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Background

Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.

Objective

We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).

Study Design

Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.

Methods

From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).

Results

Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results.  相似文献   
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Introduction

Physician communication impacts patient outcomes. However, communication skills, especially around difficult conversations, remain suboptimal, and there is no clear way to determine the validity of entrustment decisions. The aims of this study were to 1) describe the development of a simulation-based mastery learning (SBML) curriculum for breaking bad news (BBN) conversation skills and 2) set a defensible minimum passing standard (MPS) to ensure uniform skill acquisition among learners.

Innovation

An SBML BBN curriculum was developed for fourth-year medical students. An assessment tool was created to evaluate the acquisition of skills involved in a BBN conversation. Pilot testing was completed to confirm improvement in skill acquisition and set the MPS.

Outcomes

A BBN assessment tool containing a 15-item checklist and six scaled items was developed. Students' checklist performance improved significantly at post-test compared to baseline (mean 65.33%, SD = 12.09% vs mean 88.67%, SD = 9.45%, P < 0.001). Students were also significantly more likely to have at least a score of 4 (on a five-point scale) for the six scaled questions at post-test. The MPS was set at 80%, requiring a score of 12 items on the checklist and at least 4 of 5 for each scaled item. Using the MPS, 30% of students would require additional training after post-testing.

Comments

We developed a SBML curriculum with a comprehensive assessment of BBN skills and a defensible competency standard. Future efforts will expand the mastery model to larger cohorts and assess the impact of rigorous education on patient care outcomes.  相似文献   
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Objective

To examine the experience of interracial anxiety among health professionals and how it may affect the quality of their interactions with patients from racially marginalized populations. We explored the influence of prior interracial exposure—specifically through childhood neighborhoods, college student bodies, and friend groups—on interracial anxiety among medical students and residents. We also examined whether levels of interracial anxiety change from medical school through residency.

Data Source

Web-based longitudinal survey data from the Medical Student Cognitive Habits and Growth Evaluation Study.

Study Design

We used a retrospective longitudinal design with four observations for each trainee. The study population consisted of non-Black US medical trainees surveyed in their 1st and 4th years of medical school and 2nd and 3rd years of residency. Mixed effects longitudinal models were used to assess predictors of interracial anxiety and assess changes in interracial anxiety scores over time.

Principal Findings

In total, 3155 non-Black medical trainees were followed for 7 years. Seventy-eight percent grew up in predominantly White neighborhoods. Living in predominantly White neighborhoods and having less racially diverse friends were associated with higher levels of interracial anxiety among medical trainees. Trainees' interracial anxiety scores did not substantially change over time; interracial anxiety was highest in the 1st year of medical school, lowest in the 4th year, and increased slightly during residency.

Conclusions

Neighborhood and friend group composition had independent effects on interracial anxiety, indicating that premedical racial socialization may affect medical trainees' preparedness to interact effectively with diverse patient populations. Additionally, the lack of substantial change in interracial anxiety throughout medical training suggests the importance of providing curricular tools and structure (e.g., instituting interracial cooperative learning activities) to foster the development of healthy interracial relationships.  相似文献   
66.

Background

In a pooled analysis of the phase 3 Controlled Myelofibrosis Study With Oral JAK Inhibitor Treatment I (COMFORT-I) and COMFORT-II clinical trials, adult patients with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis who received oral ruxolitinib at randomization or after crossover from placebo or best available therapy (BAT) had improved overall survival (OS).

Methods

This post hoc analysis of pooled COMFORT data examined relevant disease outcomes based on the disease duration (≤12 or >12 months from diagnosis) before ruxolitinib initiation.

Results

The analysis included 525 patients (ruxolitinib: ≤12 months, n = 84; >12 months, n = 216; placebo/BAT: ≤12 months, n = 66; >12 months, n = 159); the median age was 65.0–70.0 years. Fewer thrombocytopenia and anemia events were observed among patients who initiated ruxolitinib treatment earlier. At Weeks 24 and 48, the spleen volume response (SVR) was higher for patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (47.6% vs. 32.9% at Week 24, p = .0610; 44.0% vs. 26.9% at Week 48, p = .0149). In a multivariable analysis of factors associated with spleen volume reduction, a logistic regression model that controlled for confounding factors found that a significantly greater binary reduction was observed among patients with shorter versus longer disease duration (p = .022). At Week 240, OS was significantly improved among patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (63% [95% CI, 51%‒73%] vs. 57% [95% CI, 49%‒64%]; hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.01‒2.31; p = .0430). Regardless of disease duration, a longer OS was observed for patients who received ruxolitinib versus those who received placebo/BAT.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that earlier ruxolitinib initiation for adult patients with intermediate-2 and high-risk myelofibrosis may improve clinical outcomes, including fewer cytopenia events, durable SVR, and prolonged OS.

Plain Language Summary

  • Patients with myelofibrosis, a bone marrow cancer, often do not live as long as the general population. These patients may also have an enlarged spleen and difficult symptoms such as fatigue.
  • Two large clinical trials showed that patients treated with the drug ruxolitinib lived longer and had improved symptoms compared to those treated with placebo or other standard treatments.
  • Here it was examined whether starting treatment with ruxolitinib earlier (i.e., within a year of diagnosis) provided benefits versus delaying treatment.
  • Patients who received ruxolitinib within a year of diagnosis lived longer and experienced fewer disease symptoms than those whose treatment was delayed.
  相似文献   
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