity in the behavioural impairment, the reference-working memory distinction seems to be an inappropriate one for characterizing the MD lesion deficit in rats. This deficit may involve an inability to use environmental stimuli to distinguish among arms of the maze, or an alteration in motor mechanisms.     

The changing flow of management information systems in long-term care facilities

Over the past three decades, the long-term care community has seen continual increases in the complexity and sophistication of management information systems. These changes have been brought about by the ever-increasing demands on owners and managers to provide accurate and timely data to both regulators and financial investors. The evolution of these systems has increased rapidly in recent years as the nation attempts to reinvent the funding mechanisms for long-term care.     

A season of football injuries

All rugby and soccer players presenting to the Accident & Emergency department during the football season 1992-1993 (a total of 871) were prospectively studied to compare the injuries sustained in the two sports. The nature and site of injury, treatment required, age, fitness, experience and position of the player, situation giving rise to injury, and medical attention at the grounds were all analysed. The results show that rugby and soccer players had the same number of injuries, and while there were some differences in the nature of the injuries, there was no difference in overall severity. Rugby flankers and soccer goalkeepers are particularly at risk. Competitive matches produce more injuries than training sessions. Experience or fitness did not appear to be a factor and 45% of rugby injuries and 15% of soccer injuries were from school matches. Law changes (e.g. the rugby scrum and the use of gum-shields) have reduced some injuries, but other areas (e.g. jumping for the ball in soccer, rucks and mauls in rugby) also warrant consideration. There was one death, but no spinal cord injuries. Medical attention at the grounds was limited. Rugby injuries, therefore, do not appear to be more numerous or severe than soccer injuries. Law changes have been of benefit but they need to be enforced and perhaps more should be considered. Medical attention at sports grounds could be improved and Registers of injuries kept by the sporting bodies would be of benefit.     

Classification of normal and pathological tremors using a multidimensional electromagnetic system

A new multidimensional movement analysis system was used to record limb tremor over six degrees-of-freedom, and signal processing techniques were explored to develop a suitable classification method to distinguish between different types of tremor. The specific aims were to investigate the ability of the system to screen for differences between normal subjects and a group of neurological patients, and then to differentiate between three diagnostic groups of patients.

Postural tremor at the hand was recorded in normal subjects (n=24) and patients with essential tremor (n=21), multiple sclerosis (n=17) and parkinsonism (n=19). Data were collected using a 3Space Fastrak^® (Polhemus, Inc.) over six degrees-of-freedom (three translational directions and three rotations). Spectral estimates produced measures of tremor frequency and amplitude. Mathematical models of the data, using autoregressive modelling and K-nearest neighbour classification, produced parameters used to classify, (1) the normal subjects and 24 patients (using the three rotational movements), and (2) the three patient groups (using all six movement directions). Results were given in terms of the probability of each subject belonging to the groups being classified.

Tremor frequency and amplitude showed large overlap between the groups. The screening classification produced high probabilities of correctly classifying normal subjects (>70%) and patients (>70%). The diagnostic classification produced clear differences between the patient groups (60% for essential tremor, 80% for multiple sclerosis and 60% for parkinsonism).

The ability of this assessment technique to distinguish between postural tremor in normal subjects and neurological patients suggests that it could be developed as a screening tool. Classification of tremors between the patients groups, with a high degree of sensitivity, indicates the potential for further development of the system as a diagnostic aid.