Increasing the efficiency of Monte Carlo cohort simulations with variance reduction techniques.

The authors discuss techniques for Monte Carlo (MC) cohort simulations that reduce the number of simulation replications required to achieve a given degree of precision for various output measures. Known as variance reduction techniques, they are often used in industrial engineering and operations research models, but they are seldom used in medical models. However, most MC cohort simulations are well suited to the implementation of these techniques. The authors discuss the cost of implementation versus the benefit of reduced replications.     

Management of asthma in patients supervised by primary care physicians or by specialists.

French asthma patients may be supervised by general practitioners (GPs) and/or specialists. Therefore, this study examined asthma management in patients exclusively supervised by specialists (SPE), GPs, (GP) and both (GP+SPE group), and compared the findings. Asthma patients were consecutively recruited in 348 pharmacies. Each patient completed a questionnaire providing data on personal characteristics, asthma management, perception of disease and asthma supervision. Asthma control was measured using the Asthma Control Test. Questionnaires were linked to computerised records of medications which had been dispensed before inclusion in the study. From the 1,256 patients (mean age = 36.1 yrs, 54.3% females), 11.4, 36.6, and 52.0% were placed in the SPE, GP, and GP+SPE groups, respectively. During the previous 4 weeks, most patients in the SPE group were properly controlled (52.2 versus 26.4 and 21.5% in GP and GP+SPE groups, respectively). The SPE group made more use of fixed combinations of long-acting beta agonist and inhaled corticosteroid, while receiving less short-acting beta agonists, antitussives and antibiotics. Striking differences in symptoms and asthma management were observed according to the type of asthma supervision. The current results strongly support the need to improve the management of asthma in primary care, and the coordination of care between general practitioners and specialists.     

Die Behandlung der Apophysenabrissverletzung des Epicondylus ulnaris im Kindesalter

OBJECTIVE: Surgical reduction and retention of apophyseal avulsion injuries at the medial epicondyle to prevent joint instability, lasting malalignment, or pseudarthrosis. INDICATIONS: Absolute: intraarticular apophyseal dislocation of the medial epicondyle, complete lesion of the ulnar nerve. Relative: dislocation of the apophysis (> 4 mm) in children > 5 years of age; the need for intervention increases in children as the degree of dislocation, age, and athletic activity increase. CONTRAINDICATIONS: Dislocation of the medial epicondyle (< or = 4 mm) in children < 5 years of age, provided the fragment location is not intraarticular. SURGICAL TECHNIQUE: Open reduction of the apophysis through a medial approach. Identification of the ulnar nerve. In young children or with small fragments fixation with Kirschner wire. Screw fixation in older children or for larger fragments. POSTOPERATIVE MANAGEMENT: Long upper-arm plaster cast until wound healing is achieved. Subsequently, upper-arm plaster cast for 3 weeks. Removal of Kirschner wires after 4-6 weeks, screw removal after 8-12 weeks. Physiotherapy only if marked reduction of elbow mobility is found 6 weeks after cast removal. RESULTS: From January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2003, 25 children with an average age of 12 years suffering from medial epicondylar avulsion fractures were operated on using open reduction and Kirschner wire fixation. An average of 3 years after the injury 14 of these children underwent follow-up examination using a procedure that took subjective, clinical and radiologic parameters into account. Two children showed a slight reduction in overall strength of the injured extremity when compared with the contralateral extremity. One child had a flexion deficit of 10 degrees, all other children showed movement limitations of < or = 5 degrees compared to the contralateral extremity. In all the cases available to follow-up, there was a slight increase in valgus alignment of the elbow joint compared with the uninjured side (3 degrees on average). All fractures consolidated within 6 weeks.     

Cause-specific and total mortality in the Canterbury (New Zealand) insulin-treated Diabetic Registry population: a 15-year follow-up study.

AIMS: To establish all-cause and cause-specific death rates, and risk factors for mortality in insulin-treated diabetic individuals living in the province of Canterbury, New Zealand. METHODS: Insulin-treated diabetic subjects (n = 995) on the Canterbury Diabetes Registry were followed up over 15 years and vital status determined. Death rates were standardized and hazard regression was used to model the effects of demographic covariates on relative survival time. RESULTS: There were 419 deaths in 11 226.3 person-years of follow-up with a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.2). Relative mortality was greatest for the group aged 0-29 years (SMR 3.0 (95% CI 2.4-3.7)). After controlling for diabetes duration and gender, a 10-year increment in age of onset was associated with a 33% decrease in relative hazard (95% CI 29-36%), indicating that excess mortality due to diabetes declines with rising age of onset. After controlling for age of onset and gender, each 10-year increment in duration of diabetes is associated with a 26% decrease in relative hazard (95% CI 24-29%), indicating that with longer survival the mortality hazard approaches the general population hazard. Relative mortalities were increased for cardiovascular, renal and respiratory disease, but not malignancy. Relative mortality from acute metabolic complications was increased in the subgroup with age of onset of diabetes < 30 years and requiring insulin within 1 year of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates are high for insulin-treated diabetic individuals relative to the general population.