Risk assessment in COVID‐19: Prognostic importance of cardiovascular parameters

BackgroundCardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities are highly prevalent among COVID‐19 patients and are associated with worse outcomes.HypothesisWe therefore investigated if established cardiovascular risk assessment models could efficiently predict adverse outcomes in COVID‐19. Furthermore, we aimed to generate novel risk scores including various cardiovascular parameters for prediction of short‐ and midterm outcomes in COVID‐19.MethodsWe included 441 consecutive patients diagnosed with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Patients were followed‐up for 30 days after the hospital admission for all‐cause mortality (ACM), venous/arterial thromboembolism, and mechanical ventilation. We further followed up the patients for post‐COVID‐19 syndrome for 6 months and occurrence of myocarditis, heart failure, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and rhythm events in a 12‐month follow‐up. Discrimination performance of DAPT, GRACE 2.0, PARIS‐CTE, PREDICT‐STABLE, CHA2‐DS2‐VASc, HAS‐BLED, PARIS‐MB, PRECISE‐DAPT scores for selected endpoints was evaluated by ROC‐analysis.ResultsOut of established risk assessment models, GRACE 2.0 score performed best in predicting combined endpoint and ACM. Risk assessment models including age, cardiovascular risk factors, echocardiographic parameters, and biomarkers, were generated and could successfully predict the combined endpoint, ACM, venous/arterial thromboembolism, need for mechanical ventilation, myocarditis, ACS, heart failure, and rhythm events. Prediction of post‐COVID‐19 syndrome was poor.ConclusionRisk assessment models including age, laboratory parameters, cardiovascular risk factors, and echocardiographic parameters showed good discrimination performance for adverse short‐ and midterm outcomes in COVID‐19 and outweighed discrimination performance of established cardiovascular risk assessment models.     

Management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 in adolescent and young women

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate regression rates among adolescents (aged < or =21) with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 managed expectantly and to determine factors associated with disease regression. DESIGN: Cohort study using a colposcopic database of 2,996 women seen between August 1999 and November 2005. SETTING: Colposcopy clinic in urban, tertiary care medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Adolescents with CIN 2. Routine management consisted of two options: immediate treatment or repeat colposcopic evaluation in 6 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For those managed conservatively, regression was defined either as a subsequent normal colposcopy and/or biopsy and at least 2 smears read as negative for epithelial abnormality or at least 3 consecutive negative smears if repeat colposcopy was not performed. Demographic information, including age, was assessed to determine possible associations with disease regression. RESULTS: Of the 93 adolescents, 53 (57%) elected to undergo immediate treatment with a diagnostic excisional procedure, and 40 (43%) chose management with colposcopic follow-up. Of those treated, high-grade disease (CIN 2+) was found in 40 (75%). Of the 36 young women followed conservatively (4 were lost to follow-up), regression after a median follow-up time of 378 days was documented in 14 (39%). Of the 22 adolescents not fulfilling our criteria for regression, only 3 had evidence of CIN 2 or worse during follow-up. The remaining 19 had either CIN 1 or mildly abnormal cytologic results. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates indicated younger age (< or =16 years) tended to be associated with decreased time to regression. CONCLUSION: Based on significant regression of CIN 2 among adolescent women, primary management in this population should consist of cytologic and colposcopic follow-up.     

Uterine artery Doppler in the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review publications, published during the past year, that have examined uterine artery Doppler findings in women with adverse pregnancy outcome. RECENT FINDINGS: Almost two-thirds of stillbirths that occur in the early preterm period (up to 32 weeks) can be predicted by uterine artery Doppler at 23 weeks. First trimester screening studies have shown that an abnormal result increases the risk of subsequent fetal growth restriction, and such women are at particularly high risk when indices remain abnormal in the second trimester. Studies combining uterine artery Doppler with maternal serum markers have demonstrated that measurement of first-trimester maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin improve sensitivities of second-trimester Doppler. As these are frequently measured in Down syndrome screening and they lend themselves in screening for pre-eclampsia. Women with abnormal first and second-trimester serum markers constitute a high-risk group. Maternal serum placental protein 13 remains a promising method for early screening, although a recent study suggests lower sensitivities than initially reported. SUMMARY: Uterine artery Doppler screening identifies women at high risk for developing adverse pregnancy outcomes. Detection rates may be increased and false positive rates reduced by combination with maternal characteristics or serum markers.     

