Time to death and health expenditure: an improved model for the impact of demographic change on health care costs

BACKGROUND: Obtaining well-founded estimates of the effect of demographic change on future health expenditures is a pressing issue in all developed countries. Thus far, expenditure projections have examined the effect of age on health care costs, but fail to account for the influence of remaining life expectancy on costs. OBJECTIVE: This paper seeks to create a more accurate projection model that considers the concentration of costs towards the end of life, and to compare this model with the more traditional approach that holds age- and sex-specific per capita expenditures constant. METHODS: We used a longitudinal hospital dataset which followed 90 929 patients aged 65 and older from 1970 to death, to create an economic model of hospital costs based on patient age and time remaining to death. We then applied the model to England population projections to predict the effect of demographic changes on hospital expenditures from 2002 to 2026. RESULTS: The decline in age-specific mortality rates over time postpones death to later ages, pushing back death-related costs. Accounting for this in expenditure projections gave a predicted annual growth rate of 0.40%-half of the rate predicted with a traditional method. CONCLUSIONS: Using richer data and more refined methods than have hitherto been employed, this study strongly confirms that the pressure of population increases and ageing demographic structure on hospital expenditures will be partially countered by the postponement of death-related hospital costs to later in life-a finding consistent with emerging epidemiological evidence, and heartening for policy makers and physicians alike.     

Optimizing the management of patients with spinal myeloma disease

Myeloma is one of the most common malignancies that results in osteolytic lesions of the spine. Complications, including pathological fractures of the vertebrae and spinal cord compression, may cause severe pain, deformity and neurological sequelae. They may also have significant consequences for quality of life and prognosis for patients. For patients with known or newly diagnosed myeloma presenting with persistent back or radicular pain/weakness, early diagnosis of spinal myeloma disease is therefore essential to treat and prevent further deterioration. Magnetic resonance imaging is the initial imaging modality of choice for the evaluation of spinal disease. Treatment of the underlying malignancy with systemic chemotherapy together with supportive bisphosphonate treatment reduces further vertebral damage. Additional interventions such as cement augmentation, radiotherapy, or surgery are often necessary to prevent, treat and control spinal complications. However, optimal management is dependent on the individual nature of the spinal involvement and requires careful assessment and appropriate intervention throughout. This article reviews the treatment and management options for spinal myeloma disease and highlights the value of defined pathways to enable the proper management of patients affected by it.     

Pregnant Women Living with HIV (WLH) Supported at Clinics by Peer WLH: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Throughout Africa, Peer Mentors who are women living with HIV (WLH) are supporting pregnant WLH at antenatal and primary healthcare clinics (McColl in BMJ 344:e1590, 2012). We evaluate a program using this intervention strategy at 1.5 months post-birth. In a cluster randomized controlled trial in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, eight clinics were randomized for their WLH to receive either: standard care (SC), based on national guidelines to prevent mother-to-child transmission (4 clinics; n = 656 WLH); or an enhanced intervention (EI; 4 clinics; n = 544 WLH). The EI consisted of four antenatal and four postnatal small group sessions led by Peer Mentors, in addition to SC. WLH were recruited during pregnancy and 70 % were reassessed at 1.5 months post-birth. EI’s effect was ascertained on 16 measures of maternal and infant well-being using random effects regressions to control for clinic clustering. A binomial test for correlated outcomes evaluated EI’s overall effectiveness. Among EI WLH reassessed, 87 % attended at least one intervention session (mean 4.1, SD 2.0). Significant overall benefits were found in EI compared to SC using the binomial test. However, it is important to note that EI WLH were significantly less likely to adhere to ARV during pregnancy compared to SC. Secondarily, compared to SC, EI WLH were more likely to ask partners to test for HIV, better protected their infants from HIV transmission, and were less likely to have depressed mood and stunted infants. Adherence to clinic intervention groups was low, yet, there were benefits for maternal and infant health at 1.5 months post-birth.     

Rare copy number variation in cerebral palsy

Recent studies have established the role of rare copy number variants (CNVs) in several neurological disorders but the contribution of rare CNVs to cerebral palsy (CP) is not known. Fifty Caucasian families having children with CP were studied using two microarray designs. Potentially pathogenic, rare (<1% population frequency) CNVs were identified, and their frequency determined, by comparing the CNVs found in cases with 8329 adult controls with no known neurological disorders. Ten of the 50 cases (20%) had rare CNVs of potential relevance to CP; there were a total of 14 CNVs, which were observed in <0.1% (<8/8329) of the control population. Eight inherited from an unaffected mother: a 751-kb deletion including FSCB, a 1.5-Mb duplication of 7q21.13, a 534-kb duplication of 15q11.2, a 446-kb duplication including CTNND2, a 219-kb duplication including MCPH1, a 169-kb duplication of 22q13.33, a 64-kb duplication of MC2R, and a 135-bp exonic deletion of SLC06A1. Three inherited from an unaffected father: a 386-kb deletion of 12p12.2-p12.1, a 234-kb duplication of 10q26.13, and a 4-kb exonic deletion of COPS3. The inheritance was unknown for three CNVs: a 157-bp exonic deletion of ACOX1, a 693-kb duplication of 17q25.3, and a 265-kb duplication of DAAM1. This is the first systematic study of CNVs in CP, and although it did not identify de novo mutations, has shown inherited, rare CNVs involving potentially pathogenic genes and pathways requiring further investigation.