Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Autonomy and modernisation: the management of change in an English primary care trust

Recent New Labour policy for the ‘modernisation’ of Government places a good deal of emphasis on decentralisation. This emphasis is particularly marked in relation to the organisation of primary care. However, like hospitals and other National Health Service institutions, primary care trusts (PCTs) are subject to a substantial raft of centrally established performance targets and indicators, including those which contribute to the public award of between zero and three performance ‘stars’. This raises questions about the extent to which employees can exercise autonomy in the context of rigid top‐down directives. This paper presents findings from a study using participant observation and interviews to examine the impact of a training course aimed ostensibly at increasing employee autonomy in an English PCT. The suggestion is that attempts to make employees more autonomous can be seen as a strategy for increasing central control based upon the internalisation by the employees of centrally promulgated values. The attraction of such strategies is that they may be potentially more effective and less costly than alternative strategies of direct control. However, the study suggests that the outcome of attempts by such methods as programmes to increase employee autonomy may be very different from those intended.     

Daily changes in presynaptic cholinergic activity of rat sympathetic superior cervical ganglion

The in vitro capacity of sympathetic superior cervical ganglia (SCG) to take up [³H]choline from the extracellular medium, to synthesize acetylcholine from [³H]choline, and to release [³H]acetylcholine in response to a high K⁺ concentration, were examined in rats throughout a 24-h cycle. Both the release of [³H]acetylcholine and the synthesis of [³H]acetylcholine from [³H]choline exhibited significant diurnal variations, showing maxima during the first half of the night. After these maxima, nocturnal acetylcholine release and synthesis decayed to daytime levels and remained low until the end of the night. [³H]Choline uptake by rat SCG did not vary significantly throughout a 24-h period. A 1.5-h exposure of rats to darkness at the 5th hour of light phase of the daily photoperiod did not change significantly any parameter studied. A 20-min, 5-Hz, electrical stimulation of the preganglionic trunk of SCG excised from rats at noon increased significantly subsequent K⁺-induced [³H]acetylcholine release but did not change [³H]acetylcholine synthesis. In decentralized SCG of rats subjected to a unilateral SCG decentralization and a contralateral sham-operation 7 days earlier, [³H]acetylcholine release and synthesis were highly reduced or abolished at the decentralized side, while [³H]choline uptake remained unaltered. The present results suggest that an activation of preganglionic rat SCG neurons takes place during the first half of the scotophase.