Differential Effects of Obesity,Hyperlipidaemia, Dietary Intake and Physical Inactivity on Type I versus Type IV Allergies

Background: Alongside metabolic diseases (esp. obesity), allergic disorders are becoming increasingly prevalent. Since both obesity and allergies are highly impacted by environmental determinants, with this study we assessed the potential link between metabolic implications and two distinct types of allergies. Methods: Using cross-sectional data from the German FoCus cohort, n = 385 allergy cases, either hay fever (=type I allergy, n = 183) or contact allergy (=type IV allergy, n = 202) were compared to age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects (1:1 ratio, in total n = 770) regarding their metabolic phenotype, diet, physical activity, sleep, gut microbial composition, and serum metabolite profile using suitable BMI-adjusted models. Results: Obesity and metabolic alterations were found significantly more prevalent in subjects with allergies. In fact, this relation was more pronounced in contact allergy than hay fever. Subsequent BMI-adjusted analysis reveals particular importance of co-occurring hyperlipidaemia for both allergy types. For contact allergy, we revealed a strong association to the dietary intake of poly-unsaturated fatty acids, particularly α-linolenic acid, as well as the enrichment of the corresponding metabolic pathway. For hay fever, there were no major associations to the diet but to a lower physical activity level, shorter duration of sleep, and an altered gut microbial composition. Finally, genetic predisposition for hyperlipidaemia was associated to both contact allergy and hay fever. Conclusions: Reflected by higher allergy prevalence, our findings indicate an impaired immune response in obesity and hyperlipidaemia, which is differentially regulated in type I and type IV allergies by an unfavourable lifestyle constellation and subsequent microbial and metabolic dysfunctions.     

Sewage sludge and liquid pig manure as possible sources of antibiotic resistant bacteria

Within the last decades, the environmental spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria has become a topic of concern. In this study, liquid pig manure (n=305) and sewage sludge (n=111) - used as agricultural fertilizers between 2002 and 2005 - were investigated for the presence of Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium. Bacteria were tested for their resistance against 40 chemotherapeutics including several “reserve drugs”. E. coli (n=613) from pig manure were at a significantly higher degree resistant to streptomycin, doxycycline, spectinomycin, cotrimoxazole, and chloramphenicol than E. coli (n=116) from sewage sludge. Enterococci (Ent. faecalis, n=387, and Ent. faecium, n=183) from pig manure were significantly more often resistant to high levels of doxycycline, rifampicin, erythromycin, and streptomycin than Ent. faecalis (n=44) and Ent. faecium (n=125) from sewage sludge. Significant differences in enterococcal resistance were also seen for tylosin, chloramphenicol, gentamicin high level, fosfomycin, clindamicin, enrofloxacin, moxifloxacin, nitrofurantoin, and quinupristin/dalfopristin. By contrast, aminopenicillins were more effective in enterococci from pig manure, and mean MIC-values of piperacillin+tazobactam and third generation cefalosporines were significantly lower in E. coli from pig manure than in E. coli from sewage sludge. 13.4% (E. coli) to 25.3% (Ent. faecium) of pig manure isolates were high-level multiresistant to substances from more than three different classes of antimicrobial agents. In sewage sludge, high-level-multiresistance reached from 0% (Ent. faecalis) to 16% (Ent. faecium). High rates of (multi-) resistant bacteria in pig manure emphasize the need for a prudent - cautious - use of antibiotics in farm animals.     

Intellectual property rights and traditional medicine: policy dilemmas at the interface

Traditional medicines play an important role in the provision of health care in many developing countries. Their use is also significant in developed countries, increasing their commercial value. Several 'high-profile' cases of patenting of traditional medicines, without consent from or compensation to their holders, have further focussed attention on their importance. Traditional medicine usually involves biological resources and the knowledge of local and indigenous peoples and/or healers regarding their medicinal use; thus, it is interlinked with biodiversity conservation and indigenous peoples' rights over their knowledge and resources. At this multi-faceted interface, complex ethical questions arise. This article provides an overview and discussion of key issues, dilemmas and challenges. It points to possible modifications and at ways to devise new forms of intellectual property ownership that may better suit the needs of those who seek to protect traditional medicine. Yet it also questions whether such protection, which may restrict access, is the preferred option.While intellectual property protection for traditional medicines has multiple and diverse objectives, the priorities are often not clear and the strategies which could be deployed may interfere with each other, as well as with the prioritization of objectives. This is further aggravated by differences in stakeholders' concepts on ownership of knowledge and by uncertain or paradoxical effects of some potentially useful strategies. Thus, policymakers should address the multiple, multi-layered issues and questions, and try to develop a range of solutions in order to address and balance the various objectives and interests.     

