Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.     

Genetic predisposition for adult lactose intolerance and relation to diet, bone density, and bone fractures.

Evidence that genetic disposition for adult lactose intolerance significantly affects calcium intake, bone density, and fractures in postmenopausal women is presented. PCR-based genotyping of lactase gene polymorphisms may complement diagnostic procedures to identify persons at risk for both lactose malabsorption and osteoporosis. INTRODUCTION: Lactase deficiency is a common autosomal recessive condition resulting in decreased intestinal lactose degradation. A -13910 T/C dimorphism (LCT) near the lactase phlorizin hydrolase gene, reported to be strongly associated with adult lactase nonpersistence, may have an impact on calcium supply, bone density, and osteoporotic fractures in the elderly. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined LCT genotypes TT, TC, and CC in 258 postmenopausal women using a polymerase chain reaction-based assay. Genotypes were related to milk intolerance, nutritional calcium intake, intestinal calcium absorption, bone mineral density (BMD), and nonvertebral fractures. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent of all women were found to have CC genotypes and genetic lactase deficiency. Age-adjusted BMD at the hip in CC genotypes and at the spine in CC and TC genotypes was reduced by -7% to -11% depending on the site measured (p = 0.04). LCT(T/C-13910) polymorphisms alone accounted for 2-4% of BMD in a multiple regression model. Bone fracture incidence was significantly associated with CC genotypes (p = 0.001). Milk calcium intake was significantly lower (-55%, p = 0.004) and aversion to milk consumption was significantly higher (+166%, p = 0.01) in women with the CC genotype, but there were no differences in overall dietary calcium intake or in intestinal calcium absorption test values. CONCLUSION: The LCT(T/C-13910) polymorphism is associated with subjective milk intolerance, reduced milk calcium intake, and reduced BMD at the hip and the lumbar spine and may predispose to bone fractures. Genetic testing for lactase deficiency may complement indirect methods in the detection of individuals at risk for both lactose malabsorption and osteoporosis.     

Cisplatin-5-fluorouracil chemotherapy for advanced inoperable squamous carcinoma of the head and neck

Patients with locally advanced, inoperable squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were offered three courses of cisplatin and 96-h 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) infusion. Subsequent therapy included surgery when feasible, irradiation therapy, and a maintenance program of methotrexate (MTX)-5-FU. Thirty-three patients were evaluated prospectively. Seven patients underwent a single course of chemotherapy. Five patients underwent two courses of chemotherapy. Twenty-one patients underwent three courses of adjuvant chemotherapy. The overall response rate was 48% (16 of 33). Fifteen of 21 patients (76%) receiving three courses of chemotherapy evidenced a response; this included three complete responses (CRs) (9%). No responses were seen in patients receiving only one or two courses of chemotherapy. Among responding patients, the initial favorable response to chemotherapy was apparent after the first course of chemotherapy. Patients who failed to demonstrate any response after two courses of chemotherapy did not respond after a third course. A significant group of patients fail to respond and should be offered participation in other investigational protocols as they become available.     

Rheological characterisation of dextran-concanavalin A mixtures as a basis for a self-regulated drug delivery device.

The rheological characterisation of glucose sensitive mixtures containing dextran and concanavalin A (con A) with and without glucose, was undertaken using oscillatory rheometry at 20 and 37 degrees C so that comparative data could be gathered in the linear viscoelastic (LVE) range. Measurements for a series of mixtures showed that complex viscosity is a function not only of the con A concentration but of the content and molecular weight of the dextran used. The extent of liquefaction on addition of glucose also depended on these factors. The tan delta profiles confirmed the change from semi-solid towards fluid behaviour. This occurs when glucose effects dismantling of the three-dimensional structure of the dextran-con A system by competitive binding to the glucose receptors in the protein. For the mixtures studied, the changes occurred between contents of 0 and 1% (w/w) glucose at 20 and 37 degrees C and form a useful basis for the formulation of a self-regulating delivery device for the control of hyper-and hypoglycaemia in diabetes.