A prognostic index to predict long-term mortality in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure stabilised on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors

BACKGROUND: Mortality in patients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure remains high. At present there is no easy way of identifying patients within this population at increased risk of death in the medium to long term. AIMS: To develop a prognostic index to identify outpatients with mild to moderate chronic heart failure at increased risk of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and fifty-three outpatients mean (S.D.) age 63(+/-10) years with symptoms of chronic heart failure (mean New York Heart Association functional class, 2.3(+/-0.5)), were recruited between December 1993 and April 1995. By April 2000, 201 patients had died. Using data from non-invasive measurements of cardiac size, electrical and autonomic function, renal function and plasma biochemistry we identified eight independent predictors of mortality (all P<0.01). To develop a prognostic index, predictors were dichotomised by group median and awarded 0 or 1 point accordingly. Serum sodium /=111 micromol/l (1 point), cardiothoracic ratio >/=0.52 (1 point), SDNN /=487 ms (1 point), QRS dispersion>/=42.7 ms (1 point), the presence of non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (1 point) and voltage criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead ECG (1 point). We calculated risk scores for patients by adding the points of each independent risk factor. In the low-risk group (0-3 points) mortality at 5 years was 20% and in the high-risk group (4-8 points) 53%. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve using dichotomised variables was 0.74 and for continuous model 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic index which uses eight non-invasive measurements and a straightforward additive points system, has good discrimination and stratifies outpatients with chronic heart failure into high and low risk. This index may be useful in clinical care and risk stratification.     

Colonoscopy at a combined district general hospital and specialist endoscopy unit: lessons from 505 consecutive examinations

Provisional reports from the Intercollegiate British Society of Gastroenterology National Colonoscopy audit show completion rates of 57-77% for the procedure and poor levels of training and supervision. We prospectively audited all aspects of colonoscopy performed at a combined district general hospital and specialist endoscopy unit. Details of referral, examination, endoscopist, complications and follow-up were recorded and patients were sent questionnaires for long-term follow-up. 505 patients (246 male) underwent colonoscopy by 27 different endoscopists. Their median age was 57 years (range 13-92) and 93% were outpatients. 64% patients were symptomatic and 36% were having surveillance or follow-up colonoscopy. The overall caecal intubation rate was 93%, with little difference between surgeons, physicians and experienced trainees (89%, 92%, 94%) and specialist endoscopists (98%). In only one case was an inexperienced trainee (<100 procedures) unsupervised. Pain scores estimated by the endoscopist were well matched with those given by the patient-medians 29 and 26 (maximum 100) respectively. Median satisfaction score was 96 (maximum 100). Polyp pick-up rate was 26.9% and there were 11 new cancers. 16 (3%) minor immediate complications were recorded-5 oversedation, 6 vasovagal attacks, 3 polypectomy haemorrhages and 2 mucosal injuries (neither requiring treatment). 3 patients died within 6 months of follow-up but no death was colonoscopy related. Completion rates in this setting were adequate for all endoscopists studied. Patient satisfaction with the procedure was high and very few immediate or long-term complications were encountered.     

United Kingdom national survey of the views of geriatric psychiatrists on the administration of electroconvulsive therapy to patients with fractures

Traditionally, psychiatrists have been cautious in administering electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) to patients with recent fractures. Drawing on the collective experience of geriatric psychiatrists in the United Kingdom may allow a better understanding of the use of ECT in fractures. The opinions of UK consultant geriatric psychiatrists on the use of ECT in the presence of recent fracture were acquired by a detailed questionnaire survey. Questionnaires were sent to 551 geriatric psychiatrists, and 306 (56%) usable responses were received. Twelve percent of geriatric psychiatrists had used ECT in fractures, and 55% would be prepared to administer ECT in the presence of fractures. They would seek specialist advice from anesthetists and orthopedic surgeons before, during, and after the administration of ECT. Geriatric psychiatrists generally did not seek advice from specialist ECT consultants. The researchers concluded that geriatric psychiatrists are prepared to administer ECT in the presence of fractures after seeking specialist advice from anesthetists and orthopedic surgeons.     

Mitochondrial disorders: a potentially under-recognized etiology of infantile spasms

Infantile spasms represent an age-dependent response of the immature brain to a wide variety of insults. An unselected group of children with infantile spasms were reviewed to determine etiology; a metabolic work-up was undertaken if the etiology was unclear from history and examination (cryptogenic). Of the 56 infants, 34 had a recognizable etiology (symptomatic), 1 had normal development (idiopathic), and 21 had cryptogenic infantile spasms. Among the latter, results of plasma lactate and pyruvate or urine organic acids were available in 17. In 2 infants (monozygotic twins), mitochondrial DNA testing revealed the relatively common A3243G mitochondrial mutation. In these twins and 11 of the remaining 15, body fluid metabolite testing suggested possible defective energy metabolism. Our twins and previous reports suggest that mitochondrial disorders should be considered in the differential diagnosis of infantile spasms. Among our cases remaining cryptogenic, signs of abnormal energy metabolism were prevalent, suggesting that metabolic derangements may be common causes or secondary consequences of infantile spasms.     

Vigabatrin for infantile spasms

We reviewed 20 infants receiving vigabatrin for infantile spasms. Patients were not enrolled in a formal study. All families obtained the medication abroad. Age at initiation of vigabatrin ranged from 1 to 48 months; nine infants had received prior treatment with various antiepileptic medications. Patients were begun on the lowest practical dose of 125-250 mg/day, with gradual daily increments to a target of 100 mg/kg/day, but maintained at the lowest effective dosage. Video electroencephalogram was obtained to document resolution of spasms and hypsarrhythmia. Of 20 infants, 12 responded with cessation of spasms and resolution of hypsarrhythmia, at doses of 25-135 mg/kg/day (median = 58 mg/kg/day). Partial responses were observed in six patients, whereas two had no response at 111 and 125 mg/kg/day. Additional new seizure types developed in three infants after initial response to vigabatrin. Increasing the vigabatrin did not have any clinical benefit. Vigabatrin is an effective, well-tolerated treatment for infantile spasms. The response is dose-independent, suggesting that starting at a low dose and gradually increasing, rather than beginning with an arbitrary 100 mg/kg/day dose is advantageous.     

Mammography uptake predictors in older women

BACKGROUND: In women aged under 65 years, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours are important predictors of mammography uptake. Little is known about whether these factors are important in older women. OBJECTIVE: To examine a broad range of mammography uptake predictors in women aged 65 and older registered with a London (UK) practice. METHODS: A survey of all female patients aged 65 and over (n = 613) in a south London practice included questions on mammography and cervical screening, general health and functional ability, socio-economic factors, mental health, health behaviours, and attitudes to health. Associations between mammography uptake and other factors were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: The response rate was 70% (432/613). Increased age was strongly associated with decreased mammography uptake. Additionally, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours (previous cervical smear, drinking alcohol and being a non-smoker) were independently predictive of mammography uptake. Measures of physical and mental health and health attitudes were not independent predictors. Restricting analyses to the oldest women, outside the national screening programme, gave very similar results. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of older women, socio-economic factors and general health behaviours were more predictive of mammography uptake than measures of physical and mental health or attitudes to health. Knowledge of these predictors is of increasing importance as the screening programme in the UK is extended up to age 70.