Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Evidence for motility and pinocytosis in ramified microglia in tissue culture

Ramified microglial cells were investigated in primary cultures of dissociated cerebral cortical tissue from rats. The identification of these cells was confirmed through immunohistochemical staining with 7 monoclonal antibodies selective for microglia. While there was significant variation in staining intensity with different antibodies, all stained the identified ramified cells; the antibodies OX-42 and ED1 yielded the most intense immunoreactivity. Based on distinctive morphological features, the microglia could be identified in living cultures where they were monitored using time-lapse video recording. This technique revealed extremely dynamic features of cellular plasticity and motility. Ramified microglia exhibited constant and rapid alterations in the size and shape of their cell body with an associated extension and retraction of processes; concomitantly, the cells moved about in a circumscribed area. These features of plasticity and motility were unique to this cell type, and correlated with OX-42 immunostaining. The microglia also possessed a differentially high level of pinocytotic activity; this too was correlated with OX-42 staining. From the nature of their morphological plasticity and motility, high pinocytosis, and cellular distribution, it is hypothesized that the ramified microglia specifically function as a system of fluid cleansing in normal brain tissue.     

Dipyridamole and RA-642 inhibit the production of superoxide anion and free radical damage to rat lens.

We studied the effects of dipyridamole and RA-642 on the production of superoxide anions and on oxygen radicals-induced lipid peroxidation in lens tissue homogenates from normal rats and rats given dipyridamole or RA-642 intraperitoneally. Superoxide production was evaluated by phenazine methosulphate (PMS)-induced nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) reduction and lipid peroxidation by ferrous sulfate and ascorbic acid (FeAs)-induced malondialdehyde (MDA) production. Dipyridamole and RA-642 showed an inhibitory effect on both assays in the experiments with lens tissue homogenates from untreated or treated rats. The extent of inhibition, however, was significantly higher in pyrimidopyrimidinic-treated rats (range of inhibition at different times of incubation was 18% versus 23-57% for dipyridamole and 14% versus 73-80% for RA-642 in the assay of MDA production, and 10% versus 33-37% for dipyridamole and 2.5% versus 11-32% for RA-642 in the assay of NBT reduction). Concentrations of dipyridamole and RA-642 in lens tissue from treated animals could not be determined (less than 0.001 micrograms/mg of tissue). Although both compounds inhibited lipid peroxidation induced by oxygen free radicals, the mechanism of action might include the role of adenosine as a mediator.     

Contributions of ovarian failure and aging to blood pressure in normotensive perimenopausal women: a mixed longitudinal study

Epidemiologic studies have shown that blood pressure increases more rapidly in middle-aged women than in middle-aged men. Whether or not ovarian failure contributes to this rapid rise is still not clear. In a follow-up study begun in 1979 and to continue for 10 years, the blood pressure of 193 healthy normotensive perimenopausal women, who lived in the mixed rural/industrial community of Ede, the Netherlands and who were initially aged between 49 and 56 years, was measured annually. During the course of the study, the onset of menopause of each participant could be established. Because of the mixed longitudinal design of the study, it was possible to evaluate the effects of both chronologic aging and time pre- or postmenopause on blood pressure. After the first seven years of follow-up, it was demonstrated that blood pressure did not increase in 168 women whose body weight was relatively stable. After multivariate analyses, systolic as well as diastolic pressure showed a significant negative relation (slope, 1.34 mmHg per year and 0.63 mmHg per year, respectively) with the years since menopause. On the other hand, the observed positive relation (slope, 0.81 mmHg per year) of systolic pressure with chronologic aging was not significant. No consistent association was found between diastolic pressure and chronologic aging. It is concluded that menopause cannot be regarded as a cause of hypertension; on the contrary, ovarian failure appears to have a protective effect on the increase in blood pressure as a result of chronologic aging. on the increase in blood pressure as a result of chronologic aging.