Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Fibreoptic bronchoscopy for tracheal and endobronchial intubation with a double-lumen tube

A 68-year-old patient was scheduled for a thoracotomy. A double-lumen endobronchial tube was requested by the surgeon to facilitate operating conditions. Initial attempts at intubation by conventional methods were unsuccessful. The proximal ends of a 37F double-lumen tube were then shortened and a 4-mm fibreoptic bronchoscope was passed through the bronchial lumen. The patient's larynx was easily visualized and the bronchoscope was passed into the trachea. The double lumen tube was then advanced over the bronchoscope and correctly positioned. Shortening a double-lumen tube allows the use of a fibreoptic bronchoscope to aid in tracheal intubation in a patient whose larynx is difficult to visualize by conventional methods.     

Evidence for motility and pinocytosis in ramified microglia in tissue culture

Ramified microglial cells were investigated in primary cultures of dissociated cerebral cortical tissue from rats. The identification of these cells was confirmed through immunohistochemical staining with 7 monoclonal antibodies selective for microglia. While there was significant variation in staining intensity with different antibodies, all stained the identified ramified cells; the antibodies OX-42 and ED1 yielded the most intense immunoreactivity. Based on distinctive morphological features, the microglia could be identified in living cultures where they were monitored using time-lapse video recording. This technique revealed extremely dynamic features of cellular plasticity and motility. Ramified microglia exhibited constant and rapid alterations in the size and shape of their cell body with an associated extension and retraction of processes; concomitantly, the cells moved about in a circumscribed area. These features of plasticity and motility were unique to this cell type, and correlated with OX-42 immunostaining. The microglia also possessed a differentially high level of pinocytotic activity; this too was correlated with OX-42 staining. From the nature of their morphological plasticity and motility, high pinocytosis, and cellular distribution, it is hypothesized that the ramified microglia specifically function as a system of fluid cleansing in normal brain tissue.     

Screening for psychosis in the general population with a self-report interview

This analysis applies methods of screening to the problem of psychosis. A probability sample of 810 individuals from the Eastern Baltimore Mental Health Survey was interviewed in the self-report modality with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule and shortly thereafter by a psychiatrist. It is shown that a configuration of responses in the self-report modality can screen moderately well for psychosis, as measured by psychiatrists in the clinical modality.     

Outcome assessment of Invisalign and traditional orthodontic treatment compared with the American Board of Orthodontics objective grading system.

INTRODUCTION: This treatment-outcome assessment objectively compares Invisalign (Align Technology, Santa Clara, Calif) treatment with braces. METHODS: This study, a retrospective cohort analysis, was conducted in New York, NY, in 2004. Records from 2 groups of 48 patients (Invisalign and braces groups) were evaluated by using methods from the American Board of Orthodontics Phase III examination. The discrepancy index was used to analyze pretreatment records to control for initial severity of malocclusion. The objective grading system (OGS) was used to systematically grade posttreatment records. Statistical analyses evaluated treatment outcome, duration, and strengths and weaknesses of Invisalign compared with braces. RESULTS: The Invisalign group lost 13 OGS points more than the braces group on average, and the OGS passing rate for Invisalign was 27% lower than that for braces. Invisalign scores were consistently lower than braces scores for buccolingual inclination, occlusal contacts, occlusal relationships, and overjet. Invisalign's OGS scores were negatively correlated to initial overjet, occlusion, and buccal posterior crossibite. Invisalign patients finished 4 months sooner than those with fixed appliances on average. P < .05 was used to determine statistically significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: According to the OGS, Invisalign did not treat malocclusions as well as braces in this sample. Invisalign was especially deficient in its ability to correct large anteroposterior discrepancies and occlusal contacts. The strengths of Invisalign were its ability to close spaces and correct anterior rotations and marginal ridge heights. This study might help clinicians to determine which patients are best suited for Invisalign treatment.     

Small proportions: what to report for confidence intervals?

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 2005; 14: 239–247.