Accuracy of a predictive model for severe hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C

AIM: To assess the accuracy of a model in diagnosing severe fibrosis/cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. METHODS: The model, based on the sequential combination of the Bonacini score (BS: ALT/AST ratio, platelet count and INR) and ultrasonography liver surface characteristics, was applied to 176 patients with chronic HCV infection. Assuming a pre-test probability of 35%, the model defined four levels of post-test probability of severe fibrosis/cirrhosis: <10% (low), 10-74% (not diagnostic), 75-90% (high) and >90% (almost absolute). The predicted probabilities were compared with the observed patients' distribution according to the histology (METAVIR). RESULTS: Severe fibrosis/cirrhosis was found in 67 patients (38%). The model discriminated patients in three comparable groups: 34% with a very high (>90%) or low (<10%) probability of severe fibrosis, 33% with a probability ranging from 75% to 90%, and 33% with an uncertain diagnosis (i.e., a probability ranging from 10% to 74%). The observed frequency of severe fibrosis/ cirrhosis was within the predefined ranges. CONCLUSION: The model can correctly identify 67% of patients with a high (>75%) or low (<10%) probability of cirrhosis, leaving only 33% of the patients still requiring liver biopsy.     

Maternal administration of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor improves neonatal rat survival after a lethal group B streptococcal infection

Maternally administered recombinant human granulocyte colony- stimulating factor (rhG-CSF) has been shown to cross the placenta and induce a peripheral neutrophilia and increases in the marrow and spleen neutrophil storage pools in fetal and newborn rats. In the present study, we have used this model system to investigate the efficacy of prenatally administered rhG-CSF on neonatal defense to a lethal challenge with Group B-beta hemolytic Streptococcus (GBS). Pregnant rats were injected with rhG-CSF twice daily beginning 6 days before parturition. At birth, all pups were infected with a dose of GBS that is lethal for 90% of infected pups (LD90). Survival was monitored daily for 5 days. Survival of infected pups from saline-treated mothers beyond 60 hours after infection was 10%. No difference in survival was observed among pups from mothers treated 2 and 4 days before parturition. In contrast, we determined that survival was 82.5% among infected pups from mothers treated for 6 days before parturition with rhG-CSF. Our results demonstrate that maternal administration of rhG- CSF augments neonatal defenses against a lethal bacterial challenge.