Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

A tax reform strategy to deal with the uninsured

The high level of ininsurance in the United States is due in large measure to the tax treatment of health care, which is based on the tax exclusion for company-provided plans. Correcting the perverse incentives for providers and patients resulting from this tax treatment is the crucial step to creating a national health care system that is affordable and efficient. The Heritage Foundation proposal calls for the elimination of the current tax exclusion and its replacement with a system of refundable tax credits for the purchase of health insurance and medical services.     

Pattern of postprandial carbohydrate metabolism and effects of portal and peripheral insulin delivery

The importance of portal insulin delivery in the regulation of postprandial carbohydrate metabolism is uncertain. To address this question, three groups of dogs were studied: one group in which pancreatic venous drainage was transected and reanastomosed (portal insulin delivery), one in which the pancreatic drainage was transected and anastomosed to the inferior vena cava (peripheral insulin delivery), and one that received only a sham operation. Plasma insulin was greater (P less than 0.05) during peripheral insulin delivery than in either the portal or sham groups, respectively, before and after meal ingestion. On the other hand, C-peptide concentrations did not differ between groups, resulting in a higher (P less than 0.001) insulin to C-peptide ratio in the peripheral group. This indicated that the hyperinsulinemia in the peripheral group was due to decreased insulin clearance rather than increased insulin secretion. Isotopically determined splanchnic uptake of ingested glucose, postprandial suppression of hepatic glucose release, incorporation of CO2 into glucose (a qualitative measure of gluconeogenesis), and total-body glucose uptake were virtually identical in all groups. Similarly, plasma lipid, beta-hydroxybutyrate, and lactate concentrations did not differ between groups. Our data indicate that, despite differences in systemic insulin concentration, portal and peripheral insulin delivery comparably regulate hepatic and extrahepatic carbohydrate metabolism after meal ingestion.     

Comparison of Ampicillin-Sulbactam and Ticarcillin-Clavulanic Acid in Patients With Chronic Renal Failure: Effects of Differential Pharmacokinetics on Serum Bactericidal Activity

Study Objectives . To evaluate the pharmacodynamic antibacterial activity of ticarcillin-clavulanic acid (T-C) and ampicillin-sulbactam (A-S) combinations against reference bacterial strains in patients with end-stage renal disease maintained on long-term hemodialysis. Design . Randomized, crossover, controlled study. Setting . National Institutes of Health-funded general clinical research unit in a Veterans Administration Medical Center. Patients . Nine adult men with end-stage renal disease maintained on long-term hemodialysis. Two subjects did not complete the study due to problems of vascular access, and another withdrew for personal reasons. Interventions . On a nondialysis day, each subject was randomly administered either T-C 3.1 g or A-S 3 g as a slow intravenous infusion over 30 minutes. Serial blood samples were collected for measurement of antibiotic serum concentrations and determination of serum bactericidal titers. Following a washout period, the study was repeated with the alternative antibiotic combination. Measurements and Main Results . The mean observed apparent β-half-life of clavulanic acid was substantially shorter than that for the other three drugs. The bactericidal activity of both A-S and T-C against non-β-lactamase-producing (Nβ-LP) strains of S. aureus and E. coli was consistently high, as indicated by geometric mean SBTs of at least 1:5 at 24 hours. Against β-lactamase-producing (β-LP) S. aureus, the geometric mean SBTs for A-S were at least 1:25 throughout the study period, while the geometric mean SBTs for T-C decreased over 24 hours from 1:29 to 1:6. Against β-LP E. coli, the bactericidal activities for both A-S and T-C were poor, with geometric mean peak SBTs of only 1:6 and 1:3, respectively. The geometric mean SBT for T-C against this E. coli strain had declined to 1:1 at 6 hrs. Conclusion . Increasing the dosing interval for T-C in patients with end-stage renal disease may lead to periods of insufficient clavulanic acid to protect ticarcillin from β-lactamase degradation.     

International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research, 2005; Vol.14, No.3, 158–166. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.