Development of a predictive model for ross river virus disease in Brisbane, Australia

This paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985-2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (beta = 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.     

The impact of heatwaves on emergency department visits in Brisbane,Australia: a time series study

Introduction

The acute health effects of heatwaves in a subtropical climate and their impact on emergency departments (ED) are not well known. The purpose of this study is to examine overt heat-related presentations to EDs associated with heatwaves in Brisbane.

Methods

Data were obtained for the summer seasons (December to February) from 2000–2012. Heatwave events were defined as two or more successive days with daily maximum temperature ≥34°C (HWD1) or ≥37°C (HWD2). Poisson generalised additive model was used to assess the effect of heatwaves on heat-related visits (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes T67 and X30; ICD 9 codes 992 and E900.0).

Results

Overall, 628 cases presented for heat-related illnesses. The presentations significantly increased on heatwave days based on HWD1 (relative risk (RR) = 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.8, 6.3) and HWD2 (RR = 18.5, 95% CI: 12.0, 28.4). The RRs in different age groups ranged between 3–9.2 (HWD1) and 7.5–37.5 (HWD2). High acuity visits significantly increased based on HWD1 (RR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6) and HWD2 (RR = 81.7, 95% CI: 21.5, 310.0). Average length of stay in ED significantly increased by >1 hour (HWD1) and >2 hours (HWD2).

Conclusions

Heatwaves significantly increase ED visits and workload even in a subtropical climate. The degree of impact is directly related to the extent of temperature increases and varies by socio-demographic characteristics of the patients. Heatwave action plans should be tailored according to the population needs and level of vulnerability. EDs should have plans to increase their surge capacity during heatwaves.     

Spatial Patterns of Malaria Reported Deaths in Yunnan Province,China

Malaria has been a heavy social and health burden in the remote and poor areas in southern China. Analyses of malaria epidemic patterns can uncover important features of malaria transmission. This study identified spatial clusters, seasonal patterns, and geographic variations of malaria deaths at a county level in Yunnan, China, during 1991–2010. A discrete Poisson model was used to identify purely spatial clusters of malaria deaths. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect changes in geographic patterns. The results show that malaria mortality had declined in Yunnan over the study period and the most likely spatial clusters (relative risk [RR] = 23.03–32.06, P < 0.001) of malaria deaths were identified in western Yunnan along the China–Myanmar border. The highest risk of malaria deaths occurred in autumn (RR = 58.91, P < 0.001) and summer (RR = 31.91, P < 0.001). The results suggested that the geographic distribution of malaria deaths was significantly changed with longitude, which indicated there was decreased mortality of malaria in eastern areas over the last two decades, although there was no significant change in latitude during the same period. Public health interventions should target populations in western Yunnan along border areas, especially focusing on floating populations crossing international borders.     

安徽省儿童青少年高血压与体脂百分比关联性研究

目的 了解安徽省儿童青少年高血压的检出情况,分析其与体脂百分比的关联性。方法 对安徽省8 890名7~17岁中小学生进行了血压和皮褶厚度的测量,参考《中国高血压防治指南(2010年修订版)》中儿童高血压诊断标准评价儿童高血压情况,通过皮褶厚度计算体脂百分比。采用t检验、χ²检验和logistic回归分析体脂百分比与高血压的关联。结果 安徽省7~17岁中小学生高血压患病总人数(率)为1 210人(13.6%)。城市男生高血压患病率高于乡村男生,城市女生高血压总患病率高于乡村女生,城市男生高血压患病率高于城市女生,乡村男生高血压患病率高于乡村女生,差异均有统计学意义(χ²值分别为36.36、7.79、42.10和13.77,P<0.01)。城市男生体脂百分比高于乡村男生,城市女生显著高于乡村女生,差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。男女生在P₄₀~组和P₆₀~组OR值分别为1.65(95% CI:1.12~2.45)和1.75(1.27~2.42),男女生分别从体脂百分比P₄₀和P₆₀开始患病风险明显增加,且男女生的高血压患病风险总体上随着体脂百分比的增加而上升。结论 高体脂百分比会增加儿童青少年高血压患病风险。     

Association of alcohol use with problematic mobile phone use and depressive symptoms among college students in Anhui,China

Aim

Problematic mobile phone use (PMPU) is defined as an inability to regulate one’s use of the mobile phone, including excessive use, gradual increase in use to get the gratification, interference with school and other personal activities, and the need to avoid emotional alterations when mobile phone use is impeded. The potential health risks of PMPU have attracted increasing research attention. This study investigated the proportion of PMPU and the interactive effect of PMPU and depressive symptoms with alcohol use among college students in Anhui Province, China.

Subjects and methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 2,376 college students between May and June 2012. PMPU, depressive symptoms and alcohol use were measured by self-reported validated instruments. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the independent and interactive effects of PMPU and depressive symptoms with alcohol use.

Results

Results revealed the proportion of PMPU was 27.9 %, while the prevalence of depressive symptoms and alcohol use was 18.9 and 37.5 %, respectively. PMPU was significantly associated with alcohol use independently (OR?=?1.30, 95 % CI?=?1.04–1.61), and there was no significant increase with alcohol use in students with depressive symptoms (OR?=?1.18, 95 % CI?=?0.93–1.50). There was a multiplicative interaction between PMPU and depressive symptoms with alcohol use (OR?=?1.46, 95 % CI?=?1.04–2.03).

Conclusion

We conclude that there is a significant relationship between PMPU and alcohol use, and a significant multiplicative interactive effect of PMPU and depressive symptoms with alcohol use among college students, in Anhui, China. These findings may have important implications for designing and implementing mental health programs at universities.

     

Gaseous air pollution and emergency hospital visits for hypertension in Beijing,China: a time-stratified case-crossover study

Background  

A number of epidemiological studies have been conducted to research the adverse effects of air pollution on mortality and morbidity. Hypertension is the most important risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. However, few previous studies have examined the relationship between gaseous air pollution and morbidity for hypertension.     

七氟烷通过MAPK/STAT3信号通路诱导人口腔舌鳞状细胞癌Tca-8113细胞凋亡

目的:探究七氟烷对人舌鳞状细胞癌Tca-8113细胞的凋亡机制.方法:用2～10 μmol/L七氟烷作用体外培养人舌鳞状细胞癌Tca-8113细胞.MTT实验检测细胞活力;Hochest/PI双染法以及流式细胞术检测细胞凋亡;Western blot法检测MAPK/STAT3信号通路中相关蛋白表达含量的变化以及通过加入...     

资源有限地区艾滋病抗病毒治疗管理模式探讨

目的探索资源有限地区艾滋病抗病毒治疗的管理模式,观察抗病毒药物治疗效果。方法按照艾滋病病人地区分布的集散程度,采取不同的治疗管理模式,观察治疗的依从性和疗效。结果不同治疗模式均取得了良好效果,依从性和总有效率都在90％以上;经过6个月以上抗病毒治疗,CD4^ 淋巴细胞比未治疗患者显著升高。结论在农村地区按照艾滋病病人的不同分布,在资源许可的情况下,尽量将病人集中在上级医疗机构管理和治疗,对基层医疗机构采取定期巡诊或派驻医生的管理模式,是资源有限地区艾滋病抗病毒治疗的切实可行的管理模式。