Predictive power of various models for longitudinal attachment level change

Abstract Several statistical models that have been suggested in the periodontal literature for describing longitudinal attachment level changes, such as the gradual loss, single-burst, multiple-burst, and random walk models as well as other models introduced in this paper are compared by their power to predict future attachment loss. The data used in this analysis is from 1061 sites of 8 subjects, with moderate to severe periodontal disease, monitored monthly for about a year. This study found that none of the suggested models could significantly outperform the naive mean predictor, which predicts the future attachment level from the past mean. It was also found that no single model, such as the burst, gradual, or random walk, together with measurement error can fully explain the variation in the data. These results indicate that in the course of one year, the attachment level change may not follow the same model. Consequently, a model that fits well to past data cannot be accurately extended to the future.     

Social and reproductive characteristics of the first 100 couples treated by in vitro fertilisation programme at National Women's Hospital, Auckland

Reproductive and social histories of the first 100 patients attending the in vitro fertilisation (IVF) programme at National Women's Hospital, Auckland, have been studied. The average age at first treatment was 31.6 (SD 3.9) for women, and 34.2 (4.6) for men. The couples had been married 7.6 (3.3) years and had experienced 6.7 (3.2) years infertility. It was a second marriage for 16. The husbands had on average a higher social classing than the population (class: number [population]--1:16 (7%), 2:18 (14%), 3:42 (28%), 4:19 (29%), 5:4 (14%), 6:1 (8%); but this bias diminished in the next 159 couples. Nine couples withdrew before their quota of cycles, 7 from stress. Tubal disease was the cause of infertility in 93, but in 69 its origin was untraceable. In 22 it could be attributed to pelvic inflammatory disease (eight associated with IUCDs and 2 with sexually transmitted disease) and in two to sterilisation. Although 59 women had a history of having conceived, only 34 were parous, and only 11 had a child of the current union.     

Single photon emission computed tomography using 99mTc-HM-PAO in the routine evaluation of Alzheimer's disease

Regional cerebral blood flow was studied in 7 patients with clinically suspected Alzheimer's disease and 10 normal controls by single photon computed emission tomography (SPECT) using HM-PAO. All patients with Alzheimer's disease and no controls had parietal lobe hypoperfusion which was usually bilateral. In patients with more severe dementia hypoperfusion extended into the frontal lobes. Parietal lobe hypoperfusion corresponds to parietal lobe degeneration which is the one of the first neocortical regions to show the typical degenerative changes of Alzheimer's disease. SPECT with HM-PAO is a non-invasive investigation available in most nuclear medicine departments and complements existing tests in the routine evaluation of patients presenting with dementia.     

Quantitative comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and histologic analyses of focal ischemic damage in the rat

Hemispheric swelling and area of infarction, two parameters of cerebral focal ischemic damage, were identified and quantified from T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) two days after occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCAO) in spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) brains. Results were compared with these measures quantified from 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium hydrochloride (TTC)- and hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained histologic sections in the same brains. The degree of hemispheric swelling and infarct size determined by MRI were highly correlated to the measurements as determined in the TTC- and H&E-stained tissues. These results demonstrate that the focal ischemic damaged area and associated tissue swelling identified by MRI is quantitatively similar to, and thus, is representative of actual tissue damage/changes that can be identified by gross or histologic examination.     

Autosomal dominant transmission of isolated congenital vertical talus

We report vertical transmission of isolated congenital vertical talus through three generations of a Honduran family. Five of nine affected family members were examined and the diagnosis was confirmed radiographically. There was incomplete penetrance in one clinically unaffected woman with two affected children. Bilateral and unilateral involvement was seen with a wide range of severity. Based on this family and on cases reviewed from the literature, we propose that isolated congenital vertical talus can be inherited as an autosomal dominant trait with variable expression and incomplete penetrance.     

MEASUREMENT OF NORMAL HUMAN AIRWAYS RESPONSE TO β-ADRENOCEPTOR STIMULATION USING A FORCED OSCILLATION TECHNIQUE

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the responsiveness of normal human airways to beta-adrenoceptor stimulation using a forced oscillation technique. Seven normal volunteers (aged 25 +/- 2 year) were studied on three occasions, separated by weekly intervals, using a single-blind randomized design. On day 1, subjects were given cumulative doses of inhaled salbutamol (100, 200, 500, 1000 micrograms); and identical placebo was given on the other two visits. Respiratory oscillation impedance (Ros) was measured at baseline and 15 min after each dose increment. The coefficients of variation (CV) for short-term intra-individual variability on each placebo day were 7.5 and 9.5, and 9.6% for long-term variability (measured over all three visits). The 95% confidence values (2SD) for the change in Ros required to exclude natural variability were 0.39, 0.50 and 0.53 cmH2O l-1 s, respectively. There was a small fall in Ros in response to salbutamol although the mean maximum change (0.46 cmH2O l-1 s) was not significant (by ANOVA). Thus, the change in Ros (sensitivity) was no greater than the 95% confidence value for natural variability (reproducibility). Regression analysis also showed no evidence of a dose-response relationship for Ros.