Efficacy of a spatial repellent for control of Aedes-borne virus transmission: A cluster-randomized trial in Iquitos,Peru

Over half the world’s population is at risk for viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue and Zika. The primary vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives in urban environments. Despite decades of effort, cases and geographic range of Aedes-borne viruses (ABVs) continue to expand. Rigorously proven vector control interventions that measure protective efficacy against ABV diseases are limited to Wolbachia in a single trial in Indonesia and do not include any chemical intervention. Spatial repellents, a new option for efficient deployment, are designed to decrease human exposure to ABVs by releasing active ingredients into the air that disrupt mosquito–human contact. A parallel, cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Iquitos, Peru, to quantify the impact of a transfluthrin-based spatial repellent on human ABV infection. From 2,907 households across 26 clusters (13 per arm), 1,578 participants were assessed for seroconversion (primary endpoint) by survival analysis. Incidence of acute disease was calculated among 16,683 participants (secondary endpoint). Adult mosquito collections were conducted to compare Ae. aegypti abundance, blood-fed rate, and parity status through mixed-effect difference-in-difference analyses. The spatial repellent significantly reduced ABV infection by 34.1% (one-sided 95% CI lower limit, 6.9%; one-sided P value = 0.0236, z = 1.98). Aedes aegypti abundance and blood-fed rates were significantly reduced by 28.6 (95% CI 24.1%, ∞); z = −9.11) and 12.4% (95% CI 4.2%, ∞); z = −2.43), respectively. Our trial provides conclusive statistical evidence from an appropriately powered, preplanned cluster-randomized controlled clinical trial of the impact of a chemical intervention, in this case a spatial repellent, to reduce the risk of ABV transmission compared to a placebo.

Aedes-borne viral diseases (ABVDs) [e.g., dengue (DENV), chikungunya, Zika (ZIKV), and yellow fever] are devastating, expanding global public health threats that disproportionally affect low- and middle-income countries. DENV, one of the most rapidly increasing vector-borne infectious diseases, results in ∼400 million infections each year (1, 2), with 4 billion people at risk for infection annually (3). Currently, the primary means for ABVD prevention is controlling the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Existing vector control interventions, however, have failed to prevent ABV transmission and epidemics (4–6).There is an urgent need to develop evidence-based guidance for the use of new and existing ABV vector control tools. The evidence base for vector control against ABVs is weak, despite considerable government investments in World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended control of larval habitats (larviciding, container removal) and ultra-low-volume insecticide spraying (4, 5, 7–9). These strategies continue to be implemented despite the lack of rigorously generated data from controlled clinical trials demonstrating they reduce ABV infection or disease (6). The only ABV intervention with a proven epidemiological impact in a cluster-randomized control trial (cRCT) assessed community mobilization to reduce mosquito larval habitats (10). A recent test-negative trial with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reported a significant reduction of DENV illness in Indonesia (11).Spatial repellents (SRs) are devices that contain volatile active ingredients that disperse in air. The active ingredients can repel mosquitoes from entering a treated space, inhibit attraction to human host cues, or disrupt mosquito biting and blood-feeding behavior and, thus, interfere with mosquito–human contact (12–14). Any of these outcomes reduce the probability of pathogen transmission. Pyrethroid-based SRs have shown efficacy in reducing malaria infections in China (15) and Indonesia (16). There have, however, been no clinical trials evaluating the protective efficacy (PE) of SRs against ABV infection or disease.To generate evidence for public health consideration, we conducted a double-blinded, parallel cRCT to demonstrate and quantify the PE of a transfluthrin-based SR to reduce ABV infection incidence over 2 y in a human cohort in Iquitos, Peru.